Bayesian Model Search for Nonstationary Periodic Time Series

We propose a novel Bayesian methodology for analyzing nonstationary time series that exhibit oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the time series using a piecewise oscillatory model with unknown periodicities, where our goal is to estimate the change-points while simultaneously identifying the potentially changing periodicities in the data. Our proposed methodology is based on a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that simultaneously updates the change-points and the periodicities relevant to any segment between them. We show that the proposed methodology successfully identifies time changing oscillatory behaviour in two applications which are relevant to e-Health and sleep research, namely the occurrence of ultradian oscillations in human skin temperature during the time of night rest, and the detection of instances of sleep apnea in plethysmographic respiratory traces.Comment: Received 23 Oct 2018, Accepted 12 May 201

Stochastic reaction networks with input processes: Analysis and applications to reporter gene systems

Stochastic reaction network models are widely utilized in biology and chemistry to describe the probabilistic dynamics of biochemical systems in general, and gene interaction networks in particular. Most often, statistical analysis and inference of these systems is addressed by parametric approaches, where the laws governing exogenous input processes, if present, are themselves fixed in advance. Motivated by reporter gene systems, widely utilized in biology to monitor gene activation at the individual cell level, we address the analysis of reaction networks with state-affine reaction rates and arbitrary input processes. We derive a generalization of the so-called moment equations where the dynamics of the network statistics are expressed as a function of the input process statistics. In stationary conditions, we provide a spectral analysis of the system and elaborate on connections with linear filtering. We then apply the theoretical results to develop a method for the reconstruction of input process statistics, namely the gene activation autocovariance function, from reporter gene population snapshot data, and demonstrate its performance on a simulated case study