Operational guidelines for assessing the impact of agricultural research on livelihoods. Good practices from CIMMYT

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the UK and its determinants: A spatial econometric approach

Photovoltaic (PV) panels offer significant potential for contributing to the UK's energy policy goals relating to decarbonisation of the energy system, security of supply and affordability. The substantive drop in the cost of panels since 2007, coupled with the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Scheme in 2010, has resulted in a rapid increase in installation of PV panels in the UK, from 26.5MWp in 2009 to over 5GW by the end of 2014. Yet there has been no comprehensive analysis of the determinants of PV deployment in the UK. This paper addresses this gap by employing spatial econometrics methods to a recently available data set at a fine geographical detail. Following a traditional regression analysis, a general to specific approach has been adopted where spatial variations in the relationships have been examined utilising the spatial Durbin model using the cross-sectional data relating to the UK NUTS level 3 data. Empirical results indicate that demand for electricity, population density, pollution levels, education level of households and housing types are among the factors that affect PV uptake in a region. Moreover Lagrange Multiplier test results indicate that the spatial Durbin model may be properly applied to describe the PV uptake relationship in the UK as there are significant regional spillover effects

Identification of Network Externalities in Markets for Non-Durables

This paper introduces a structural econometric model of consumer demand for non-durable goods, which exhibits network externalities. The structural model allows us to identify the parameters, which determine the strength of the externalities in the underlying economic model from the empirical estimation results. The estimates of these parameters can then be employed to test the economic significance of the externalities and the compatibility of networks. The identifying assumption that drives our results is that consumers care about the lagged instead of the current network size. We argue that it does not necessarily bound their rationality. To complete our structural model, we provide an example of functional specification that yields a simple linear stochastic model of demand. Using this functional specification, we identify all structural parameters of the model. In the end, the estimation and the stochastic structure of the resulting econometric model are discussed. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - ( Identifikation der Netzwerkeffekten in den Märkten für nicht-dauerhafte Güter) Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt ein strukturelles ökonometrisches Modell der Konsumnachfrage für nicht-dauerhafte Güter mit externen Netzwerkeffekten vor. Das strukturelle Modell lässt uns die Parameter von Netzwerkeffekten im zugrunde liegenden ökonomischen Modell empirisch zu identifizieren. Die Schätzer der Strukturparameter könnten für das Testen der Netzwerkkompatibilität und der ökonomischen Signifikanz der Netzwerkeffekte verwendet werden. Für die Identifikation nehmen wir an, dass die Konsumenten die Netzwerksgröße verzögert wahrnehmen. Wir argumentieren, dass diese Annahme nicht notwendigerweise mit irrationalem Verhalten gleichzusetzen ist. Um das strukturelle Modell zu vollständigen, geben wir eine funktionale Spezifikation, aus der ein lineares stochastisches Nachfragemodell folgt. Unter Verwendung dieser Spezifikation sind alle Strukturparameter von dem Modell identifiziert. Zum Schluss diskutieren wir die Schätzung und die stochastische Struktur des sich ergebenden ökonometrischen Modells.Structural Econometric Model, Network Externalities, Innovation Diffusion

Assessing the Lead Market Potential of Countries for Innovation Projects

This paper presents an approach to assessing the potential of countries to increase the likelihood that locally preferred innovation designs become successful in other countries, too. The concept suggests that for many innovations lead markets exist that initiate the international diffusion of a specific design of an innovation. Once a specific innovation design has been adopted by users in the lead market chances are that it subsequently becomes adopted by users in other countries as well. Lead markets can be utilised for the development of global innovation designs. By focusing on the design of the innovation which responds to the preferences within the lead market, a company can leverage the success experienced in the lead market for global market launch. In order to follow a lead market strategy of new product development, it is necessary to assess the lead market potential of countries before an innovation is developed and tested in the market. This paper presents an indicator-based methodology that approximates the lead market attributes of countries. This assessment methodology was applied to two innovation projects at the truck division of DaimlerChrysler AG. The method produces information that is of importance for the development phase and the market launch of globally standardised innovations.Innovation, Global Diffusion, Market Entry

Investigating international new product diffusion speed: A semiparametric approach

Global marketing managers are interested in understanding the speed of the new product diffusion process and how the speed has changed in our ever more technologically advanced and global marketplace. Understanding the process allows firms to forecast the expected rate of return on their new products and develop effective marketing strategies. The most recent major study on this topic [Marketing Science 21 (2002) 97--114] investigated new product diffusions in the United States. We expand upon that study in three important ways. (1) Van den Bulte notes that a similar study is needed in the international context, especially in developing countries. Our study covers four new product diffusions across 31 developed and developing nations from 1980--2004. Our sample accounts for about 80% of the global economic output and 60% of the global population, allowing us to examine more general phenomena. (2) His model contains the implicit assumption that the diffusion speed parameter is constant throughout the diffusion life cycle of a product. Recognizing the likely effects on the speed parameter of recent changes in the marketplace, we model the parameter as a semiparametric function, allowing it the flexibility to change over time. (3) We perform a variable selection to determine that the number of internet users and the consumer price index are strongly associated with the speed of diffusion.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS519 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Impact of Lean, Agile and Green (LAG) on Business Competitiveness:An Empirical Study of Fast Moving Consumer Goods Businesses

The adoption/utilisation of Lean, Agile and Green (LAG) practices in both the manufacturing and service sector is rising. However, there yet remain a research gap to precisely evaluate the relationship between LAG practices and business competitiveness (e.g, achieving reduction in cost, lead time and environmental recyclable waste). This research aims to explore this relationship, specifically in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) businesses. The hypothesised relationships are tested with data collected from 96 FMCG companies. Structural Equation Modelling is applied to evaluate different channels of achieving business competitiveness through the adoption of Lean, Agile and Green. The findings suggest that competitive outcomes vary with the adoption of LAG practices in specific product life cycle stages. This implies that awareness of the product life cycle concept is essential. A combination of LAG practices for the sole purpose of reducing environmental waste is negatively related to environmental waste reduction. LAG practices are more efficiently adopted when the adopters are equipped with expert knowledge on the paradigms and their individual practices. This research has approached the attainment of competitiveness in the FMCG businesses by analysing management efforts that improve cost performance, lead time and environmental sustainability aspects of business operations. The research has also considered the product life cycle stages in analysing the impacts of management efforts.N/

Studying Multi-Stage Diffusion Dynamics using Epidemic Modeling Framework

Buying process has always carried a two-fold perspective with itself. On one hand, it is important for individuals and on other hand it is equally important for the firms to deliver the perfect need and want to the customer. Amongst this entire process, awareness along with positive motivation towards the product; plays an equally significant role in strategizing the plans for any company. Plenty of models have been proposed and many would be in the pipeline that have talked about the connectivity of these processes and their impact on the final adoption. In the current work, these processes have been studied through the analogy taken from epidemic modelling framework. Furthermore, an approximation method; Range Kutta of 4th order has been utilized to come to a near approximate solution to the otherwise available non-closed form solution. The proposed modelling framework is validated on real-life data sets and the results depict the existence and presence of various stages under consideration

General cost analysis for scholarly communication in Germany : results of the "Houghton Report" for Germany

Management Summary: Conducted within the project “Economic Implications of New Models for Information Supply for Science and Research in Germany”, the Houghton Report for Germany provides a general cost and benefit analysis for scientific communication in Germany comparing different scenarios according to their specific costs and explicitly including the German National License Program (NLP). Basing on the scholarly lifecycle process model outlined by Björk (2007), the study compared the following scenarios according to their accounted costs: - Traditional subscription publishing, - Open access publishing (Gold Open Access; refers primarily to journal publishing where access is free of charge to readers, while the authors or funding organisations pay for publication) - Open Access self-archiving (authors deposit their work in online open access institutional or subject-based repositories, making it freely available to anyone with Internet access; further divided into (i) CGreen Open Access’ self-archiving operating in parallel with subscription publishing; and (ii) the ‘overlay services’ model in which self-archiving provides the foundation for overlay services (e.g. peer review, branding and quality control services)) - the NLP. Within all scenarios, five core activity elements (Fund research and research communication; perform research and communicate the results; publish scientific and scholarly works; facilitate dissemination, retrieval and preservation; study publications and apply the knowledge) were modeled and priced with all their including activities. Modelling the impacts of an increase in accessibility and efficiency resulting from more open access on returns to R&D over a 20 year period and then comparing costs and benefits, we find that the benefits of open access publishing models are likely to substantially outweigh the costs and, while smaller, the benefits of the German NLP also exceed the costs. This analysis of the potential benefits of more open access to research findings suggests that different publishing models can make a material difference to the benefits realised, as well as the costs faced. It seems likely that more Open Access would have substantial net benefits in the longer term and, while net benefits may be lower during a transitional period, they are likely to be positive for both ‘author-pays’ Open Access publishing and the ‘over-lay journals’ alternatives (‘Gold Open Access’), and for parallel subscription publishing and self-archiving (‘Green Open Access’). The NLP returns substantial benefits and savings at a modest cost, returning one of the highest benefit/cost ratios available from unilateral national policies during a transitional period (second to that of ‘Green Open Access’ self-archiving). Whether ‘Green Open Access’ self-archiving in parallel with subscriptions is a sustainable model over the longer term is debateable, and what impact the NLP may have on the take up of Open Access alternatives is also an important consideration. So too is the potential for developments in Open Access or other scholarly publishing business models to significantly change the relative cost-benefit of the NLP over time. The results are comparable to those of previous studies from the UK and Netherlands. Green Open Access in parallel with the traditional model yields the best benefits/cost ratio. Beside its benefits/cost ratio, the meaningfulness of the NLP is given by its enforceability. The true costs of toll access publishing (beside the buyback” of information) is the prohibition of access to research and knowledge for society

Spatial Effects in Energy-Efficient Residential HVAC Technology Adoption

Preprint; final version published as: Noonan, D. S., Hsieh, L.-H. C., & Matisoff, D. (2013). Spatial Effects in Energy-Efficient Residential HVAC Technology Adoption. Environment and Behavior, 45(4), 476–503. doi:10.1177/0013916511421664If your neighborhood adopts greener, energy-efficient residential heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, will your proenvironmental behavior become contagious, spilling over into adjacent neighborhoods’ HVAC adoptions? Objective data on more than 300,000 detailed single-family house sale records in the Greater Chicago area from 1992 to 2004 are aggregated to census block-group neighborhoods to answer that question. Spatial lag regression models show that spatial dependence or “contagion” exists for neighborhood adoption of energy-efficient HVACs. Specifically, if 625 of 726 homes in a demonstration neighborhood upgraded to green HVAC, data of this study predict that at least 98 upgrades would occur in adjacent neighborhoods, more than doubling their baseline adoption rates. This spatial multiplier substantially magnifies the effects of factors affecting adoption rates. These results have important policy implications, especially in the context of new standards for neighborhood development, such as Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) or Low-Impact Development standards