Rural and suburban population surge following detonation of an improvised nuclear device: A new model to estimate impact

Background: The objective of the study was to model urban evacuation into surrounding communities after the detonation of an improvised nuclear device (IND) to assist rural and suburban planners in understanding and effectively planning to address the effects of population surges. Methods: Researchers developed parameters for how far evacuees would travel to escape disasters and factors that would influence choice of destination from studies of historical evacuations, surveys of citizens' evacuation intentions in hypothetical disasters, and semistructured interviews with key informants and emergency preparedness experts. Those parameters became the inputs to a "push-pull" model of how many people would flee in the 4 scenarios and where they would go. Results: The expanded model predicted significant population movements from the New York City borough of Manhattan and counties within 20 km of Manhattan to counties within a 150-mi radius of the assumed IND detonation. It also predicted that even in some communities located far from Manhattan, arriving evacuees would increase the population needing services by 50% to 150%. Conclusions: The results suggest that suburban and rural communities could be overwhelmed by evacuees from their center city following an IND detonation. They also highlight the urgency of educating and communicating with the public about radiation hazards to mitigate panic and hysteria, anticipating the ways in which a mass exodus may disrupt or even cripple rescue and response efforts, and devising creative ways to exercise and drill for an event about which there is great denial and fatalism

Getting Serious About Games - Using Video Game-based Learning to Enhance Nuclear Terrorism Preparedness

This thesis proposes the development of a video game platform to increase the publics knowledge of required protective actions in the event of a nuclear terrorism attack. Current scientific analyses have identified elementary steps the public should take to increase the likelihood of survival in the event of a nuclear terrorism incident; however, a knowledge gap currently exists with regard to the publics understanding of these required actions. Unfortunately, todays preparedness initiatives do not have the efficacy required to impact significant improvements in this area. Video games, more specifically a sub-genre of games known as serious games, are uniquely postured to address this knowledge gap. Not only do video games provide a motivating, enriching and engaging educational medium, but also they are unique in that they address the emerging educational needs of todays games generation, which desires more interactive educational environments since they have been immersed in technology for the majority of their lives. As such, leveraging this technology can help close the current knowledge gap and increase the nations resilience to nuclear terrorism.http://archive.org/details/gettingseriousab109456803Branch Chief for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and High-explosiveApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Army Officer Corps Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Foundation Gaps Place Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Operations at Risk – Part 1

This is the first of three articles from the authors describing the risk to Joint Operations incurred by an Army that is vulnerable to the STEM challenges faced in a great power competition involving CWMD operations. In this article, we describe the problem. In articles two and three of the series, we will elaborate on the problem utilizing the Joint Publication 3-0 as our guide and recommend solutions to address this gap

A Simulation-Based Analysis of Chemical and Radiological Hazard Zones Adapted to Physical Boundaries

In the United States, industrial and terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) materials pose a risk to public safety. During the initial phase of typical CBRN incidents, emergency responders establish hazard zones based on standard distances from published guidelines and recommendations. This research investigates how standard hazard zones change in a real world environment that accounts for physical boundaries. Using a python simulation in ArcGIS®, new hazard zones were created by expanding standard hazard zones to follow nearby roads, railroads, and rivers. The new and standard zones were compared by calculating the population and area affected by each zone. Additionally, responder efficiency was compared across different combinations of physical boundaries. The simulation generated 990 random points across three cities and three environments (urban, suburban, rural) and was replicated for six hazards. The results revealed significantly larger populations and areas affected by new zones compared to standard zones and significant effects from the environment and city where the incident occurred. Depending on hazard, the median growth ranged from approximately 340 to 8,000 people and 0.6 to 8.8 square miles. The particular combination of physical boundaries used in creating hazard zones was not found to influence responder efficiency

Transforming Protective Action Strategies for Radiological Emergencies—Exacting the Science of Sheltering-in-Place

Radiological emergency plans ensure that protective actions can and will be taken in the event of an accident. Principle protective actions for the early phase of an emergency are evacuation and sheltering-in-place. While evacuations are generally safe, there are deterministic, long-term health consequences from prolonged displacement that outweigh the stochastic radiological health risk. Implementation strategies require balancing the risk to ensure protective actions do more good than harm. In many cases, sheltering-in-place provides a viable alternative to evacuation, yet guidance and tools are lacking to aid decision-makers on the best choice of action during an emergency. Therefore, a method is proposed to exact the science of sheltering-in-place. A model to predict the radiological protection afforded by a typical residential shelter was developed and incorporated into a tool to examine the sensitivity of parameters important to shelter effectiveness. The resultant analysis tool—named PARatus for the Latin word for “prepared”— provides valuable insights into the parameters important to effective sheltering. Transformation is possible, but science and innovation are not enough. A cultural change is needed within the radiation protection community to embrace the future. Then, the process of deliberation can be used to better risk-inform protective action strategies for radiological emergencies

Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Volume 14 / 2018

Homeland Security Affairs is the peer-reviewed online journal of the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS), providing a forum to propose and debate strategies, policies, and organizational arrangements to strengthen U.S. homeland security. The instructors, participants, alumni, and partners of CHDS represent the leading subject matter experts and practitioners in the field of homeland security. Homeland Security Affairs captures the best of their collective work, as well as that of scholars and practitioners throughout the nation, through peer-reviewed articles on new strategies, policies, concepts and data relating to every aspect of Homeland Security. These articles constitute not only the “smart practices” but also the evolution of Homeland Security as an emerging academic and professional discipline. Sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Preparedness Directorate, FEMA, CHDS is part of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). CHDS provides graduate and executive education programs to the nation’s homeland security leaders, including governors, mayors, senior local, state, federal and private sector officials and select military officers. CHDS also operates the Homeland Security Digital Library, which is the authoritative tool for research in the field of homeland security policy and strategy.Sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Preparedness Directorate, FEMA, CHDS is part of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)