Sovereign Debt, Volatility and Insurance

External debt increases the vulnerability of indebted emerging market economies to macroeconomic volatility and financial crises. Capital account reversals often lead to sovereign debt repayment crises that are only resolved after prolonged and difficult debt restructuring. Foreign indebtedness exacerbates domestic financial distress in crisis, increasing both the incidence and severity of emerging market crises. These outcomes contrast with the presumption that access to international capital markets should help countries to smooth domestic consumption and investment against macroeconomic shocks. This paper uses models of sovereign to reconsider the role of sovereign debt renegotiation for international risk sharing and presents an approach for analyzing contractual innovations for implementing contingent debt repayments. The financial innovations that might allow risk-sharing rather than risk-inducing capital flows go beyond contractual changes that ease debt renegotiation by separating contingent payments from bonds.

Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking

Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. Supervisory authorities monitor banks constantly. Thus, they usually obtain early warning signals that precede ultimate failure and, in fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But to our knowledge virtually all studies that predict bank failures neglect the ordinal nature of bank distress. Exploiting the distress database of the Deutsche Bundesbank we distinguish four different distress events that banks experience. Only the worst entails a bank to exit the market. Weaker orders of distress are, first, compulsory notifications of the authorities about potential problems, second, corrective actions such as warnings and hearings and, third, actions by banking pillar's insurance schemes. Since the four categories of hazard functions are not proportional, we specify a generalized ordered logit model to estimate the respective probabilities of distress simultaneously. Our model estimates each set of probabilities with high accuracy and confirms, first, the necessity to account for different kinds of distress events and, second, the violation of the proportional odds assumption implicit in most limited dependent analyses of bank failure. --Bank,failure,distress,generalized ordered logit

The impact of post-merger integration on the customer-supplier relationship

While the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on internal stakeholders has generated considerable empirical study, comparatively little academic attention has been paid as to how external stakeholders such as customers are affected by, and respond to, M&A activity. This study adopts case-study methodology to illuminate how the customer–supplier relationship is affected by post-merger integration processes in the business-to-business context, with the aim of increasing our understanding of why customers respond to M&A in the ways that they do. The findings highlight the importance of a set of critical customer relationship variables through which post-M&A integration actions can influence customers' perceptions of the merged organisation and, ultimately, their purchase decisions. We also identify a set of specific individual integration actions that appear to trigger changes in the critical customer relationship variables. Together, the findings contribute to our understanding of the precise mechanisms through which M&A can affect customers' purchase decisions and the combining firms' market-related performance. More broadly, consistent with the stakeholder perspective, they reinforce the need to take account of external as well as internal stakeholders when considering the drivers of M&A outcome. Implications are discussed for future research as well as for B2B service industry executives involved in M&A

Credit risk rating at large U.S. banks

Large banks use internally developed credit rating systems to differentiate the riskiness of their commercial loans. Internal ratings are an essential ingredient of effective credit risk management for such banks, whose commercial borrowers may number in the tens of thousands. This article describes these rating systems, how their design varies across institutions, and how they are used in risk management. The article also outlines conceptual and practical difficulties currently faced by banks in achieving accurate and consistent ratings and describes ways in which some institutions have attempted to deal with these difficulties. This article is based on a detailed review of policy documents and internal management reports from the fifty largest U.S. bank holding companies and interviews by the authors at a selection of these institutions.Credit ratings ; Risk

Just-in-case inventories - a cross-country analysis

The authors find that raw materials inventories in the manufacturing sector in the 1970s and 1980s were two to three times higher in developing countries than in the United States, despite the fact that in most developing countries real interest rates were at least twice as high. Those significantly high levels of inventories are a burden and an obstacle to country competitiveness and need to be addressed. Poor infrastructure and ineffective regulation, as well as deficiencies in market development, rather than the traditional factors used in inventory models (such as interest rates and uncertainty), are the main determinants and explain these differences. Cross-country estimations show that a one standard deviation worsening of infrastructure increases raw materials inventories by 11 percent to 37 percent, and a one standard deviation worsening of markets increases raw materials inventories by 18 percent to 37 percent. These findings are robust across a number of different proxies and specifications, including an industry-level specification that controls for fixed country effects.Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

An Analysis of Traditional Issue Specific and Macroeconomic Variables on US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities

This paper examines the effects of traditional issue-specific commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) variables on US CMBS spreads. In addition, a decomposition of the Conference Board?s US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index will be examined for each of the ten component?s explanatory power for US CMBS spreads. A qualitative examination of the history and setting of the US subprime crisis, features of US CMBS, and an outline of The Conference Board?s US LEI components are provided. This is followed by an explanation of assumptions and the methodology used for the statistical analysis of the fourteen variables on CMBS spreads. In addition, the NA REIT Composite Index Dividend Yield is hypothesized to contribute to the CMBS spreads. A conclusion will contain results and proposals for an improved model, in contrast to Jadeja and Dorokov (Summer 2008). This paper closes with a discussion of possible sources of errors and guidance for future studies

Distress Dependence and Financial Stability

This paper defines a set of systemic financial stability indicators which measure distress dependence among the financial institutions in a system, thereby allowing to analyze stability from three complementary perspectives: common distress in the system, distress between specific banks, and cascade effects associated with a specific bank. Our approach defines the banking system as a portfolio of banks and infers the system’s multivariate density (BSMD) from which the proposed measures are estimated. The BSMD embeds the banks’ default inter-dependence structure that captures linear and non-linear distress dependencies among the banks in the system, and its changes at different times of the economic cycle. The BSMD is recovered using the CIMDO-approach, a new approach that, in the presence of restricted data, improves density specification without explicitly imposing parametric forms that, under restricted data sets, are difficult to model. Thus, the proposed measures can be constructed from a very limited set of publicly available data and can be provided for a wide range of both developing and developed countries.

Terrorisk: The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads of Targeted Countries

This study estimates the effects of terrorism incidents on a nation’s borrowing costs. An event study approach is used to evaluate changes in sovereign-bond yield spreads after terrorist attacks occur. Prior research is not in consensus on whether the effect of terrorism on bond markets is significant, and no study shows why certain bond indices may rise while others may fall after a terrorist attack. This study does not find statistical significance, which suggests that the effect of an attack may depend on the targeted country. For terrorist researchers, this study is one step toward answering whether terrorists can manipulate financial markets to their advantage

Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan

We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to infer a term structure of banking crisis risk from market data on bank stocks in daily frequency. Considering debt service payments with different maturities this term structure assigns a separate estimator for short- and long-term default risk to each maturity. Applying the Duan (1994) maximum likelihood approach, we find for Kazakhstan that the overall crisis probability was mainly driven by short-term risk, which increased from 25% in March 2007 to 80% in December 2008. Concurrently, the long-term default risk increased from 20% to only 25% during the same period. --Banking crisis,bank default,option pricing theory,compound option,liability structure