35,022 research outputs found
PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms
Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt
to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through
these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a
challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and
then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the
observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we
propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse
observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how
social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We
apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity
network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from
this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and
to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the
likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily
routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily
routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the
non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks
ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the
amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a
random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious
population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess
model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative
approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing
symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health
researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases
The power of indirect social ties
While direct social ties have been intensely studied in the context of
computer-mediated social networks, indirect ties (e.g., friends of friends)
have seen little attention. Yet in real life, we often rely on friends of our
friends for recommendations (of good doctors, good schools, or good
babysitters), for introduction to a new job opportunity, and for many other
occasional needs. In this work we attempt to 1) quantify the strength of
indirect social ties, 2) validate it, and 3) empirically demonstrate its
usefulness for distributed applications on two examples. We quantify social
strength of indirect ties using a(ny) measure of the strength of the direct
ties that connect two people and the intuition provided by the sociology
literature. We validate the proposed metric experimentally by comparing
correlations with other direct social tie evaluators. We show via data-driven
experiments that the proposed metric for social strength can be used
successfully for social applications. Specifically, we show that it alleviates
known problems in friend-to-friend storage systems by addressing two previously
documented shortcomings: reduced set of storage candidates and data
availability correlations. We also show that it can be used for predicting the
effects of a social diffusion with an accuracy of up to 93.5%.Comment: Technical Repor
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