Mineral Asset Valuation Under Economic Uncertainty: A Complex System for Operational Flexibility

The global mineral industry faces constant challenges that are incited and intensified by market uncertainty. Demand constrictions, resource scarcity, and market volatility all generate market risk that is compounded by the high capital and long payback periods inherent to mining projects. Quantitative risk assessments provide a methodology to leverage uncertain economic scenarios and accurately assess profitability; however, current mine valuation techniques and engineering economic approaches tend to scrutinize the uncertainty of technical factors, such as ore grade and metallurgical recovery, to a much greater degree than market factors, like price-demand restrictions. Nevertheless, the optimal operating conditions for mining, mineral processing and refining must reflect the true dynamics of uncertain commodity prices, and typical operational responses, such as modifications to mine production and material stockpiling.;This thesis presents a new mineral asset valuation methodology based on economic uncertainty in the commodity market and operational flexibility for mining operations. This novel valuation approach resulted in the generation of a complex system that consists of three primary components. First, a price forecasting component was used to generate future commodity price scenarios with two different stochastic differential equation models (Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean-Reverting-drift). Second, a dynamic methodology of discounted cash flow (DCF) was developed, allowing operational flexibility for mining, processing, stockpiling, and selling material. Third, two distinct optimization techniques (Interior-point method and genetic algorithms) were applied for identification of optimal operating parameters in a mining operation, with a particular focus on using buffer stockpiles to ameliorate the impacts of volatile price fluctuations. The dynamic model was applied in a case study assessing the valuation of a greenfield Ni-Co-Sc mine project. The hypothetical deposit was subjected to different levels of commodity price trends, price volatility, discount rates and maximum stockpiling capacity. Overall, the dynamic valuation model obtained NPV results ranging from 2% to 11% higher than standard static DCF techniques. Operational flexibility and ore inventory management proved to be crucial for profit increase on the project

Kaedah pembelajaran lukisan kejuruteraan berasaskan simulasi

Kajian yang dijalankan ini adalah untuk melihat kebolehgunaan sebuah perisian pendidikan yang menerapkan Kaedah Pembelajaran Lukisan Kejuruteraan Berasaskan Simulasi bagi menyelesaikan masalah kurang faham , kurang minat dan kebergantungan yang terlalu memusat kepada guru di kalangan pelajar Tingkatan 4, Sekolah Menengah Ungku Aziz, Sabak Bernam, Selangor . Justeru, penyampaian isi kandungan yang bersesuaian dengan tahap pemikiran atau kognitif pelajar, aspek minat dan motivasi serta pembelajaran ala akses kendiri dirasakan sebagai faktor utama yang ingin dikenal pasti dalam perisian yang dibangunkan bagi menyelesaikan masalah tersebut. Macromedia Authorware versi 6.5 dipilih sebagai bahasa pengarangan bagi membangunkan perisian pendidikan ini. Seramai 30 responden dipilih untuk mendapatkan maklum balas terhadap kajian ini. Data yang didapati telah dianalisis menggunakan perisian Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) versi 11.0 menggunakan kaedah deskriptif min. Hasil kajian mendapati bahawa maklum balas adalah positif terhadap faktor-faktor yang telah dikaji

Digital system of quarry management as a SAAS solution: mineral deposit module

Purpose. Improving the efficiency of functioning the mining enterprises and aggregation of earlier obtained results into a unified digital system of designing and operative management by quarry operation. Methods. Both the traditional (analysis of scientific and patent literature, analytical methods of deposit parameters research, analysis of experience and exploitation of quarries, conducting the passive experiment and processing the statistical data) and new forms of scientific research - deposit modeling on the basis of classical and neural network methods of approximation – are used in the work. For the purpose of the software product realization on the basis of cloud technologies, there were used: for back-end implementation – server-based scripting language php; for the front-end – multi-paradigm programming language javascript, javascript framework jQuery and asynchronous data exchange technology Ajax. Findings. The target audience of the system has been identified, SWOT-analysis has been carried out, conceptual directions of 3D-quarry system development have been defined. The strategies of development and promotion of the software product, as well as the strategies of safety and reliability of the application both for the client and the owner of the system have been formulated. The modular structure of the application has been developed, and the system functions have been divided to implement both back-end and front-end applications. The Mineral Deposit Module has been developed: the geological structure of the deposit has been simulated and its block model has been constructed. It has been proved that the use of neural network algorithms does not give an essential increase in the accuracy of the block model for the deposits of 1 and 2 groups in terms of the geological structure complexity. The possibility and prospects of constructing the systems for subsoil users on the basis of cloud technologies and the concept of SaaS have been substantiated. Originality. For the first time, the modern software products for solving the problems of designing and operational management of mining operations have been successfully developed on the basis of the SaaS concept. Practical implications. The results are applicable for enterprises-subsoil users, working with deposits of 1 and 2 groups in terms of the geological structure complexity: design organizations, as well as mining and processing plants.Мета. Підвищення ефективності функціонування гірничорудних підприємств та агрегація раніше отриманих результатів в єдину цифрову систему проектування і оперативного управління роботою кар’єрів. Методика. У роботі використані як традиційні (аналіз науково-патентної літератури, аналітичні методи дослідження параметрів родовища, аналіз досвіду й експлуатації кар’єрів, проведення пасивного експерименту та статистичної обробки даних), так і нові форми наукового дослідження – моделювання родовища на основі класичних і нейромережевих методів апроксимації. Для реалізації програмного продукту на основі хмарних технологій використані: для реалізації back-end – серверна скриптова мова програмування php; для front-end – мультипарадігменна мова програмування javascript, javascript framework jQuery і технологія асинхронного обміну даними Ajax. Результати. Виявлено цільову аудиторію системи, проведено SWOT-аналіз, визначено концептуальні напрями розвитку системи 3D-кар’єр, розроблені стратегії розвитку та просування програмного продукту, розроблені стратегії безпеки й надійності додатки як для клієнта, так і власника системи. Розроблено модульну структуру програми, вироблено розподіл функцій системи для реалізації як back-end і front-end додатки. Розроблено модуль “Родовище”: проведено моделювання геологічної структури родовища та побудована його блокова модель. Доведено, що використання нейромережевих алгоритмів не дає принципового підвищення точності блокової моделі для родовищ 1 і 2 груп за складністю геологічної будови. Виявлено недоліки нейромережевих алгоритмів, такі як високі витрати обчислювальних ресурсів сервера і проблеми візуалізації великих масивів геоданих при використанні web-рішень, знайдені шляхи їх вирішення. Доведено можливість і перспективність побудови систем для надрокористувачів на основі хмарних технологій і концепції SaaS. Наукова новизна. Вперше на основі концепції ASP успішно побудовані сучасні програмні продукти для вирішення завдань проектування та оперативного керування гірничими роботами. Практична значимість. Результати корисні для підприємств-надрокористувачів, які працюють з родовищами 1 і 2 груп за складністю геологічної будови – проектних організацій і ГЗК.Цель. Повышение эффективности функционирования горнорудных предприятий и агрегация ранее полученных результатов в единую цифровую систему проектирования и оперативного управления работой карьеров. Методика. В работе использованы как традиционные (анализ научно-патентной литературы, аналитические методы исследования параметров месторождения, анализ опыта и эксплуатации карьеров, проведение пассивного эксперимента и статистической обработкой данных), так и новые формы научного исследования – моделирование месторождения на основе классических и нейросетевых методов аппроксимации. Для реализации программного продукта на основе облачных технологий использованы: для реализации back-end – серверный скриптовый язык программирования php; для front-end – мультипарадигменный язык программирования javascript, javascript framework jQuery и технология асинхронного обмена данными Ajax. Результаты. Выявлена целевая аудитория системы, проведен SWOT-анализ, определены концептуальные направления развития системы 3D-карьер, разработаны стратегии развития и продвижения программного продукта, разработаны стратегии безопасности и надежности приложения как для клиента, так и владельца системы. Разработана модульная структура приложения, произведено деление функций системы для реализации как back-end и front-end приложения. Разработан модуль “Месторождение”: проведено моделирование геологической структуры месторождения и построена его блочная модель. Доказано, что использование нейросетевых алгоритмов не дает принципиального повышения точности блочной модели для месторождений 1 и 2 групп по сложности геологического строения. Выявлены недостатки нейросетевых алгоритмов, такие как высокие затраты вычислительных ресурсов сервера и проблемы визуализации больших массивов геоданных при использовании web-решений, найдены пути их решения. Доказана возможность и перспективность построения систем для недропользователей на основе облачных технологий и концепции SaaS. Научная новизна. Впервые на основе концепции ASP успешно построены современные программные продукты для решения задач проектирования и оперативного управления горными работами. Практическая значимость. Результаты применимы для предприятий-недропользователей, работающих с месторождениями 1 и 2 групп по сложности геологического строения – проектных организаций и ГОКов.We express our profound gratitude to A.B. Naizabekov for his assistance in scientific research, to A.F. Tsekhovoy, P.A. Tsekhovoy, D.Sh. Akhmedov, V. V. Yankovenko and D.V. Nikitas for scientific advice in implementation of the program code. The research was carried out within the framework of the initiative research theme “Improving the Efficiency of Mining Enterprises” on the basis of the RSE at the Rudny Industrial Institute of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Bulk Raw Materials Handling and Blending Techniques of Sinter Plant: A Case Study of Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited, Kogi State, Nigeria

Bulk raw materials handling plant and sintering plant preparatory plants are established to receive, blend, stockpile, prepare and supply specified grades of raw materials for smooth operations of iron making plant (Blast furnace), steel making plant (Basic oxygen converter) and lime Plant(calcinations plant). The study discusses bulk raw materials handling and some general problem of scientific analysis and documentation of basic equipment details, stockyard facilities, bulk materials transport systems and sinter processes, for the general knowledge and operational procedures of these plant for effective and efficient operational processes for optical results. Iron ore concentrate supplied from the mines to some extent fluctuate in their chemical composition as a result of the nature of the deposit with various factors controlling beneficiation processes and addition of metal-bearing materials collected as a waste product from the Rolling Mills, Blast Furnace and Sinter Plant which must be recycled through Iron ore concentrate stockyard. The part of the sinter mixture is melted at a temperature about 1300-1480 ° C and a sequence of reactions shaping the sinter cake to be loaded into the blast furnace to produce iron from a pig

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationThis research was undertaken to investigate the impacts of finer rock fragmentation (arising from higher energy blasting) on the unit costs of a hard-rock surface mine. The investigation was carried out at a copper operation in southern Utah, which exploits its deposits by conventional methods, including drilling, blasting, loading, and truck haulage. The run of mine is processed in a three-stage crushing circuit and a two-stage grinding circuit, which feed a flotation plant that produces a copper concentrate. The research was carried out using modeling and simulation techniques. Fifty-five blast designs in total were developed for ore and waste units, with energy inputs ranging from 100 kcal/st to 400 kcal/st. For each design, fragmentation was predicted using the Kuz-Ram method. Crushing of the predicted ore fragment size distributions was simulated using MODSIMTM. Data from pit face imaging and timed motion studies were collected and analyzed for the influence of fragmentation on shovel and truck productivity. Analyses indicated that fragment size distribution alone does not significantly impact this productivity. From simulation of the crushing circuit, it was found that the impact of differences in the blast-generated fragment distribution on the crusher energy is limited to the primary crusher, where a vast range of feed size distributions are introduced. No such relationships were evident at the secondary and tertiary crushers. Energy savings from increasing blasting intensity proved negligible and would not justify the costs of higher energy blasting. There was no evidence from this work that any beneficial influences of blast-generated fragment size distribution reach the grinding mill. Costs were estimated for drilling, blasting, and crushing, which were the principal unit operations inferred to be affected in some meaningful way by the varying intensities of blast energy input. The research shows that, principally as a result of jaw crusher gape restrictions and the significant unit costs of secondary reduction for both ore and waste, the net of all breakage (primary blast, secondary reduction, and crushing) does reduce to a transient minimum before they begin to ramp up again, thus fitting a classical mine-to-mill curve

Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2009.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-80).A key element for realizing long term sustainable use of any metal will be a robust secondary recovery industry. Secondary recovery forestalls depletion of non-renewable resources and avoids the deleterious effects of extraction and winning (albeit by substituting some effects of its own). For most metals, the latter provides strong motivation for recycling; for light metals, like aluminum, the motivation is compelling. Along aluminum's life-cycle there are a variety of leverage points for increasing the usage of secondary or recycled materials. This thesis aims to improve materials decision making in two of these key areas: 1) blending decisions in manufacturing, and 2) alloy design decisions in product development. The usage of recycled aluminum in alloy blends is greatly hindered by variation in the raw material composition. Currently, to accommodate compositional variation, firms commonly set production targets well inside the window of compositional specification required for performance reasons. Window narrowing, while effective, does not make use of statistical sampling data, leading to sub-optimal usage of recycled materials. This work explores the use of stochastic programming techniques which allow explicit consideration of statistical information on composition. The computational complexity of several methods is quantified in order to select a single method for comparison to deterministic models, in this case, a chance-constrained model was optimal. The framework and a case study of cast and wrought production with available scrap materials are presented.(cont.) Results show that it is possible to increase the use of recycled material without compromising the likelihood of batch errors, when using this method compared to conventional window narrowing. The chance-constrained framework was then extended to improving the alloy design process. Currently, few systematic methods exist to measure and direct the metallurgical alloy design process to create alloys that are most able to be produced from scrap. This is due, in part, to the difficulty in evaluating such a context-dependent property as recyclability of an alloy, which will depend on the types of scraps available to producers, the compositional characteristics of those scraps, their yield, and the alloy itself. Results show that this method is effective in, a) characterizing the challenge of developing recycling-friendly alloys due to the contextual sensitivity of that property; b) demonstrating how such models can be used to evaluate the potential scrap usage of alloys; and (c) exploring the value of sensitivity analysis information to proactively identify effective alloy modifications that can drive increased potential scrap use.by Gabrielle G. Gaustad.S.M

Advances in Computational Intelligence Applications in the Mining Industry

This book captures advancements in the applications of computational intelligence (artificial intelligence, machine learning, etc.) to problems in the mineral and mining industries. The papers present the state of the art in four broad categories: mine operations, mine planning, mine safety, and advances in the sciences, primarily in image processing applications. Authors in the book include both researchers and industry practitioners