Promoting Public Health and Safety: A Predictive Modeling Software Analysis on Perceived Road Fatality Contributory Factors

Extensive literature search was conducted to computationally analyze the relationship between key perceived road fatality factors and public health impacts, in terms of mortality and morbidity. Heterogeneous sources of data on road fatality 1970-2005 and that based on interview questionnaire on European road drivers’ perception were sourced. Computational analysis was performed on these data using the Multilayer Perceptron model within the dtreg predictive modeling software. Driver factors had the highest relative significance. Drivers played significant role as causative agents of road accidents. A good degree of correlation was also observed when compared with results obtained by previous researchers. Sweden, UK, Finland, Denmark, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Austria, where road safety targets were set and EU targets adopted, experienced a faster and sharper reduction of road fatalities. However, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Portugal experienced slow, but little reduction in cases of road fatalities. Spain experienced an increase in road fatalities possibly due to road fatalities enhancing factors. Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Hungry, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland experienced a fluctuating but decreasing trend. Enforcement of road safety principles and regulations are needed to decrease the incidences of fatal accidents. Adoption of the EU target of -50% reductions of fatalities in all countries will help promote public health and safety

Pollution in the open oceans: 2009-2013

This review of pollution in the open oceans updates a report on this topic prepared by GESAMP five years previously (Reports and Studies No. 79, GESAMP, 2009). The latter report, the first from GESAMP focusing specifically on the oceans beyond the 200 m depth contour, was prepared for purposes of the Assessment of Assessments, the preparatory phase of a regular process for assessing the state of the marine environment, led jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO-IOC)

Radiocarbon releases from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

Radiocarbon activities were measured in annual tree rings for the years 2009 to 2015 from Japanese cedar trees (Cryptomeria japonica) collected at six sites ranging from 2.5–38 km northwest and north of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. The 14C specific activity varied from 280.4 Bq kg−1 C in 2010 to 226.0 Bq kg−1 C in 2015. The elevated 14C activities in the 2009 and 2010 rings confirmed 14C discharges during routine reactor operations, whereas those activities that were indistinguishable from background in 2012–2015 coincided with the permanent shutdown of the reactors after the accident in 2011. High-resolution 14C analysis of the 2011 ring indicated 14C releases during the Fukushima accident. The resulted 14C activity decreased with increasing distance from the plant. The maximum 14C activity released during the period of the accident was measured 42.4 Bq kg−1 C above the natural ambient 14C background. Our findings indicate that, unlike other Fukushima-derived radionuclides, the 14C released during the accident is indistinguishable from ambient background beyond the local environment (~30 km from the plant). Furthermore, the resulting dose to the local population from the excess 14C activities is negligible compared to the dose from natural/nuclear weapons sources

Do more trucks lead to more motor vehicle fatalities in European roads? Evaluating the impact of specific safety strategies.

Truck operations have recently become an important focus of academic research not only because road freight transport is a key part of logistics, but because trucks are usually associated with negative externalities including pollution, congestion and traffic accidents. While the negative environmental impacts of truck activities have been extensively analyzed, comparatively little attention has been paid to the role of trucks in road accidents. A review of the literature identifies various truck-traffic safety related issues: frequency of accidents and their determinants; risk factors associated with truck driver behavior (including cell phone use, fatigue, alcohol and drugs consumption); truck characteristics and facilities (roadway types, specific lanes and electronic stability programs) to improve performance of vehiclemaneuvering; and the safety characteristics of heavy and large trucks. However, to date, there seems to have been developed few studies evaluating the complex coexistence of trucks and cars on roads and that may support the implementation of differential road safety strategies applied to them. This paper focuses on the impact on the traffic fatalities rate of the interaction between trucks and cars on roads. We also assess the efficiency of two stricter road safety regulations for trucks, as yet not harmonized in the European Union; namely, speed limits and maximum blood alcohol concentration rates. For this, econometric models have been developed from a panel data set for European Union during the years 1999–2010. Our findings show that rising motorization rates for trucks lead to higher traffic fatalities, while rising motorization rates for cars do not. These effects remain constant across Europe, even in the most highly developed countries boasting the best highway networks. Furthermore, we also find that lower maximum speed limits for trucks are effective and maximum blood alcohol concentration rates for professional drivers are only effective when they are strictly set to zero. Therefore, our results point to that the differential treatment of trucks is not only adequate for mitigating an important source of congestion and pollution, but that the implementation of stricter road safety measures in European countries for the case of trucks also contributes significantly to reducing fatalities. In summary, and as a counterpoint to the negative impact of trucks on road traffic accidents, we conclude the effectiveness of efforts made in road safety policy (based on specific traffic regulations by vehicle type imposed by member States) to counteract the safety externalities of freight transportation in the European Union. In certain sense, our study might provide indirect support to public policies implemented at the macro European level to promote multimodal transport corridors. In this respect, there is an increasing focus at the European level on how freight transport can be moved from trucks on roads to more environmentally-sustainable modes, such as rail and ship.Dirección General de Tráfico SPIP2014127

Methodology for development of drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) Curves

Drought monitoring and early warning are essential elements impacting drought sensitive sectors such as primary production, industrial and consumptive water users. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought is crucial for the development of mitigating strategies. The overall aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess drought frequency and severity and to advance the understanding of monitoring and predicting droughts in the future. Seventy (70) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected for analysis. To achieve the above objective, the analysis was initially carried out to select the most applicable meteorological drought index for Victoria. This is important because to date, no drought indices are applied across Australia by any Commonwealth agency quantifying drought impacts. An evaluation of existing meteorological drought indices namely, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Deciles was first conducted to assess their suitability for the determination of drought conditions. The use of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was shown to be satisfactory for assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts in Australia. When applied to data, SPI was also successful in detecting the onset and the end of historical droughts. Temporal changes in historic rainfall variability and the trend of SPI were investigated using non-parametric trend techniques to detect wet and dry periods across Victoria, Australia. The first part of the analysis was carried out to determine annual rainfall trends using Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope tests at five selected meteorological stations with long historical records (more than 100 years), as well as a short sub-set period (1949-2011) of the same data set. It was found that different trend results were obtained for the sub-set. For SPI trend analysis, it was observed that, although different results were obtained showing significant trends, SPI gave a trend direction similar to annual precipitation (downward and upward trends). In addition, temporal trends in the rate of occurrence of drought events (i.e. inter-arrival times) were examined. The fact that most of the stations showed negative slopes indicated that the intervals between events were becoming shorter and the frequency of events was temporally increasing. Based on the results obtained from the preliminary analysis, the trend analyses were then carried out for the remaining 65 stations. The main conclusions from these analyses are summarized as follows; 1) the trend analysis was observed to be highly dependent on the start and end dates of analysis. It is recommended that in the selection of time period for the drought, trend analysis should consider the length xvi of available data sets. Longer data series would give more meaningful results, thus improving the understanding of droughts impacted by climate change. 2) From the SPI and inter-arrival drought trends, it was observed that some of the study areas in Victoria will face more frequent dry period leading to increased drought occurrence. Information similar to this would be very important to develop suitable strategies to mitigate the impacts of future droughts. The main objective of this study was the development of a methodology to assess drought risk for each region based on a frequency analysis of the drought severity series using the SPI index calculated over a 12-month duration. A novel concept centric on drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves was successfully derived for all the 70 stations using an innovative threshold approach. The methodology derived using extreme value analysis will assist in the characterization of droughts and provide useful information to policy makers and agencies developing drought response plans. Using regionalisation techniques such as Cluster analysis and modified Andrews curve, the study area was separated into homogenous groups based on rainfall characteristics. In the current Victorian application the study area was separated into six homogeneous clusters with unique signatures. A set of mean SDF curves was developed for each cluster to identify the frequency and severity of the risk of drought events for various return periods in each cluster. The advantage of developing a mean SDF curve (as a signature) for each cluster is that it assists the understanding of drought conditions for an ungauged or unknown station, the characteristics of which fit existing cluster groups. Non-homogeneous Markov Chain modelling was used to estimate the probability of different drought severity classes and drought severity class predictions 1, 2 and 3 months ahead. The non-homogeneous formulation, which considers the seasonality of precipitation, is useful for understanding the evolution of drought events and for short-term planning. Overall, this model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead well. However, predictions 2 and 3 months ahead should be used with caution. Many parts of Australia including Victoria have experienced their worst droughts on record over the last decade. With the threat of climate change potentially further exacerbating droughts in the years ahead, a clear understanding of the impact of droughts is vital. The information on the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought will be helpful for water resources managers, infrastructure planners and government policy-makers with future infrastructure planning and with the design and building of more resilient communities

Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

This is the post-print version of the article which has been published and is available at the link below.In this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile

Aeronautical Engineering. A continuing bibliography, supplement 115

This bibliography lists 273 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in October 1979