Inference for double Pareto lognormal queues with applications

In this article we describe a method for carrying out Bayesian inference for the double Pareto lognormal (dPlN) distribution which has recently been proposed as a model for heavy-tailed phenomena. We apply our approach to inference for the dPlN/M/1 and M/dPlN/1 queueing systems. These systems cannot be analyzed using standard techniques due to the fact that the dPlN distribution does not posses a Laplace transform in closed form. This difficulty is overcome using some recent approximations for the Laplace transform for the Pareto/M/1 system. Our procedure is illustrated with applications in internet traffic analysis and risk theory

Modeling Teletraffic Arrivals by a Poisson Cluster Process

Modeling Teletraffic Arrivals by a Poisson Cluster Proces

More "normal" than normal: scaling distributions and complex systems

One feature of many naturally occurring or engineered complex systems is tremendous variability in event sizes. To account for it, the behavior of these systems is often described using power law relationships or scaling distributions, which tend to be viewed as "exotic" because of their unusual properties (e.g., infinite moments). An alternate view is based on mathematical, statistical, and data-analytic arguments and suggests that scaling distributions should be viewed as "more normal than normal". In support of this latter view that has been advocated by Mandelbrot for the last 40 years, we review in this paper some relevant results from probability theory and illustrate a powerful statistical approach for deciding whether the variability associated with observed event sizes is consistent with an underlying Gaussian-type (finite variance) or scaling-type (infinite variance) distribution. We contrast this approach with traditional model fitting techniques and discuss its implications for future modeling of complex systems

On the accuracy of phase-type approximations of heavy-tailed risk models

Numerical evaluation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model is an important problem. If claim sizes are heavy-tailed, then such evaluations are challenging. To overcome this, an attractive way is to approximate the claim sizes with a phase-type distribution. What is not clear though is how many phases are enough in order to achieve a specific accuracy in the approximation of the ruin probability. The goals of this paper are to investigate the number of phases required so that we can achieve a pre-specified accuracy for the ruin probability and to provide error bounds. Also, in the special case of a completely monotone claim size distribution we develop an algorithm to estimate the ruin probability by approximating the excess claim size distribution with a hyperexponential one. Finally, we compare our approximation with the heavy traffic and heavy tail approximations.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, 8 tables, 38 reference

Wavelet and Multiscale Analysis of Network Traffic

The complexity and richness of telecommunications traffic is such that one may despair to find any regularity or explanatory principles. Nonetheless, the discovery of scaling behaviour in tele-traffic has provided hope that parsimonious models can be found. The statistics of scaling behavior present many challenges, especially in non-stationary environments. In this paper we describe the state of the art in this area, focusing on the capabilities of the wavelet transform as a key tool for unravelling the mysteries of traffic statistics and dynamics

The extremogram: A correlogram for extreme events

We consider a strictly stationary sequence of random vectors whose finite-dimensional distributions are jointly regularly varying with some positive index. This class of processes includes, among others, ARMA processes with regularly varying noise, GARCH processes with normally or Student-distributed noise and stochastic volatility models with regularly varying multiplicative noise. We define an analog of the autocorrelation function, the extremogram, which depends only on the extreme values in the sequence. We also propose a natural estimator for the extremogram and study its asymptotic properties under $\alpha$-mixing. We show asymptotic normality, calculate the extremogram for various examples and consider spectral analysis related to the extremogram.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/09-BEJ213 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Weak Convergence of the function-indexed integrated periodogram for infinite variance processes

In this paper, we study the weak convergence of the integrated periodogram indexed by classes of functions for linear processes with symmetric $\alpha$-stable innovations. Under suitable summability conditions on the series of the Fourier coefficients of the index functions, we show that the weak limits constitute $\alpha$-stable processes which have representations as infinite Fourier series with i.i.d. $\alpha$-stable coefficients. The cases $\alpha\in(0,1)$ and $\alpha\in[1,2)$ are dealt with by rather different methods and under different assumptions on the classes of functions. For example, in contrast to the case $\alpha\in(0,1)$, entropy conditions are needed for $\alpha\in[1,2)$ to ensure the tightness of the sequence of integrated periodograms indexed by functions. The results of this paper are of additional interest since they provide limit results for infinite mean random quadratic forms with particular Toeplitz coefficient matrices.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ253 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Cache Miss Estimation for Non-Stationary Request Processes

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the miss probability of a Least Recently Used (LRU) cache, when it is offered a non-stationary request process given by a Poisson cluster point process. First, we construct a probability space using Palm theory, describing how to consider a tagged document with respect to the rest of the request process. This framework allows us to derive a general integral formula for the expected number of misses of the tagged document. Then, we consider the limit when the cache size and the arrival rate go to infinity proportionally, and use the integral formula to derive an asymptotic expansion of the miss probability in powers of the inverse of the cache size. This enables us to quantify and improve the accuracy of the so-called Che approximation

Bayesian modelling of skewness and kurtosis with two-piece scale and shape distributions

We formalise and generalise the definition of the family of univariate double two--piece distributions, obtained by using a density--based transformation of unimodal symmetric continuous distributions with a shape parameter. The resulting distributions contain five interpretable parameters that control the mode, as well as the scale and shape in each direction. Four-parameter subfamilies of this class of distributions that capture different types of asymmetry are discussed. We propose interpretable scale and location-invariant benchmark priors and derive conditions for the propriety of the corresponding posterior distribution. The prior structures used allow for meaningful comparisons through Bayes factors within flexible families of distributions. These distributions are applied to data from finance, internet traffic and medicine, comparing them with appropriate competitors

Estimating Quantile Families of Loss Distributions for Non-Life Insurance Modelling via L-moments

This paper discusses different classes of loss models in non-life insurance settings. It then overviews the class Tukey transform loss models that have not yet been widely considered in non-life insurance modelling, but offer opportunities to produce flexible skewness and kurtosis features often required in loss modelling. In addition, these loss models admit explicit quantile specifications which make them directly relevant for quantile based risk measure calculations. We detail various parameterizations and sub-families of the Tukey transform based models, such as the g-and-h, g-and-k and g-and-j models, including their properties of relevance to loss modelling. One of the challenges with such models is to perform robust estimation for the loss model parameters that will be amenable to practitioners when fitting such models. In this paper we develop a novel, efficient and robust estimation procedure for estimation of model parameters in this family Tukey transform models, based on L-moments. It is shown to be more robust and efficient than current state of the art methods of estimation for such families of loss models and is simple to implement for practical purposes.Comment: 42 page