Text Mining for Social Harm and Criminal Justice Applications

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)Increasing rates of social harm events and plethora of text data demands the need of employing text mining techniques not only to better understand their causes but also to develop optimal prevention strategies. In this work, we study three social harm issues: crime topic models, transitions into drug addiction and homicide investigation chronologies. Topic modeling for the categorization and analysis of crime report text allows for more nuanced categories of crime compared to official UCR categorizations. This study has important implications in hotspot policing. We investigate the extent to which topic models that improve coherence lead to higher levels of crime concentration. We further explore the transitions into drug addiction using Reddit data. We proposed a prediction model to classify the users’ transition from casual drug discussion forum to recovery drug discussion forum and the likelihood of such transitions. Through this study we offer insights into modern drug culture and provide tools with potential applications in combating opioid crises. Lastly, we present a knowledge graph based framework for homicide investigation chronologies that may aid investigators in analyzing homicide case data and also allow for post hoc analysis of key features that determine whether a homicide is ultimately solved. For this purpose we perform named entity recognition to determine witnesses, detectives and suspects from chronology, use keyword expansion to identify various evidence types and finally link these entities and evidence to construct a homicide investigation knowledge graph. We compare the performance over several choice of methodologies for these sub-tasks and analyze the association between network statistics of knowledge graph and homicide solvability

Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement

Early Social-Emotional Functioning and Public Health: The Relationship Between Kindergarten Social Competence and Future Wellness

A new 20-year study shows a link between children's social skills in kindergarten and their well-being in early adulthood.Researchers from Pennsylvania State and Duke Universities analyzed what happened to nearly 800 kindergarteners from four locations after their teachers measured their social competency skills in 1991. The children were evaluated on a range of social behaviors, such as whether they resolve peer problems, listen to others, share materials, cooperate, and are helpful. Each student then received a composite score representing his or her overall level of positive social skills/behavior, on a scale from ("not at all") to 4 ("very well"). The research team monitored these students and the positive and negative milestones each obtained until they turned 25.Using a variety of data sources, including official records; reports from parents; and self-reporting by the participants, researchers recorded whether the students obtained high school diplomas, college degrees, and full-time jobs. They also kept track of whether students developed a criminal record or substance abuse problems, among other negative outcomes

Concentration of personal and household crimes in England and Wales

Crime is disproportionally concentrated in few areas. Though long-established, there remains uncertainty about the reasons for variation in the concentration of similar crime (repeats) or different crime (multiples). Wholly neglected have been composite crimes when more than one crime types coincide as parts of a single event. The research reported here disentangles area crime concentration into repeats, multiple and composite crimes. The results are based on estimated bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression models with covariance structure which explicitly account for crime rarity and crime concentration. The implications of the results for criminological theorizing and as a possible basis for more equitable police funding are discussed