2,001 research outputs found

    Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Nigeria

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    This study uses an economy-wide, dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the ability of growth in various agricultural subsectors to accelerate overall economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria over the next years (2009-17). In addition, econometric methods are used to assess growth requirements in agricultural public spending and the relationship between public services and farmers’ use of modern technology. The DCGE model results show that if certain agricultural subsectors can reach the growth targets set by the Nigerian government, the country will see 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture and 8.0 percent growth of GDP over the next years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more than halving the 1996 poverty rate of 65.6 percent and thereby accomplishing the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). This report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and prioritizing growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsectoral level: (i) the size of a given subsector in the economy; (ii) the growth-multiplier effects occurring through linkages of the subsector with the rest of the economy; (iii) the subsector-led poverty reduction-growth elasticity; and (iv) the market opportunities and price effects for individual agricultural products. In analyzing the public investments that would be required to support a 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture, this study first estimates the growth elasticity of public investments using historical spending and agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth data. The results show that a 1 percent increase in agricultural spending is associated with a 0.24 percent annual increase in agricultural TFP. With such low elasticity, agricultural investments must grow at 23.8 percent annually to support a 9.5 percent increase in agriculture. However, if the spending efficiency can be improved by 70 percent, the required agricultural investment growth becomes 13.6 percent per year. The study also finds that investments outside agriculture benefit growth in the agricultural sector. Thus, assessments of required growth in agricultural spending should include the indirect effects of nonagricultural investments and emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of agricultural investments. To further show that efficiency in agricultural spending is critically important to agricultural growth, this study utilizes household-level data to empirically show that access to agricultural services has a significantly positive effect on the use of modern agricultural inputs.Agricultural growth, agricultural investments, agricultural services, Development strategies, Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE), low elasticity, market opportunities, Millennium Development Goals (MDG), modern agricultural inputs, nonagricultural investments, Poverty reduction, Public investments, Total factor productivity (TFP),

    Application of Markov Chain Model and ArcGIS in Land Use Projection of Ala River Catchment, Akure, Nigeria

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    Increase land use change is one of the consequences of rapid population growth of cities in developing countries with its negative consequences on the environment. This study generates previous and present land use of Ala watershed and project the future land use using Markov chain model and ArcGIS software (version 10.2.1). Landsat 7, Enhanced Thematic mapper plus (ETM+) image and Landsat 8 operational land imager (OLI) with path 190 and row 2 used to generate land use (LU) and land cover (LC) images for the years 2000, 2010 and 2019. Six LU/LC classes were considered as follows: developed area (DA), open soil (OS), grass surface (GS), light forest (LF), wetland (WL) and hard rock (HR). Markov chain analysis was used in predicting LU/LC types in the watershed for the years 2029 and 2039. The veracity of the model was tested with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE) and Percent Bias methods. The model results show that the study area is growing rapidly particularly in the recent time. This urban expansion results in significant decrease of WL coverage areas and the significant increase of DA. This implies reduction in the available land for dry season farming and incessant flood occurrence. Keywords: Land cover, land use change, Markov chain, ArcGIS, watershed, urbanizatio

    Influence of differentiation strategy on performance of hotels: the moderating role of environmental munificence

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    This study investigates whether environmental munificence directly and indirectly predicts the relationship between differentiation strategy and performance.A total of 83 managers from hotels in Kano state were participated.A questionnaire was administered to collect information on socio demographics and on differentiation strategy, environmental munificence, and performance. Results revealed that differentiation strategy, environmental munificence was positively associated with performance. Environmental munificence fully moderates the relationships of differentiation strategy and performance.This article, apart from its contribution to the business strategy research, has meaningful implications for managers and policy-makers, the future research directions are discussed

    Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual Conference GISRUK 2010

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    This volume holds the papers from the 18th annual GIS Research UK (GISRUK). This year the conference, hosted at University College London (UCL), from Wednesday 14 to Friday 16 April 2010. The conference covered the areas of core geographic information science research as well as applications domains such as crime and health and technological developments in LBS and the geoweb. UCL’s research mission as a global university is based around a series of Grand Challenges that affect us all, and these were accommodated in GISRUK 2010. The overarching theme this year was “Global Challenges”, with specific focus on the following themes: * Crime and Place * Environmental Change * Intelligent Transport * Public Health and Epidemiology * Simulation and Modelling * London as a global city * The geoweb and neo-geography * Open GIS and Volunteered Geographic Information * Human-Computer Interaction and GIS Traditionally, GISRUK has provided a platform for early career researchers as well as those with a significant track record of achievement in the area. As such, the conference provides a welcome blend of innovative thinking and mature reflection. GISRUK is the premier academic GIS conference in the UK and we are keen to maintain its outstanding record of achievement in developing GIS in the UK and beyond

    An Integrated Remote Sensing and Urban Growth Model Approach to Curb Slum Formation in Lagos Megacity

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    Rapid urbanization with limited development has led to slum proliferation in many sub-Saharan African cities. Slums are recognized as a menace to planned cities, as they do not conform to planning standards, thus the need to curb their growth. However, this proves to be a challenge for many of these cities due to unavailability of data on the existing situation. It is against this background that this study aims to contribute ground information and a spatial planning tool to support urban planning to better manage slum formation in Lagos, Nigeria. Slum growth can be described as spatial or as population growth; hence this study first analyzed and quantified the spatial growth of slums in Lagos using remote sensing techniques and intensity analysis. Then the influence of residential choices of slum dwellers on population growth in Lagos slums was assessed using ethnographic survey approach through questionnaires and focus group discussions. An urban growth model coupling logistic regression with modified cellular automata SLEUTH was used to simulate scenarios of the patterns of slum development in Lagos by 2035. RapidEye imagery from 2009 and 2015 was used to create maps for each time point for six land-use categories (water, vegetated area, open space, road, slum, and other urban) in the study area. Intensity analysis was applied to quantify the annual intensity of changes at the category and transition level. An overall accuracy (and kappa coefficient) of 94% (0.9) and 89% (0.86) was achieved for the 2009 and 2015 land-use and land-cover maps. The results of this study show that slums in Lagos increased spatially between 2009 and 2015 gaining a land area of 9.14 km2 influenced by in-migration. However, the intensity analysis reveals slum as an active land-use category, losing some of its land area but also gaining new land area during this period. The annual gain and loss was 10.08% and 6.41%, respectively, compared to the uniform intensity of 3.15%. A systematic process of transition was observed between slums and other urban areas and open space in the interval studied, and this process was mainly influenced by the Lagos state government. The transition from slum to other land-use categories, such as other urban, is attributed to gentrification and demolition processes, while the transition from other land-use categories to slum is due to poor maintenance of existing buildings and encroachment on available spaces in the city. Questionnaires administration and focus group discussion were conducted in four communities (Ajegunle, Iwaya, Itire and Ikorodu) in Lagos to investigate the factors influencing the residential choices and reasons of the people to remain in the Lagos slums. Descriptive statistics was used to analyze and describe the factors influencing the residential location choice, and logistic regression was applied to determine the extent to which the neighborhood and household attributes influence slum dwellers’ decisions to remain in the slums. Over 70% of the respondents were migrants from neighboring geopolitical zones (in Nigeria). The movement patterns of slum dwellers in Lagos support two theories of human mobility in slums: slum as a sink and slum as a final destination. Also, the factors that attracted most of the slum dwellers to the slums (cheap housing, proximity to work, etc.) differ from those that made them stay (duration of stay, housing status, etc.). A hybrid land-use model, which involves the coupling of logistic regression with cellular automata SLEUTH, implemented in XULU, was utilized for the simulation of scenarios of slum growth in Lagos. The scenarios were designed based on the modification of the exclusion layer and the transition rules. The scenario 1 was business as usual with slum development similar to the present trend. The scenario 2 was based on the future population projection for the city, while the scenario 3 was based on limited interference by the government in slum development in the city. Distance to markets, shoreline, and local government administrative buildings, and land prices, etc., were predictors of slum development in Lagos. An overall accuracy of 79.17% and a relative operation characteristics (ROC) value of 0.85 were achieved for the prediction of slum development, based on the logistic regression model. The probability map generated from fitting the coefficients of the estimates in the logistic regression shows that slums can develop within the city and at the fringe, and also in places mostly inaccessible to the Lagos state government. Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 predict that the slum area will increase by 1.18 km2, 4.02 km2 and 1.28 km2, respectively, in 2035 through further densification of the existing slums and new development at the south-eastern fringe of the city. The limited growth is due to the high population density in the city, and thus it is assumed that new slums will probably develop in the neighboring cities due to spill over of the Lagos population. The outcome of this research shows that the landscape is very dynamic in Lagos, and even over an interval of a few years, changes can be observed. It also shows that the integration of remote sensing, social science method and spatially explicit land-use model can address the challenges of data availability in the slum dynamic, especially in sub-Saharan African countries with high slum proliferation. This can support a comprehensive set of techniques important for the management of existing slums and prevention of new slum development.Reduzierung des Slumwachstums in der Megastadt Lagos: Ein integrierter Ansatz aus Fernerkundung und urbanem Wachstumsmodell Eine schnelle Urbanisierung bei begrenzter Entwicklung hat in vielen afrikanischen Städten südlich der Sahara zu einer Zunahme von Slums geführt. Slums werden dabei als Bedrohung für die Planstädte angesehen, da sie nicht den Planungsstandards entsprechen, ihr Wachstum sollte daher reduziert werden. Dies erweist sich jedoch für viele dieser Länder als Herausforderung, da keine Daten über die aktuelle Situation vorliegen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zielt diese Studie darauf ab, Informationen und ein Raumplanungsinstrument zur Unterstützung der Stadtplanung zur Verfügung zu stellen, dies soll ein besseres Management der Slumbildung in Lagos, Nigeria ermöglichen. Slumwachstum kann als räumliches Wachstum, oder als Wachstum der Bevölkerung bezeichnet werden; daher hat diese Studie zunächst das räumliche Wachstum von Slums in Lagos mit Hilfe von Fernerkundungstechniken und Intensitätsanalysen analysiert und quantifiziert. Anschließend wurde der Einfluss der Wohnortwahl von Slumbewohnern auf das Bevölkerungswachstum in den Slums von Lagos mit Hilfe eines ethnographischen Erhebung Ansatzes bewertet. Dabei kamen Fragebögen und Fokusgruppendiskussionen zum Einsatz. Ein urbanes Wachstumsmodell, das die logistische Regression mit dem modifizierten zellulären Automaten SLEUTH koppelt, wurde verwendet, um Szenarien und Strukturen der Slumentwicklung in Lagos bis 2035 zu simulieren. RapidEye-Datenaus den Jahren 2009 und 2015 wurden verwendet, um Karten zu jeden Zeitpunkt für sechs Landnutzungskategorien (Wasser, Vegetationsflächen, Freiflächen, Straßen, Slum und andere städtische Gebiete) zu erstellen. Mit Hilfe der Intensitätsanalyse wurde die jährliche Intensität der Veränderungen hinsichtlich der Kategorien und Veränderungstypen quantifiziert. Für die Landnutzungs- und Bodenbedeckungskarten 2009 und 2015 wurde eine Gesamtgenauigkeit (und ein Kappa-Koeffizient) von 94 % (0,9) und 89 % (0,86) erreicht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zeigen, dass die Slums in Lagos zwischen 2009 und 2015 räumlich gewachsen sind und durch Zuzug eine Landfläche von 9,14 km2 erreicht haben. Die Intensitätsanalyse zeigt auch, dass der Slums in Lagos als aktive Landnutzungskategorie einen Teil ihrer Fläche im Beobachtungszeitraum verloren haben. Der jährliche Gewinn und Verlust betrug 10,08 % bzw. 6,41 % im Vergleich zur einheitlichen Intensität von 3,15 %. Ebenfalls wurde ein systematischer Prozess des Übergangs zwischen Slums und anderen städtischen Gebieten sowie Freiraum in der untersuchten Zeitspanne beobachtet. Dieser Prozess wurde hauptsächlich von der Regierung von Lagos beeinflusst. Der Übergang von Slum zu anderen Landnutzungskategorien, wie zum Beispiel andere städtische Gebiete ist auf Gentrifizierung und Abrissprozesse zurückzuführen, während der Übergang von anderen Landnutzungskategorien hin zu Slums auf eine schlechte Instandhaltung bestehender Gebäude und auf die Beeinträchtigung der verfügbaren Flächen in der Stadt zurückzuführen ist. In vier Gemeinden (Ajegunle, Iwaya, Itire and Ikorodu) in Lagos wurden Umfragen mit Fragebögen und Fokusgruppendiskussionen durchgeführt, um die Faktoren zu untersuchen, welche die Wahl des Wohnortes beeinflussen, und um zu untersuchen, warum die Menschen in den Slums von Lagos bleiben. Mit Hilfe der deskriptiven Statistik wurden die Faktoren analysiert und beschrieben, die die Wahl des Wohnortes beeinflussen, und mit Hilfe der logistischen Regression wurde ermittelt, inwieweit die Nachbarschafts- und Haushaltsattribute die Entscheidung der Slumbewohner, in den Slums zu bleiben, beeinflussen. Über 70 % der Befragten waren Migranten aus benachbarten geopolitischen Zonen (Lagos). Die Bewegungsmuster der Slumbewohner in Lagos unterstützen zwei Theorien der menschlichen Mobilität in Slums: Der Slum als Senke oder Endziel. Auch die Faktoren, die die meisten Slumbewohner in die Slums lockten (günstiger Wohnraum, Nähe zum Arbeitsplatz usw.), unterscheiden sich von denen, die sie am Ende zum Bleiben brachten (Aufenthaltsdauer, Wohnstatus usw.). Ein hybrides Landnutzungsmodell, das eine Kopplung der logistischen Regression mit den zellulären Automaten SLEUTH in XULU verbindet, wurde für die Simulation von Szenarien des Slumwachstums in Lagos bis zum Jahr 2035 verwendet. Die Szenarien wurden mittels der Ausschlussflächen und Wachstumskoeffizienten implementiert. Das Szenario 1 „business as usual“ simulierte eine Slumentwicklung ähnlich dem aktuellen Trend. Das Szenario 2 basierte auf der generellen Bevölkerungsprognose für die Stadt, während das Szenario 3 eine begrenzte Einmischung der Regierung auf die Slumentwicklung in der Stadt einbezieht. Die Entfernung zu Märkten, Verwaltungseinrichtungen, Küsten sowie die Grundstückspreisen usw. waren Antriebskräfte für die Entwicklung der Slums in Lagos. Für die Vorhersage der Slum-Entwicklung auf Basis des logistischen Regressionsmodells wurden eine Gesamtgenauigkeit von 79,17 % und einem Receiver-Operating-Characteristic-Wert (ROC) von 0,85 erreicht. Die Wahrscheinlichkeitskarte, die durch die Anpassung der Koeffizienten und der Schätzungen in der logistischen Regression erzeugt wurde, zeigt, dass sich Slums innerhalb der Stadt und in der Peripherie entwickeln können, aber auch an Orten, die dem Einfluss der Landesregierung von Lagos weitgehend entzogen sind. Szenarien 1, 2 und 3 prognostizieren, dass das Slumgebiet bis 2035 durch weitere Verdichtung der bestehenden Slums und Neuentwicklung am südöstlichen Stadtrand um 1,18 km2, 4,02 km2 bzw. 1,28 km2 zunehmen wird. Das relativ begrenzte Wachstum ist auf die hohe Bevölkerungsdichte in der Stadt zurückzuführen, so dass davon ausgegangen wird, dass sich in den Nachbarstädten durch das Verlagern der Lagos-Bevölkerung neue Slums entwickeln werden Das Ergebnis dieser Disertation zeigt, dass die Stadtlandschaft in Lagos sehr dynamisch ist, Veränderungen können selbst über einen Zeitraum von nur wenigen Jahren beobachtet werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen auch, dass eine Integration von Fernerkundung, sozialwissenschaftlicher Methoden und räumlich explizites Landnutzungsmodells das Problem der geringen Datenverfügbarkeit in dynamischen Slums lösen kann. Dies ist besonders hilfreich in afrikanischen Ländern südlich der Sahara mit hoher Slum,proliferation. Umfassende Techniken des Slum-Managements, insbesondere zur Verhinderung der Entstehung von neuen Slums, können so wirksam unterstützt werden

    Using Hybrid Agent-Based Systems to Model Spatially-Influenced Retail Markets

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    One emerging area of agent-based modelling is retail markets; however, there are problems with modelling such systems. The vast size of such markets makes individual-level modelling, for example of customers, difficult and this is particularly true where the markets are spatially complex. There is an emerging recognition that the power of agent-based systems is enhanced when integrated with other AI-based and conventional approaches. The resulting hybrid models are powerful tools that combine the flexibility of the agent-based methodology with the strengths of more traditional modelling. Such combinations allow us to consider agent-based modelling of such large-scale and complex retail markets. In particular, this paper examines the application of a hybrid agent-based model to a retail petrol market. An agent model was constructed and experiments were conducted to determine whether the trends and patterns of the retail petrol market could be replicated. Consumer behaviour was incorporated by the inclusion of a spatial interaction (SI) model and a network component. The model is shown to reproduce the spatial patterns seen in the real market, as well as well known behaviours of the market such as the "rocket and feathers" effect. In addition the model was successful at predicting the long term profitability of individual retailers. The results show that agent-based modelling has the ability to improve on existing approaches to modelling retail markets.Agents, Spatial Interaction Model, Retail Markets, Networks

    Impact of Landuse Morphology on Urban Transportation

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    People, cities, nations and the world, in general, would remain largely underdeveloped without transportation systems. However, Transportation puts significant pressure on land use and poses a great challenge to urban sustainability in developing countries. This study examines the influence of Land use structure on Intra-urban transportation in the developing city of cities in the West African sub-region – using Enugu city as a case study. The study uses a descriptive research method. A survey was carried out in six districts within the Enugu metropolis based on a stratified, purposive sampling technique. Questionnaires were used as data collection instruments; 400 respondence participated in the study employing Yamane equation. Furthermore, a twelve-hour (7 am to 7 pm) traffic count was conducted to assess traffic volume. The study finding revealed that Transportation within the urban areas is significantly impacted by Land-use structure, city morphology, neighbourhood characteristics in terms of population and residential density of the city. The hypothesis suggests no significant difference between the various land uses across the Enugu metropolis (p = 0.129). It was also discovered that an average of 122,431 Passenger Car Units (PCU) constantly ply the metropolis roads to service a total population of 564,725 daily, indicated a high rate of car dependency. The study surmises that land use generates vehicular traffic, which impacts the socio-economic environment and the effectiveness of the transportation system. The significance of this study is that the findings contribute to the existing knowledge base that would advance stratic policy formation towards acceleration of the uptake of sustainable urban transportation systems in the region. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091758 Full Text: PD

    The moderating effects of environmental munificence on the relationship between business level strategy and performance of hotels in Nigeria

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    The study aims to examine an association between business level strategy (cost leadership strategy and differentiation strategy) on the performance of Nigerian hotels, with the moderating variable of environmental munificence. Hotels industry is a vital tool for the economic growth in Nigeria and it constitutes an important basis of the economic development of the country. As a result of a thorough review of literature, a model was proposed to examine these relationships. This research applied census sampling to gather data from owners/managers of Hotels in Kano State North-West of Nigeria using questionnaire survey design. The study employed descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze the data collected using SPSS statistical package software and smart partial least squares software. The findings of this study indicate that cost leadership strategy have direct significant positive relationship with hotels performance, and surprisingly differentiation strategy was not statistical significance to hotels performance, whereas environmental munificence was found to moderates the relationship between cost leadership strategy, differentiation strategy and performance among hotels. These clearly show the need for sound business level strategy activities, as well as the need for effective environmental munificence ideas among the hotels managers and emphasis should be given to differentiation strategy. The result signifies the appropriateness of PLS in analysis and has contributed better understanding on effect of business level strategy on hotels performance. Similarly, finding of this study can assist practitioners and policy makers in hotels industry support in designing strategic decisions for superior performance. Finally, study implications for theory and practice, limitations, conclusions as well as direction for future research were provided and discussed

    A Review of Flooding and Flood Risk Reduction in Nigeria

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    The prevalence of flooding within Nigeria which has been generally attributed to climate change and poor urban planning is an issue of critical importance within the context of national development Over the period 1985 to 2014 flooding in Nigeria has affected more than 11 million lives with a total of 1100 deaths and property damage exceeding US 17 billion Although more frequent floods are recorded in Niger Adamawa Oyo Kano and Jigawa states possibly due to the influence of rivers Niger Benue Ogun and Hadeja Lagos state seems to have experienced most of the floods in the country With rapid population growth and urbanization in the country the risk of flooding to human lives and properties assumes critical dimensions Critically poor awareness of the hazard is a major impasse towards its management This creates a significant gap in the knowledge of how to improve on the current efforts towards addressing the challenges of flooding in Nigeria Since attempts to tackle the hazard appear to be limited the present study is driven by the need to identify those limitations in the flood management efforts in Nigeria Possible way-forward are suggested based on a critical review of flooding and its management in Nigeria allied with globally acknowledged best practices in flood risk reduction and lessons learned from other countries experiences of flooding It is argued that more robust and scientific approaches to flood risk reduction such as flood modelling and assessment of vulnerability to flooding are lacking Ultimately this study makes recommendations based on three key issues one of which is to align the focus of flood risk reduction in Nigeria with the objectives of such a task in more developed countries such as the United States United Kingdom and the Netherland
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