Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies

Reliability Analysis of Electric Power Systems Considering Cyber Security

The new generation of the electric power system is the modern smart grid which is essentially a cyber and physical system (CPS). Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)/energy management system (EMS) is the key component of CPS, which is becoming the main target of both external and insider cyberattacks. Cybersecurity of the SCADA/EMS system is facing big challenges and influences the reliability of the electric power system. Characteristics of cyber threats will impact the system reliability. System reliability can be influenced by various cyber threats with different attack skill levels and attack paths. Additionally, the change of structure of the target system may also result in the change of the system reliability. However, very limited research is related to the reliability analysis of the electric power system considering cybersecurity issue. A large amount of mathematical methods can be used to quantify the cyber threats and simulation processes can be applied to build the reliability analysis model. For instance, to analyze the vulnerabilities of the SCADA/EMS system in the electric power system, Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be used to model the attack paths of cyberattacks on the exploited vulnerabilities. The mean time-to-compromise (MTTC) and mean time-to-failure (MTTF) based on the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) can be applied to characterize the properties of cyberattacks. What’s more, simulation approaches like non-sequential or sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is able to simulate the system reliability analysis and calculate the reliability indexes. In this thesis, reliability of the SCADA/EMS system in the electric power system considering different cybersecurity issues is analyzed. The Bayesian attack path models of cyberattacks on the SCADA/EMS components are built by Bayesian Networks (BNs), and cyberattacks are quantified by its mean time-to-compromise (MTTC) by applying a modified Semi-Markov Process (SMP) and MTTC models. Based on the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) 96, the system reliability is analyzed by calculating the electric power system reliability indexes like LOLP and EENS through MCS. What’s more, cyberattacks with different lurking strategies are considered and analyzed. According to the simulation results, it shows that the system reliability of the SCADA/EMS system in the electric power system considering cyber security is closely related to the MTTC of cyberattacks, which is influenced by the attack paths, attacking skill levels, and the complexity of the target structure. With the increase of the MTTC values of cyberattacks, LOLP values decrease, which means that the reliability of the system is better, and the system is safer. In addition, with the difficulty level of lurking strategies of cyberattacks getting higher and higher, though the LOLP values of scenarios don’t increase a lot, the EENS values of the corresponding scenarios increase dramatically, which indicates that the system reliability is more unpredictable, and the cyber security is worse. Finally, insider attacks are discussed and corresponding LOLP values and EENS values considering lurking behavior are estimated and compared. Both LOLP and EENS values dramatically increase owing to the insider attacks that result in the lower MTTCs. This indicates that insider attacks can lead to worse impact on system reliability than external cyber attacks. The results of this thesis may contribute to the establishment of perfect countermeasures against with cyber attacks on the electric power system

Reliability Evaluation and Defense Strategy Development for Cyber-physical Power Systems

With the smart grid initiatives in recent years, the electric power grid is rapidly evolving into a complicated and interconnected cyber-physical system. Unfortunately, the wide deployment of cutting-edge communication, control and computer technologies in the power system, as well as the increasing terrorism activities, make the power system at great risk of attacks from both cyber and physical domains. It is pressing and meaningful to investigate the plausible attack scenarios and develop efficient methods for defending the power system against them. To defend the power grid, it is critical to first study how the attacks could happen and affect the power system, which are the basis for the defense strategy development. Thus, this dissertation quantifies the influence of several typical attacks on power system reliability. Specifically, three representative attack are considered, i.e., intrusion against substations, regional LR attack, and coordinated attacks. For the intrusion against substations, the occurrence frequency of the attack events is modeled based on statistical data and human dynamics; game-theoretical approaches are adopted to model induvial and consecutive attack cases; Monte Carlo simulation is deployed to obtain the desired reliability indices, which incorporates both the attacks and the random failures. For the false data injection attack, a practical regional load redistribution (LR) attack strategy is proposed; the man-in-the-middle (MITM) intrusion process is modeled with a semi-Markov process method; the reliability indices are obtained based on the regional LR attack strategy and the MITM intrusion process using Monte Carlo simulation. For the coordinated attacks, a few typical coordination strategies are proposed considering attacking the current-carrying elements as well as attacking the measurements; a bilevel optimization method is applied to develop the optimal coordination strategy. Further, efficient and effective defense strategies are proposed from the perspectives of power system operation strategy and identification of critical elements. Specially, a robustness-oriented power grid operation strategy is proposed considering the element random failures and the risk of man-made attacks. Using this operation strategy, the power system operation is robust, and can minimize the load loss in case of malicious man-made attacks. Also, a multiple-attack-scenario (MAS) defender-attack-defender model is proposed to identify the critical branches that should be defended when an attack is anticipated but the defender has uncertainty about the capability of the attacker. If those identified critical branches are protected, the expected load loss will be minimal

On the Detection of Cyber-Attacks in the Communication Network of IEC 61850 Electrical Substations

The availability of the data within the network communication remains one of the most critical requirement when compared to integrity and confidentiality. Several threats such as Denial of Service (DoS) or flooding attacks caused by Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) poisoning attacks, for instance, might hinder the availability of the communication within IEC 61850 substations. To tackle such threats, a novel method for the Early Detection of Attacks for the GOOSE Network Traffic (EDA4GNeT) is developed in the present work. Few of previously available intrusion detection systems take into account the specific features of IEC 61850 substations and offer a good trade-off between the detection performance and the detection time. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, none of the existing works proposes an early anomaly detection method of GOOSE attacks in the network traffic of IEC 61850 substations that account for the specific characteristics of the network data in electrical substations. The EDA4GNeT method considers the dynamic behavior of network traffic in electrical substations. The mathematical modeling of the GOOSE network traffic first enables the development of the proposed method for anomaly detection. In addition, the developed model can also support the management of the network architecture in IEC 61850 substations based on appropriate performance studies. To test the novel anomaly detection method and compare the obtained results with available techniques, two use cases are used

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics

Assessing and augmenting SCADA cyber security: a survey of techniques

SCADA systems monitor and control critical infrastructures of national importance such as power generation and distribution, water supply, transportation networks, and manufacturing facilities. The pervasiveness, miniaturisations and declining costs of internet connectivity have transformed these systems from strictly isolated to highly interconnected networks. The connectivity provides immense benefits such as reliability, scalability and remote connectivity, but at the same time exposes an otherwise isolated and secure system, to global cyber security threats. This inevitable transformation to highly connected systems thus necessitates effective security safeguards to be in place as any compromise or downtime of SCADA systems can have severe economic, safety and security ramifications. One way to ensure vital asset protection is to adopt a viewpoint similar to an attacker to determine weaknesses and loopholes in defences. Such mind sets help to identify and fix potential breaches before their exploitation. This paper surveys tools and techniques to uncover SCADA system vulnerabilities. A comprehensive review of the selected approaches is provided along with their applicability

A Test bed dedicated to the Study of Vulnerabilities in IEC 61850 Power Utility Automation Networks

International audienceIndustrial control systems rely more and more on digital technologies. Although the cyber risk such technologies induce is widely judged as serious, especially for critical infrastructures, these systems have generally not been designed to serve cybersecurity purposes. Instead they were thought first for serving operational efficiency. It thus becomes critical to study cyber threats in industrial environments and experimental test beds are needed to evaluate risks, physical consequences of cyber incidents, and performance of countermeasures. The test bed we present here focuses on studying cyber risks and their mitigation in IEC 61850 power utility automation systems. The operational part is composed of engineering computers, supervision software, off-the-shelf intelligent relays (Intelligent Electronic Device – IED), a hardware-in-the-loop process simulation, and the cybersecurity tools include an attack generation station and a network analyzer. In this paper, we present the operational part, giving details on the power grid hardware-in-the-loop simulation and its importance in the understanding of cyber consequences on the global system. The article concludes giving preliminary experimental results showing consequences of a false data injection attack on a simple electrical architecture

Information Security Analysis and Auditing of IEC61850 Automated Substations

This thesis is about issues related to the security of electric substations automated by IEC61850, an Ethernet (IEEE 802.3) based protocol. It is about a comprehen­ sive security analysis and development of a viable method of auditing the security of this protocol. The security analysis focuses on the possible threats to an electric substation based on the possible motives of an attacker. Existing methods and met­ rics for assessing the security of computer networks are explored and examined for suitability of use with IEC61850. Existing methods and metrics focus on conven­ tional computers used in computer networks which are fundamentally different from Intelligent Electronic Devices (IED’s) of substations in terms of technical composition and functionality. Hence, there is a need to develop a new method of assessing the security of such devices. The security analysis is then used to derive a new metric scheme to assess the security of IED’s that use IEC61850. This metric scheme is then tested out in a sample audit on a real IEC61850 network and compared with two other commonly used security metrics. The results show that the new metric is good in assessing the security of IED’s themselves. Further analysis on IED security is done by conducting simulated cyber attacks. The results are then used to develop an Intrusion Detection System (IDS) to guard against such attacks. The temporal risk of intrusion on an electric substation is also evaluated