5,702 research outputs found
Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes
Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for
modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the
traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable
variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the
target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a
company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing
behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world
applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be
actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications
the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but
to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct
marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client
(actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive
response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value
of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired
outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally
sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for
those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a
strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning
approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an
instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more
emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take
the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case
studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the
proposed approaches
Contextual Sequence Modeling for Recommendation with Recurrent Neural Networks
Recommendations can greatly benefit from good representations of the user
state at recommendation time. Recent approaches that leverage Recurrent Neural
Networks (RNNs) for session-based recommendations have shown that Deep Learning
models can provide useful user representations for recommendation. However,
current RNN modeling approaches summarize the user state by only taking into
account the sequence of items that the user has interacted with in the past,
without taking into account other essential types of context information such
as the associated types of user-item interactions, the time gaps between events
and the time of day for each interaction. To address this, we propose a new
class of Contextual Recurrent Neural Networks for Recommendation (CRNNs) that
can take into account the contextual information both in the input and output
layers and modifying the behavior of the RNN by combining the context embedding
with the item embedding and more explicitly, in the model dynamics, by
parametrizing the hidden unit transitions as a function of context information.
We compare our CRNNs approach with RNNs and non-sequential baselines and show
good improvements on the next event prediction task
Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences
Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as
exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting
human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our
health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such
predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior,
which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time,
depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled
these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of
broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this
work, we develop a novel statistical model for Time-varying, Interdependent,
and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized,
multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action
propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures
short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through
Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity
logging datasets comprising 12 million actions taken by 20 thousand users over
17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful
predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, our model
improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across
multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance
improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions
such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This
demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in
real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with
implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of
health interventions.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201
Recurrent Poisson Factorization for Temporal Recommendation
Poisson factorization is a probabilistic model of users and items for
recommendation systems, where the so-called implicit consumer data is modeled
by a factorized Poisson distribution. There are many variants of Poisson
factorization methods who show state-of-the-art performance on real-world
recommendation tasks. However, most of them do not explicitly take into account
the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users which is essential
to recommend the right item to the right user at the right time. In this paper,
we introduce Recurrent Poisson Factorization (RPF) framework that generalizes
the classical PF methods by utilizing a Poisson process for modeling the
implicit feedback. RPF treats time as a natural constituent of the model and
brings to the table a rich family of time-sensitive factorization models. To
elaborate, we instantiate several variants of RPF who are capable of handling
dynamic user preferences and item specification (DRPF), modeling the
social-aspect of product adoption (SRPF), and capturing the consumption
heterogeneity among users and items (HRPF). We also develop a variational
algorithm for approximate posterior inference that scales up to massive data
sets. Furthermore, we demonstrate RPF's superior performance over many
state-of-the-art methods on synthetic dataset, and large scale real-world
datasets on music streaming logs, and user-item interactions in M-Commerce
platforms.Comment: Submitted to KDD 2017 | Halifax, Nova Scotia - Canada - sigkdd, Codes
are available at https://github.com/AHosseini/RP
- …