MARKET AND POLICY ISSUES IN MICRO-ECONOMETRIC DEMAND MODELING

Micro-econometric demand modelling has been receiving an increasing attention in empirical research, mainly due to the increasing availability of micro-data. In this paper we provide a review of some relevant market and policy issues that can be analysed with the use of micro-data on demand. Problems arising from the treatment of micro-data are revised, mainly with reference to the standard neo-classical framework, although other approaches are also sketched. Finally, building on previous research, a dynamic model accounting for health issues, mainly obesity, is proposed for future research.Demand and Price Analysis, Health Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

The Long-Term Returns of Obesity Prevention Policies

This study illustrates the importance for policymakers of long-termbudget impact analyses of preventive health policies, specifically those aimed at obesity prevention. The study recommends that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the agency responsible for estimating costs of proposed federal legislation, develop the capacity to estimate the costs of these policies over a 75-year horizon.Obesity rates have doubled among adults in the last twenty years and tripled among children in a single generation. Evidence suggests that by 2040 roughly half the adult population may be obese. Obesity increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, certain types of cancer, stroke, and many other diseases and conditions. These associated conditions carry high financial costs and can be devastating to quality of life. Health care spending due to obesity is estimated to be as high as $210 billion annually, or 21 percent of total national health care spending. When also accounting for the nonmedical costs of obesity, the overall annual cost is estimated to be$450 billion.The Institute of Medicine and other scientific bodies have identified evidence-based strategies for addressing the childhood obesity epidemic. One impediment to pursuing obesity prevention policies at the federal level lies in how their budgetary impacts are assessed. CBO generally uses a ten-year budget window, but effective preventive health measures can have long-run budgetary impacts that differ greatly from their ten-year projections. In fact, very little of the federal savings they induce may be captured in the first decade, especially if an intervention is geared toward children or young adults and yields meaningful impacts on health care costs for individuals receiving Medicare decades in the future. In addition to distorting policymakers' understanding of the net cost of preventive health policies, a narrow budget window also fails to distinguish between effective and ineffective interventions. Because a ten-year window misses most or all of the savings from an effective obesity prevention policy, a tenyear cost estimate for such a policy would not differ from a ten-year estimate for an ineffective one.This study constructs an illustrative model of the long-term budget impact of obesity prevention policies, accounting for the Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and tax effects of preventing obesity. The model demonstrates the complexities involved in reaching a long-term cost estimate. Using four obesity prevention policies and programs as examples, the model generates lifetime (i.e., 75-year) percapita savings estimates for different types of people. In so doing, it makes it possible to compare the discrepancy between 75-year and ten-year cost estimates of a policy to prevent obesity

The Trend of BMI Values among US Adults

Background: The trend in the BMI values of the US population has not been estimated accurately because time series data are unavailable and because the focus has been on calculating period effects.Object: To estimate the trend and rate of change of BMI values by birth cohorts stratified by gender and ethnicity born 1882-1986.Methods: We use loess additive regression models to estimate age and trend effects of BMI values of US-born black and white adults measured between 1959 and 2006. We use all the NHES and NHANES survey data.Results: The increase in BMI was already underway among the birth cohorts of the early 20th century. The rate of increase was fastest among black females; for the three other groups under consideration, the rates of increase were similar. The generally persistent upward trend was punctuated by upsurges, particularly after each of the two World Wars. That the estimated rate of change of BMI values increased by 71% among black females between the birth cohorts 1955 and those of 1965 is indicative of the rapid increases in their weight.Conclusion: We inference that transition to post-industrial weights was a gradual process and began considerably earlier than hitherto supposed.BMI, US, NHANES, obesity, overweight, semiparametric modeling

Human Growth and Body Weight Dynamics: An Integrative Systems Model

Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%–24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations.National Institutes of Health (U.S.). Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (Contract HHSN276201000004C)National Institutes of Health (U.S.). Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (Contract 1R21HL113680-01)

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran : Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank kindly all advisors and colleagues, for their valuable technical support. We would like to thank you Ms Laura Marie Dysart for editing the paper.Peer reviewedPublisher PD