11,201 research outputs found
Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition
Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie
Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system
The study of complex social and political phenomena with the perspective and
methods of network science has proven fruitful in a variety of areas, including
applications in political science and more narrowly the field of international
relations. We propose a new line of research in the study of international
conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international
system (which we label Kantian fractionalization) is a powerful predictor of
the propensity for violent interstate conflict, a key indicator of the system's
stability. In so doing, we also demonstrate the first use of multislice
modularity for community detection in a multiplex network application. Even
after controlling for established system-level conflict indicators, we find
that Kantian fractionalization contributes more to model fit for violent
interstate conflict than previously established measures. Moreover, evaluating
the influence of each of the constituent networks shows that joint democracy
plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging a
major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, a
series of Granger causal tests shows that the temporal variability of Kantian
fractionalization is consistent with a causal relationship with the prevalence
of conflict in the international system. This causal relationship has
real-world policy implications as changes in Kantian fractionalization could
serve as an early warning sign of international instability.Comment: 17 pages + 17 pages designed as supplementary online materia
Global Economic Expansion and the Prevalence of Militarized Interstate Disputes
Over the past several decades the entire world has experienced both the positive and negative effects of globalization. The question that this report will address is whether or not global economic expansion has led to a decline in the prevalence of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and what factors influence the prevalence of MIDs. This report will take an in-depth look at Thomas Friedmanâs âGolden Arches Theory of Conflict Preventionâ. It also includes a quantitative analysis in which regression techniques were used to see how different economic factors influence the prevalence of MIDs, while also introducing a previously unused independent variable that reflects how the presence of multinational corporations within a nationâs economy influences the prevalence of violent conflicts. Results indicate that variables representing contiguity, the lower trade share, and FDI have significant effects on the prevalence of conflict. Furthermore, while the theoretical underpinnings behind Friedmanâs theory appear to be partially correct, empirical analysis of the influence of multinational corporations on the prevalence of conflict yielded no significant conclusions
Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups
AbstractMany rebel organizations receive significant assistance from external governments, yet the reasons why some rebels attract foreign support while others do not is poorly understood. We analyze factors determining external support for insurgent groups from a principal-agent perspective. We focus on both the supply side, that is, when states are willing to support insurgent groups in other states, and the demand side, that is, when groups are willing to accept such support, with the conditions that this may entail. We test our hypotheses using new disaggregated data on insurgent groups and foreign support. Our results indicate that external rebel support is influenced by characteristics of the rebel group as well as linkages between rebel groups and actors in other countries. More specifically, we find that external support is more likely for moderately strong groups where support is more likely to be offered and accepted, in the presence of transnational constituencies, international rivalries, and when the government receives foreign support.</jats:p
Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence
We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing
a theory designed to predict the locations of violence and interventions that
can promote peace. Characterizing the model's success in predicting peace
requires examples where peace prevails despite diversity. Switzerland is
recognized as a country of peace, stability and prosperity. This is surprising
because of its linguistic and religious diversity that in other parts of the
world lead to conflict and violence. Here we analyze how peaceful stability is
maintained. Our analysis shows that peace does not depend on integrated
coexistence, but rather on well defined topographical and political boundaries
separating groups. Mountains and lakes are an important part of the boundaries
between sharply defined linguistic areas. Political canton and circle
(sub-canton) boundaries often separate religious groups. Where such boundaries
do not appear to be sufficient, we find that specific aspects of the population
distribution either guarantee sufficient separation or sufficient mixing to
inhibit intergroup violence according to the quantitative theory of conflict.
In exactly one region, a porous mountain range does not adequately separate
linguistic groups and violent conflict has led to the recent creation of the
canton of Jura. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that violence between
groups can be inhibited by physical and political boundaries. A similar
analysis of the area of the former Yugoslavia shows that during widespread
ethnic violence existing political boundaries did not coincide with the
boundaries of distinct groups, but peace prevailed in specific areas where they
did coincide. The success of peace in Switzerland may serve as a model to
resolve conflict in other ethnically diverse countries and regions of the
world.Comment: paper pages 1-14, 4 figures; appendices pages 15-43, 20 figure
Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars
Although the case-based literature suggests that kin groups are prominent in ethnonationalist conflicts, quantitative studies of civil war onset have both overaggregated and underaggregated the role of ethnicity, by looking at civil war at the country level instead of among specific groups and by treating individual countries as closed units, ignoring groups' transnational links. In this article the authors integrate transnational links into a dyadic perspective on conflict between marginalized ethnic groups and governments. They argue that transnational links can increase the risk of conflict as transnational kin support can facilitate insurgencies and are difficult for governments to target or deter. The empirical analysis, using new geocoded data on ethnic groups on a transnational basis, indicates that the risk of conflict is high when large, excluded ethnic groups have transnational kin in neighboring countries, and it provides strong support for the authors' propositions on the importance of transnational ties in ethnonationalist conflict.</jats:p
- âŠ