Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

Eras of electric vehicles: electric mobility on the Verge. Focus Attention Scale

Daily or casual passenger vehicles in cities have negative burden on our finite world. Transport sector has been one of the main contributors to air pollution and energy depletion. Providing alternative means of transport is a promising strategy perceived by motor manufacturers and researchers. The paper presents the battery electric vehicles-BEVs bibliography that starts with the early eras of invention up till 2015 outlook. It gives a broad overview of BEV market and its technology in a chronological classification while sheds light on the stakeholders’ focus attentions in each stage, the so called, Focus-Attention-Scale-FAS. The attention given in each era is projected and parsed in a scale graph, which varies between micro, meso, and macro-scale. BEV-system is on the verge of experiencing massive growth; however, the system entails a variety of substantial challenges. Observations show the main issues of BEVsystem that require more attention followed by the authors’ recommendations towards an emerging market

Urban land planning: The role of a Master Plan in influencing local temperatures

Land use planning (LUP) is central for managing issues related to climatic variation in urban environments. However, Master Plans (MPs) usually do not include climatic aspects, and few studies have addressed climate change at the urban scale, especially in developing countries. This paper proposes a framework with ten categories for assessment of climatic variation in urban LUP. Each category comprises attributes that describe a complex of relationships in influencing local temperature variations. They are analyzed for the case of the Master Plan of Porto Alegre (MPPA), the Southernmost metropolis of Brazil. It is concluded that the MPPA is strongly grounded in climate-related land and zoning coordination, but exhibits weaknesses in building, cartographical and social aspects considered synergistically relevant for tackling problems related to urban climate variation. Furthermore, the MPPA does not contain provisions related to monitoring of local climate and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and it is ineffective for improving energy efficiency. Specific MPPA failures stemming from these weaknesses include: an increase of 21.79% in the city's urbanized area from 1986 to 2011 to accommodate a similar increase in population, with significant horizontal sprawl; average temperature rise of 0.392. °C from 1991-2000 to 2001-2010, with statistically significant increases in temperature found since 1931; significant vehicle traffic increases, especially since 2007. From these findings, it is possible to conclude that the MPPA does not offer answers to all the imbalances related to land use, and therefore gives insufficient support to tackle the issue of rising temperatures