1,323 research outputs found
Stochastic Dynamics of Cascading Failures in Electric-Cyber Infrastructures
Emerging smart grids consist of tightly-coupled systems, namely a power grid and a communication system. While today\u27s power grids are highly reliable and modern control and communication systems have been deployed to further enhance their reliability, historical data suggest that they are yet vulnerable to large failures. A small set of initial disturbances in power grids in conjunction with lack of effective, corrective actions in a timely manner can trigger a sequence of dependent component failures, called cascading failures. The main thrust of this dissertation is to build a probabilistic framework for modeling cascading failures in power grids while capturing their interactions with the coupled communication systems so that the risk of cascading failures in the composite complex electric-cyber infrastructures can be examined, analyzed and predicted. A scalable and analytically tractable continuous-time Markov chain model for stochastic dynamics of cascading failures in power grids is constructed while retaining key physical attributes and operating characteristics of the power grid. The key idea of the proposed framework is to simplify the state space of the complex power system while capturing the effects of the omitted variables through the transition probabilities and their parametric dependence on physical attributes and operating characteristics of the system. In particular, the effects of the interdependencies between the power grid and the communication system have been captured by a parametric formulation of the transition probabilities using Monte-Carlo simulations of cascading failures. The cascading failures are simulated with a coupled power-system simulation framework, which is also developed in this dissertation. Specifically, the probabilistic model enables the prediction of the evolution of the blackout probability in time. Furthermore, the asymptotic analysis of the blackout probability as time tends to infinity enables the calculation of the probability mass function of the blackout size, which has been shown to have a heavy tail, e.g., power-law distribution, specifically when the grid is operating under stress scenarios. A key benefit of the model is that it enables the characterization of the severity of cascading failures in terms of a set of operating characteristics of the power grid. As a generalization to the Markov chain model, a regeneration-based model for cascading failures is also developed. The regeneration-based framework is capable of modeling cascading failures in a more general setting where the probability distribution of events in the system follows an arbitrarily specified distribution with non-Markovian characteristics. Further, a novel interdependent Markov chain model is developed, which provides a general probabilistic framework for capturing the effects of interactions among interdependent infrastructures on cascading failures. A key insight obtained from this model is that interdependencies between two systems can make two individually reliable systems behave unreliably. In particular, we show that due to the interdependencies two chains with non-heavy tail asymptotic failure distribution can result in a heavy tail distribution when coupled. Lastly, another aspect of future smart grids is studied by characterizing the fundamental bounds on the information rate in the sensor network that monitors the power grid. Specifically, a distributed source coding framework is presented that enables an improved estimate of the lower bound for the minimum required communication capacity to accurately describe the state of components in the information-centric power grid. The models developed in this dissertation provide critical understanding of cascading failures in electric-cyber infrastructures and facilitate reliable and quick detection of the risk of blackouts and precursors to cascading failures. These capabilities can guide the design of efficient communication systems and cascade aware control policies for future smart grids
Analyzing Cascading Failures in Smart Grids under Random and Targeted Attacks
We model smart grids as complex interdependent networks, and study targeted
attacks on smart grids for the first time. A smart grid consists of two
networks: the power network and the communication network, interconnected by
edges. Occurrence of failures (attacks) in one network triggers failures in the
other network, and propagates in cascades across the networks. Such cascading
failures can result in disintegration of either (or both) of the networks.
Earlier works considered only random failures. In practical situations, an
attacker is more likely to compromise nodes selectively.
We study cascading failures in smart grids, where an attacker selectively
compromises the nodes with probabilities proportional to their degrees; high
degree nodes are compromised with higher probability. We mathematically analyze
the sizes of the giant components of the networks under targeted attacks, and
compare the results with the corresponding sizes under random attacks. We show
that networks disintegrate faster for targeted attacks compared to random
attacks. A targeted attack on a small fraction of high degree nodes
disintegrates one or both of the networks, whereas both the networks contain
giant components for random attack on the same fraction of nodes.Comment: Accepted for publication in 28th IEEE International Conference on
Advanced Information Networking and Applications (AINA) 201
A Colonel Blotto Game for Interdependence-Aware Cyber-Physical Systems Security in Smart Cities
Smart cities must integrate a number of interdependent cyber-physical systems
that operate in a coordinated manner to improve the well-being of the city's
residents. A cyber-physical system (CPS) is a system of computational elements
controlling physical entities. Large-scale CPSs are more vulnerable to attacks
due to the cyber-physical interdependencies that can lead to cascading failures
which can have a significant detrimental effect on a city. In this paper, a
novel approach is proposed for analyzing the problem of allocating security
resources, such as firewalls and anti-malware, over the various cyber
components of an interdependent CPS to protect the system against imminent
attacks. The problem is formulated as a Colonel Blotto game in which the
attacker seeks to allocate its resources to compromise the CPS, while the
defender chooses how to distribute its resources to defend against potential
attacks. To evaluate the effects of defense and attack, various CPS factors are
considered including human-CPS interactions as well as physical and topological
characteristics of a CPS such as flow and capacity of interconnections and
minimum path algorithms. Results show that, for the case in which the attacker
is not aware of the CPS interdependencies, the defender can have a higher
payoff, compared to the case in which the attacker has complete information.
The results also show that, in the case of more symmetric nodes, due to
interdependencies, the defender achieves its highest payoff at the equilibrium
compared to the case with independent, asymmetric nodes
Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependency
Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power
and communication systems, will have important implications for the reliability
and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication
coupling, several have studied interdependent network models and reported that
increased coupling can increase system vulnerability. However, these results
come from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading,
relative to those found in actual power and communication networks. This paper
reports on two sets of experiments that compare the network vulnerability
implications resulting from simple topological models and models that more
accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we
compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in
power systems and find that the power grid shows a much higher level of
vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a model of
topological cascades in coupled networks to three different physics-based
models of power grids coupled to communication networks. Again, the more
accurate models suggest very different conclusions. In all but the most extreme
case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased
power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from
what one would conclude from the coupled topological model, in which zero
coupling is optimal. Finally, an extreme case in which communication failures
immediately cause grid failures, suggests that if systems are poorly designed,
increased coupling can be harmful. Together these results suggest design
strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure
systems
Modelling and vulnerability analysis of cyber-physical power systems based on interdependent networks
The strong coupling between the power grid and communication systems may contribute to failure propagation, which may easily lead to cascading failures or blackouts. In this paper, in order to quantitatively analyse the impact of interdependency on power system vulnerability, we put forward a “degree–electrical degree” independent model of cyber-physical power systems (CPPS), a new type of assortative link, through identifying the important nodes in a power grid based on the proposed index–electrical degree, and coupling them with the nodes in a communication system with a high degree, based on one-to-one correspondence. Using the double-star communication system and the IEEE 118-bus power grid to form an artificial interdependent network, we evaluated and compare the holistic vulnerability of CPPS under random attack and malicious attack, separately based on three kinds of interdependent models: “degree–betweenness”, “degree–electrical degree” and “random link”. The simulation results demonstrated that different link patterns, coupling degrees and attack types all can influence the vulnerability of CPPS. The CPPS with a “degree–electrical degree” interdependent model proposed in this paper presented a higher robustness in the face of random attack, and moreover performed better than the degree–betweenness interdependent model in the face of malicious attack
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