Modeling good research practices - overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force - 1.

Models—mathematical frameworks that facilitate estimation of the consequences of health care decisions—have become essential tools for health technology assessment. Evolution of the methods since the first ISPOR modeling task force reported in 2003 has led to a new task force, jointly convened with the Society for Medical Decision Making, and this series of seven papers presents the updated recommendations for best practices in conceptualizing models; implementing state–transition approaches, discrete event simulations, or dynamic transmission models; dealing with uncertainty; and validating and reporting models transparently. This overview introduces the work of the task force, provides all the recommendations, and discusses some quandaries that require further elucidation. The audience for these papers includes those who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and, indeed, anyone concerned with the use of models to support decision making

Cybersecurity Risk Analysis of Industrial Automation Systems on the Basis of Cognitive Modeling Technology

The issues of procuring the cybersecurity of modern industrial systems and networks acquire special urgency because of imperfection of their protection tools and presence of vulnerabilities. International standards ISA/IEC 62443 offer the system risk-oriented approach to solve the tasks of providing the security of industrial control systems (ICS) at all stages of life cycle. But in view of high uncertainty and complexity of procedure of formalizing the factors affecting the final indices of system security, the problem of cybersecurity risk assessment remains open and requires applying new approaches based on the technology of data mining and cognitive modeling. Cognitive modeling of risk assessment using fuzzy grey cognitive maps (FGCM) allows us to take into account the uncertainty factor arising in the process of vulnerability probability assessment for each of security nodes. The interval estimates of FGCM connection weights can reflect the scatter of expert group opinions that allows us to take into account more completely the data available for risk analysis. The main stages of ICS security assessment with use of FGCM are analyzed in the chapter on the example of distributed industrial automation network. The recommendations concerning the choice of the necessary countermeasures improving the level of network security in the conditions of possible external and internal threats are considered

Departures from cost-effectiveness recommendations: The impact of health system constraints on priority setting

The methods and application of cost-effectiveness analysis have reached an advanced stage of development. Many decision makers consider cost-effectiveness analysis to be a valid and feasible approach towards setting health priorities, and it has been extensively applied in evaluating interventions and developing evidence based clinical guidelines. However, the recommendations arising from cost-effectiveness analysis are often not implemented as intended. A fundamental reason for the failure to implement is that CEA assumes a single constraint, in the form of the budget constraint, whilst in reality decision-makers may be faced with numerous other constraints. The objective of this paper is to develop a typology of constraints that may act as barriers to implementation of cost-effectiveness recommendations. Six categories of constraints are considered: the design of the health system; costs of implementing change; system interactions between interventions; uncertainty in estimates of costs and benefits; weak governance; and political constraints. Where possible -and if applicable- for each class of constraint, the paper discusses ways in which these constraints can be taken into account by a decision maker wishing to pursue the principles of cost-effectiveness

Research and Education in Computational Science and Engineering

Over the past two decades the field of computational science and engineering (CSE) has penetrated both basic and applied research in academia, industry, and laboratories to advance discovery, optimize systems, support decision-makers, and educate the scientific and engineering workforce. Informed by centuries of theory and experiment, CSE performs computational experiments to answer questions that neither theory nor experiment alone is equipped to answer. CSE provides scientists and engineers of all persuasions with algorithmic inventions and software systems that transcend disciplines and scales. Carried on a wave of digital technology, CSE brings the power of parallelism to bear on troves of data. Mathematics-based advanced computing has become a prevalent means of discovery and innovation in essentially all areas of science, engineering, technology, and society; and the CSE community is at the core of this transformation. However, a combination of disruptive developments---including the architectural complexity of extreme-scale computing, the data revolution that engulfs the planet, and the specialization required to follow the applications to new frontiers---is redefining the scope and reach of the CSE endeavor. This report describes the rapid expansion of CSE and the challenges to sustaining its bold advances. The report also presents strategies and directions for CSE research and education for the next decade.Comment: Major revision, to appear in SIAM Revie

A Study on Green Economy Indicators and Modeling: Russian Context

This article aims to assess and forecast the dynamics of a regional green economy. The research relevance is determined by the need to develop theoretical and methodological basis of the green economy for the transition period and to identify criteria basis for assessing the state and regional level of it. The authors applied the modern methods, which allowed to model criteria considering data uncertainty and both static and dynamic criteria. The research process involved the methods of scientific analysis, comparison and synthesis, the theory of fuzzy sets, and fuzzy modeling. The main principles and methodology of the criteria evaluation for a regional green economy are proposed. The principal methodological approach in this research combines the current state and dynamics of the green economy in evaluating and forecasting the conditions of data uncertainty. The research results form a theoretical, methodological, and practical basis for assessing the current state and level of a regional green economy development, determining the effectiveness of environmental and economic programs, optimizing financial management, conducting environmental monitoring, and developing state plans.The research was funded by the grant of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation to Perm National Research Polytechnic University # 26.6884.2017/8.9 "Sustainable development of urban areas and the improvement of the human environment.

A Study on Green Economy Indicators and Modeling: Russian Context

This article aims to assess and forecast the dynamics of a regional green economy. The research relevance is determined by the need to develop theoretical and methodological basis of the green economy for the transition period and to identify criteria basis for assessing the state and regional level of it. The authors applied the modern methods, which allowed to model criteria considering data uncertainty and both static and dynamic criteria. The research process involved the methods of scientific analysis, comparison and synthesis, the theory of fuzzy sets, and fuzzy modeling. The main principles and methodology of the criteria evaluation for a regional green economy are proposed. The principal methodological approach in this research combines the current state and dynamics of the green economy in evaluating and forecasting the conditions of data uncertainty. The research results form a theoretical, methodological, and practical basis for assessing the current state and level of a regional green economy development, determining the effectiveness of environmental and economic programs, optimizing financial management, conducting environmental monitoring, and developing state plans.The research was funded by the grant of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation to Perm National Research Polytechnic University # 26.6884.2017/8.9 "Sustainable development of urban areas and the improvement of the human environment.

Where should livestock graze? Integrated modeling and optimization to guide grazing management in the Cañete basin, Peru

Integrated watershed management allows decision-makers to balance competing objectives, for example agricultural production and protection of water resources. Here, we developed a spatially-explicit approach to support such management in the Cañete watershed, Peru. We modeled the effect of grazing management on three services – livestock production, erosion control, and baseflow provision – and used an optimization routine to simulate landscapes providing the highest level of services. Over the entire watershed, there was a trade-off between livestock productivity and hydrologic services and we identified locations that minimized this trade-off for a given set of preferences. Given the knowledge gaps in ecohydrology and practical constraints not represented in the optimizer, we assessed the robustness of spatial recommendations, i.e. revealing areas most often selected by the optimizer. We conclude with a discussion of the practical decisions involved in using optimization frameworks to inform watershed management programs, and the research needs to better inform the design of such programs

The influence of national culture on the attitude towards mobile recommender systems

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.This study aimed to identify factors that influence user attitudes towards mobile recommender systems and to examine how these factors interact with cultural values to affect attitudes towards this technology. Based on the theory of reasoned action, belief factors for mobile recommender systems are identified in three dimensions: functional, contextual, and social. Hypotheses explaining different impacts of cultural values on the factors affecting attitudes were also proposed. The research model was tested based on data collected in China, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Findings indicate that functional and social factors have significant impacts on user attitudes towards mobile recommender systems. The relationships between belief factors and attitudes are moderated by two cultural values: collectivism and uncertainty avoidance. The theoretical and practical implications of applying theory of reasoned action and innovation diffusion theory to explain the adoption of new technologies in societies with different cultures are also discussed.National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean governmen