Generalized gap acceptance models for unsignalized intersections

This paper contributes to the modeling and analysis of unsignalized intersections. In classical gap acceptance models vehicles on the minor road accept any gap greater than the CRITICAL gap, and reject gaps below this threshold, where the gap is the time between two subsequent vehicles on the major road. The main contribution of this paper is to develop a series of generalizations of existing models, thus increasing the model's practical applicability significantly. First, we incorporate {driver impatience behavior} while allowing for a realistic merging behavior; we do so by distinguishing between the critical gap and the merging time, thus allowing MULTIPLE vehicles to use a sufficiently large gap. Incorporating this feature is particularly challenging in models with driver impatience. Secondly, we allow for multiple classes of gap acceptance behavior, enabling us to distinguish between different driver types and/or different vehicle types. Thirdly, we use the novel M$^X$/SM2/1 queueing model, which has batch arrivals, dependent service times, and a different service-time distribution for vehicles arriving in an empty queue on the minor road (where `service time' refers to the time required to find a sufficiently large gap). This setup facilitates the analysis of the service-time distribution of an arbitrary vehicle on the minor road and of the queue length on the minor road. In particular, we can compute the MEAN service time, thus enabling the evaluation of the capacity for the minor road vehicles

Estimation of safety performance functions for urban intersections using various functional forms of the negative binomial regression model and a generalized Poisson regression model

Intersections are established dangerous entities of a highway system due to the challenging and unsafe roadway environment they are characterized for drivers and other road users. In efforts to improve safety, an enormous interest has been shown in developing statistical models for intersection crash prediction and explanation. The selection of an adequate form of the statistical model is of great importance for the accurate estimation of crash frequency and the correct identification of crash contributing factors. Using a six-year crash data, road infrastructure and geometric design data, and traffic flow data of urban intersections, we applied three different functional forms of negative binomial models (i.e., NB-1, NB-2, NB-P) and a generalized Poisson (GP) model to develop safety performance functions (SPF) by crash severity for signalized and unsignalized intersections. This paper presents the relationships found between the explanatory variables and the expected crash frequency. It reports the comparison of different models for total, injury & fatal, and property damage only crashes in order to obtain ones with the maximum estimation accuracy. The comparison of models was based on the goodness of fit and the prediction performance measures. The fitted models showed that the traffic flow and several variables related to road infrastructure and geometric design significantly influence the intersection crash frequency. Further, the goodness of fit and the prediction performance measures revealed that the NB-P model outperformed other models in most crash severity levels for signalized intersections. For the unsignalized intersections, the GP model was the best performing model. When only the NB models were compared, the functional form NB-P performed better than the traditional NB-1 and, more specifically, the NB-2 models. In conclusion, our findings suggest a potential improvement in the estimation accuracy of the SPFs for urban intersections by applying the NB-P and GP models

Analysis of distracted pedestrians' waiting time: Head-Mounted Immersive Virtual Reality application

This paper analyzes the distracted pedestrians' waiting time before crossing the road in three conditions: 1) not distracted, 2) distracted with a smartphone and 3) distracted with a smartphone in the presence of virtual flashing LED lights on the crosswalk as a safety measure. For the means of data collection, we adapted an in-house developed virtual immersive reality environment (VIRE). A total of 42 volunteers participated in the experiment. Participants' positions and head movements were recorded and used to calculate walking speeds, acceleration and deceleration rates, surrogate safety measures, time spent playing smartphone game, etc. After a descriptive analysis on the data, the effects of these variables on pedestrians' waiting time are analyzed by employing a cox proportional hazard model. Several factors were identified as having impact on waiting time. The results show that an increase in initial walk speed, percentage of time the head was oriented toward smartphone during crossing, bigger minimum missed gaps and unsafe crossings resulted in shorter waiting times. On the other hand, an increase in the percentage of time the head was oriented toward smartphone during waiting time, crossing time and maze solving time, means longer waiting times for participants.Comment: Published in the proceedings of Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 201

An empirical delay model for application in unsignalized intersections in dynamic traffic assignment

textUp until recently, unsignalized nodes have been either ignored or inadequately represented in Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) models. This is due to the difficult nature of incorporating internal node conflicts into dynamic flow models. It was thought or assumed that these nodes had little impact on overall model results, but evidence from testing in Visual Interactive System for Transportation Algorithms (VISTA), a DTA model, reveals that may not be the case. This paper explores recent attempts at characterizing stop sign effects within DTA flow models. From previous studies, it has been found that incorporating these unsignalized and priority movements internal to the flow model requires large amounts of computational power, are challenging to make efficient, and lead to a multiple or infinite solution space. Based on these findings, a deterministic approach is both impractical and likely impossible in the existing framework of the Cell Transmission (CTM) and Link Transmission (LTM) models commonly used in DTA. Thus, a method of utilizing empirical relationships based on information readily available in these models may be a more acceptable approach. Microsimulation is much more suitable for modeling these types of interactions and is capable of producing results near to reality. For this reason, microsimulation was chosen as a viable method for developing empirical relationships of such complex interactions to then be used as inputs into the macroscopic flow models of DTA. This paper presents a model developed to calculate delays expected by vehicles at stop approaches based on information that can be taken from a dynamic flow model such as CTM and LTM models. This model is validated by video data recorded and analyzed for accuracy. Potential uses and probable implementations of the model are explored to appropriately incorporate unsignalized and priority movements into existing flow models.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Comprehensive Analytical Investigation Of The Safety Of Unsignalized Intersections

According to documented statistics, intersections are among the most hazardous locations on roadway systems. Many studies have extensively analyzed safety of signalized intersections, but did not put their major focus on the most frequent type of intersections, unsignalized intersections. Unsignalized intersections are those intersections with stop control, yield control and no traffic control. Unsignalized intersections can be differentiated from their signalized counterparts in that their operational functions take place without the presence of a traffic signal. In this dissertation, multiple approaches of analyzing safety at unsignalized intersections were conducted. This was investigated in this study by analyzing total crashes, the most frequent crash types at unsignalized intersections (rear-end as well as angle crashes) and crash injury severity. Additionally, an access management analysis was investigated with respect to the different median types identified in this study. Some of the developed methodological techniques in this study are considered recent, and have not been extensively applied. In this dissertation, the most extensive data collection effort for unsignalized intersections was conducted. There were 2500 unsignalized intersections collected from six counties in the state of Florida. These six counties were Orange, Seminole, Hillsborough, Brevard, Leon and Miami-Dade. These selected counties are major counties representing the central, western, eastern, northern and southern parts in Florida, respectively. Hence, a geographic representation of the state of Florida was achieved. Important intersections\u27 geometric and roadway features, minor approach traffic control, major approach traffic flow and crashes were obtained. The traditional negative binomial (NB) regression model was used for modeling total crash frequency for two years at unsignalized intersections. This was considered since the NB technique is well accepted for modeling crash count data suffering from over-dispersion. The NB models showed several important variables affecting safety at unsignalized intersections. These include the traffic volume on the major road and the existence of stop signs, and among the geometric characteristics, the configuration of the intersection, number of right and/or left turn lanes, median type on the major road, and left and right shoulder widths. Afterwards, a new approach of applying the Bayesian updating concept for better crash prediction was introduced. Different non-informative and informative prior structures using the NB and log-gamma distributions were attempted. The log-gamma distribution showed the best prediction capability. Crash injury severity at unsignalized intersections was analyzed using the ordered probit, binary probit and nested logit frameworks. The binary probit method was considered the best approach based on its goodness-of-fit statistics. The common factors found in the fitted probit models were the logarithm of AADT on the major road, and the speed limit on the major road. It was found that higher severity (and fatality) probability is always associated with a reduction in AADT, as well as an increase in speed limit. A recently developed data mining technique, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique, which is capable of yielding high prediction accuracy, was used to analyze rear-end as well as angle crashes. MARS yielded the best prediction performance while dealing with continuous responses. Additionally, screening the covariates using random forest before fitting MARS model was very encouraging. Finally, an access management analysis was performed with respect to six main median types associated with unsignalized intersections/access points. These six median types were open, closed, directional (allowing access from both sides), two-way left turn lane, undivided and mixed medians (e.g., directional median, but allowing access from one side only). Also, crash conflict patterns at each of these six medians were identified and applied to a dataset including median-related crashes. In this case, separating median-related and intersection-related crashes was deemed significant in the analysis. From the preliminary analysis, open medians were considered the most hazardous median type, and closed and undivided medians were the safest. The binomial logit and bivariate probit models showed significant median-related variables affecting median-related crashes, such as median width, speed limit on the major road, logarithm of AADT, logarithm of the upstream and downstream distances to the nearest signalized intersection and crash pattern. The results from the different methodological approaches introduced in this study could be applicable to diagnose safety deficiencies identified. For example, to reduce crash severity, prohibiting left turn maneuvers from minor intersection approaches is recommended. To reduce right-angle crashes, avoiding installing two-way left turn lanes at 4-legged intersections is essential. To reduce conflict points, closing median openings across from intersections is recommended. Since left-turn and angle crash patterns were the most dominant at undivided medians, it is recommended to avoid left turn maneuvers at unsignalized intersections having undivided medians at their approach. This could be enforced by installing a left-turn prohibition sign on both major and minor approaches

ESTIMATION OF PEDESTRIAN SAFETY AT INTERSECTIONS USING SIMULATION AND SURROGATE SAFETY MEASURES

With the number of vehicles increasing in the system every day, many statewide policies across the United States aim to increase the use of non- motorized transportation modes. This could have safety implications because the interaction between motorists and non-motorists could increase and potentially increasing pedestrian-vehicle crashes. Few models that predict the number of pedestrian crashes are not sensitive to site-specific conditions or intersection designs that may influence pedestrian crashes. Moreover, traditional statistical modeling techniques rely extensively on the sparsely available pedestrian crash database. This study focused on overcoming these limitations by developing models that quantify potential interactions between pedestrians and vehicles at various intersection designs using as surrogate safety measure the time to conflict. Several variables that capture volumes, intersection geometry, and operational performance were evaluated for developing pedestrian-vehicle conflict models for different intersection designs. Linear regression models were found to be best fit and potential conflict models were developed for signalized, unsignalized and roundabout intersections. Volume transformations were applied to signalized and unsignalized conditions to develop statistical models for unconventional intersections. The pedestrian-vehicle conflicting volumes, the number of lanes that pedestrians are exposed to vehicles, the percentage of turning vehicles, and the intersection conflict location (major or minor approach) were found to be significant predictors for estimating pedestrian safety at signalized and unsignalized intersections. For roundabouts, the pedestrian-vehicle conflicting volumes, the number of lanes that pedestrians have to cross, and the intersection conflict location (major or minor approach) were found to be significant predictors. Signalized intersection models were used for bowtie and median U-turn intersections using appropriate volume transformations. The combination of signalized intersection models for the intersection area and two-way unsignalized intersection models for the ramp area of the jughandle intersections were utilized with appropriate volume transformations. These models can be used to compare alternative intersection designs and provide designers and planners with a surrogate measure of pedestrian safety level for each intersection design examined

Evaluating the Operational Impact of Left-Turn Exclusive Number of Lanes: A Case Study from Qatar

Left-turning movements can significantly reduce the overall capacity of signalized intersections due to the queueing built up. Intersections with heavy left-turning volumes tend to use multiple lanes to accommodate left-turn movements, such as double and triple left-turn lanes. This study compares the potential impact of different left-turn configurations for saturated/near saturated levels. A signalized intersection located in the city of Doha, Qatar, is selected to be examined and evaluated. A microscopic simulation approach is used to replicate the existing conditions before implementing different traffic demands, left-turn bay configurations, and traffic control parameters. The results suggest that signalized intersections, in general, and left-turn movements, in particular, benefit from multiple left-turn lanes. However, the anticipated operational benefits vary depending on several factors, such as the demand for left-turn movements and the length of the left-turn bay. The findings obtained from this study could be helpful for planners and decision-makers to decide the type of left-turn lane treatment needed to increase the capacity for different conditions. This work can be extended to mathematically quantify the expected operational improvements at signalized intersection