STAR: A Concise Deep Learning Framework for Citywide Human Mobility Prediction

Human mobility forecasting in a city is of utmost importance to transportation and public safety, but with the process of urbanization and the generation of big data, intensive computing and determination of mobility pattern have become challenging. This study focuses on how to improve the accuracy and efficiency of predicting citywide human mobility via a simpler solution. A spatio-temporal mobility event prediction framework based on a single fully-convolutional residual network (STAR) is proposed. STAR is a highly simple, general and effective method for learning a single tensor representing the mobility event. Residual learning is utilized for training the deep network to derive the detailed result for scenarios of citywide prediction. Extensive benchmark evaluation results on real-world data demonstrate that STAR outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in single- and multi-step prediction while utilizing fewer parameters and achieving higher efficiency.Comment: Accepted by MDM 201

Context-Specific Preference Learning of One Dimensional Quantitative Geospatial Attributes Using a Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

Change detection is a topic of great importance for modern geospatial information systems. Digital aerial imagery provides an excellent medium to capture geospatial information. Rapidly evolving environments, and the availability of increasing amounts of diverse, multiresolutional imagery bring forward the need for frequent updates of these datasets. Analysis and query of spatial data using potentially outdated data may yield results that are sometimes invalid. Due to measurement errors (systematic, random) and incomplete knowledge of information (uncertainty) it is ambiguous if a change in a spatial dataset has really occurred. Therefore we need to develop reliable, fast, and automated procedures that will effectively report, based on information from a new image, if a change has actually occurred or this change is simply the result of uncertainty. This thesis introduces a novel methodology for change detection in spatial objects using aerial digital imagery. The uncertainty of the extraction is used as a quality estimate in order to determine whether change has occurred. For this goal, we develop a fuzzy-logic system to estimate uncertainty values fiom the results of automated object extraction using active contour models (a.k.a. snakes). The differential snakes change detection algorithm is an extension of traditional snakes that incorporates previous information (i.e., shape of object and uncertainty of extraction) as energy functionals. This process is followed by a procedure in which we examine the improvement of the uncertainty at the absence of change (versioning). Also, we introduce a post-extraction method for improving the object extraction accuracy. In addition to linear objects, in this thesis we extend differential snakes to track deformations of areal objects (e.g., lake flooding, oil spills). From the polygonal description of a spatial object we can track its trajectory and areal changes. Differential snakes can also be used as the basis for similarity indices for areal objects. These indices are based on areal moments that are invariant under general affine transformation. Experimental results of the differential snakes change detection algorithm demonstrate their performance. More specifically, we show that the differential snakes minimize the false positives in change detection and track reliably object deformations

Modeling, Predicting and Capturing Human Mobility

Realistic models of human mobility are critical for modern day applications, specifically for recommendation systems, resource planning and process optimization domains. Given the rapid proliferation of mobile devices equipped with Internet connectivity and GPS functionality today, aggregating large sums of individual geolocation data is feasible. The thesis focuses on methodologies to facilitate data-driven mobility modeling by drawing parallels between the inherent nature of mobility trajectories, statistical physics and information theory. On the applied side, the thesis contributions lie in leveraging the formulated mobility models to construct prediction workflows by adopting a privacy-by-design perspective. This enables end users to derive utility from location-based services while preserving their location privacy. Finally, the thesis presents several approaches to generate large-scale synthetic mobility datasets by applying machine learning approaches to facilitate experimental reproducibility

A COMPREHENSIVE GEOSPATIAL KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY FRAMEWORK FOR SPATIAL ASSOCIATION RULE MINING

Continuous advances in modern data collection techniques help spatial scientists gain access to massive and high-resolution spatial and spatio-temporal data. Thus there is an urgent need to develop effective and efficient methods seeking to find unknown and useful information embedded in big-data datasets of unprecedentedly large size (e.g., millions of observations), high dimensionality (e.g., hundreds of variables), and complexity (e.g., heterogeneous data sources, space–time dynamics, multivariate connections, explicit and implicit spatial relations and interactions). Responding to this line of development, this research focuses on the utilization of the association rule (AR) mining technique for a geospatial knowledge discovery process. Prior attempts have sidestepped the complexity of the spatial dependence structure embedded in the studied phenomenon. Thus, adopting association rule mining in spatial analysis is rather problematic. Interestingly, a very similar predicament afflicts spatial regression analysis with a spatial weight matrix that would be assigned a priori, without validation on the specific domain of application. Besides, a dependable geospatial knowledge discovery process necessitates algorithms supporting automatic and robust but accurate procedures for the evaluation of mined results. Surprisingly, this has received little attention in the context of spatial association rule mining. To remedy the existing deficiencies mentioned above, the foremost goal for this research is to construct a comprehensive geospatial knowledge discovery framework using spatial association rule mining for the detection of spatial patterns embedded in geospatial databases and to demonstrate its application within the domain of crime analysis. It is the first attempt at delivering a complete geo-spatial knowledge discovery framework using spatial association rule mining

D3P : Data-driven demand prediction for fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems

The future of urban mobility is expected to be shared and electric. It is not only a more sustainable paradigm that can reduce emissions, but can also bring societal benefits by offering a more affordable on-demand mobility option to the general public. Many car sharing service providers as well as automobile manufacturers are entering the competition by expanding both their EV fleets and renting/returning station networks, aiming to seize a share of the market and to bring car sharing to the zero emissions level. During their fast expansion, one determinant for success is the ability of predicting the demand of stations as the entire system is growing continuously. There are several challenges in this demand prediction problem: First, unlike most of the existing work which predicts demand only for static systems or at few stages of expansion, in the real world we often need to predict the demand as or even before stations are being deployed or closed, to provide information and decision support. Second, for the new stations to be deployed, there is no historical data available to help the prediction of their demand. Finally, the impact of deploying/closing stations on the other stations in the system can be complex. To address these challenges, we formulate the demand prediction problem in the context of fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems, and propose a data-driven demand prediction approach which aims to model the expansion dynamics directly from the data. We use a local temporal encoding process to handle the historical data for each existing station, and a dynamic spatial encoding process to take correlations between stations into account with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCN). The encoded features are fed to a multi-scale predictor, which forecasts both the long-term expected demand of the stations and their instant demand in the near future. We evaluate the proposed approach with real-world data collected from a major EV sharing platform for one year. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state of the art, showing up to three-fold performance gain in predicting demand for the expanding EV sharing systems

Towards Generative Modeling of Urban Flow through Knowledge-enhanced Denoising Diffusion

Although generative AI has been successful in many areas, its ability to model geospatial data is still underexplored. Urban flow, a typical kind of geospatial data, is critical for a wide range of urban applications. Existing studies mostly focus on predictive modeling of urban flow that predicts the future flow based on historical flow data, which may be unavailable in data-sparse areas or newly planned regions. Some other studies aim to predict OD flow among regions but they fail to model dynamic changes of urban flow over time. In this work, we study a new problem of urban flow generation that generates dynamic urban flow for regions without historical flow data. To capture the effect of multiple factors on urban flow, such as region features and urban environment, we employ diffusion model to generate urban flow for regions under different conditions. We first construct an urban knowledge graph (UKG) to model the urban environment and relationships between regions, based on which we design a knowledge-enhanced spatio-temporal diffusion model (KSTDiff) to generate urban flow for each region. Specifically, to accurately generate urban flow for regions with different flow volumes, we design a novel diffusion process guided by a volume estimator, which is learnable and customized for each region. Moreover, we propose a knowledge-enhanced denoising network to capture the spatio-temporal dependencies of urban flow as well as the impact of urban environment in the denoising process. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets validate the superiority of our model over state-of-the-art baselines in urban flow generation. Further in-depth studies demonstrate the utility of generated urban flow data and the ability of our model for long-term flow generation and urban flow prediction. Our code is released at: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/KSTDiff-Urban-flow-generation