Outbreak Severity Index: The International Response to the Global Outbreaks

Outbreaks are emergency situations that carry hazards of death, disability, loss of home and property, and variety of other calamities. With technological advancement, not only people and commodities are easy to transfer but also disease outbreaks. However, outbreaks are dealt with by different countries based on the differences in their healthcare systems and their ability to achieve effective control of the outbreak. SARS, MERS, and Ebola are example of such outbreaks that traveled around the globe and successful control was different according to the virulence of outbreak agent and to the effectiveness of local health system control measures. This capstone project proposes an outbreak severity index as an outbreak evaluation tool. The aim of the evaluation tool is to examine the severity of any emerging outbreak and to coordinate prevention and control efforts accordingly both locally and globally. Application of the outbreak severity index of SARS, MERS, and Ebola demonstrates that the score for SARS, MERS, and Ebola are 5.42, 5.36, and 5.0 respectively on a 10.0 points scale. This result indicates that SARS, MERS, and Ebola are moderate severe outbreaks. With this result, public health practitioners have an objective measurement tool to advocate for allocation of resources and for justifying preventive procedures. Validity and reliability are not tested, which would lead to acceptance of this evaluative approach and help in building consensus. Additional studies are needed to assess the proposed outbreak severity index

Pandemic Planning: Estimating Disease Burden of Pandemic Influenza to Guide Preparedness Planning Decisions for Nebraska Medicine

This year marks the 100th anniversary of the 1918 “Spanish Flu” outbreak that killed 50-100 million people worldwide. If a pandemic of this proportion happened today, the federal pandemic influenza plan predicts that 30 percent of the population could become infected with up to 50 percent seeking outpatient care. With Nebraska Medicine currently operating at nearly full capacity (95-97%), surge capacity for hospital space, staff, and supplies would be in severe demand and would quickly overwhelm the organization. To assess the impact of pandemic influenza in Douglas County Nebraska and Nebraska Medicine, pandemic modeling tool FluAid and FluSurge 2.0 were used to project and illustrate the demand for hospital resources during surge events. FluSurge estimates the number of hospital admissions, ICU and ventilator capacity and deaths due to pandemic influenza. Projections are made under variable duration (6, 8, and 12 weeks) and virulence (15%, 25%, and 35 %) scenarios and compares hospital resources needed during pandemic influenza with existing hospital resources. Results indicate during a moderate to severe influenza pandemic, the percentage of Nebraska Medicine’s capacity needed to care for flu patients would double by week 2. Considering the results and disease burden of pandemic influenza on Nebraska Medicine, recommendations for the hospital include topics for discussion and specific preparedness and response actions in order to increase hospital capacity and capabilities for future surge events

Comparison Of SARS-CoV-2 To SARS-CoV, MERS, And Influenza A: A Systematic Review

Differences and similarities are examined among SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, MERS and influenza A, in the context of transmissibility. Characteristics specific to the respective pathogens prove invaluable as they set the stage for intervention and management. SARS-CoV-2 bears similarities to other recently emerged infectious diseases in basic virologic ways, yet is distinctly different in terms of viral transmission dynamics. These differences arise from genomic qualities and properties specific to the virus. As ACE2 receptors are determinants for attachment and spread of the virus, and their role throughout tissues in the body is vast, an understanding of organ-level pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial to effectively treat and (hopefully) neutralize SARS-CoV-2. Certain populations are identified as higher risk populations for severity of illness due to factors including age, gender and obesity. Therapies and treatments (including social responsibility behaviors) are described in current practice.https://dune.une.edu/hi_studpapproj/1001/thumbnail.jp

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Hospital Infection Control Response to an Epidemic Respiratory Virus Threat

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 can be contained with less expensive measures than some other viruses

Systems approaches to coronavirus pathogenesis

Coronaviruses comprise a large group of emergent human and animal pathogens, including the highly pathogenic SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV strains that cause significant morbidity and mortality in infected individuals, especially the elderly. As emergent viruses may cause episodic outbreaks of disease over time, human samples are limited. Systems biology and genetic technologies maximize opportunities for identifying critical host and viral genetic factors that regulate susceptibility and virus-induced disease severity. These approaches provide discovery platforms that highlight and allow targeted confirmation of critical targets for prophylactics and therapeutics, especially critical in an outbreak setting. Although poorly understood, it has long been recognized that host regulation of virus-associated disease severity is multigenic. The advent of systems genetic and biology resources provide new opportunities for deconvoluting the complex genetic interactions and expression networks that regulate pathogenic or protective host response patterns following virus infection. Using SARS-CoV as a model, dynamic transcriptional network changes and disease-associated phenotypes have been identified in different genetic backgrounds, leading to the promise of population-wide discovery of the underpinnings of Coronavirus pathogenesis

Current Perspectives on Viral Disease Outbreaks

The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world that infectious diseases are still important. The last 40 years have experienced the emergence of new or resurging viral diseases such as AIDS, ebola, MERS, SARS, Zika, and others. These diseases display diverse epidemiologies ranging from sexual transmission to vector-borne transmission (or both, in the case of Zika). This book provides an overview of recent developments in the detection, monitoring, treatment, and control of several viral diseases that have caused recent epidemics or pandemics

Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available