Modeling Information Propagation with Survival Theory

Networks provide a skeleton for the spread of contagions, like, information, ideas, behaviors and diseases. Many times networks over which contagions diffuse are unobserved and need to be inferred. Here we apply survival theory to develop general additive and multiplicative risk models under which the network inference problems can be solved efficiently by exploiting their convexity. Our additive risk model generalizes several existing network inference models. We show all these models are particular cases of our more general model. Our multiplicative model allows for modeling scenarios in which a node can either increase or decrease the risk of activation of another node, in contrast with previous approaches, which consider only positive risk increments. We evaluate the performance of our network inference algorithms on large synthetic and real cascade datasets, and show that our models are able to predict the length and duration of cascades in real data.Comment: To appear at ICML '1

Spreading processes in Multilayer Networks

Several systems can be modeled as sets of interconnected networks or networks with multiple types of connections, here generally called multilayer networks. Spreading processes such as information propagation among users of an online social networks, or the diffusion of pathogens among individuals through their contact network, are fundamental phenomena occurring in these networks. However, while information diffusion in single networks has received considerable attention from various disciplines for over a decade, spreading processes in multilayer networks is still a young research area presenting many challenging research issues. In this paper we review the main models, results and applications of multilayer spreading processes and discuss some promising research directions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 4 table

Distributed interaction between computer virus and patch: A modeling study

The decentralized patch distribution mechanism holds significant promise as an alternative to its centralized counterpart. For the purpose of accurately evaluating the performance of the decentralized patch distribution mechanism and based on the exact SIPS model that accurately captures the average dynamics of the interaction between viruses and patches, a new virus-patch interacting model, which is known as the generic SIPS model, is proposed. This model subsumes the linear SIPS model. The dynamics of the generic SIPS model is studied comprehensively. In particular, a set of criteria for the final extinction or/and long-term survival of viruses or/and patches are presented. Some conditions for the linear SIPS model to accurately capture the average dynamics of the virus-patch interaction are empirically found. As a consequence, the linear SIPS model can be adopted as a standard model for assessing the performance of the distributed patch distribution mechanism, provided the proper conditions are satisfied

A time dependent performance model for multihop wireless networks with CBR traffic

In this paper, we develop a performance modeling technique for analyzing the time varying network layer queueing behavior of multihop wireless networks with constant bit rate traffic. Our approach is a hybrid of fluid flow queueing modeling and a time varying connectivity matrix. Network queues are modeled using fluid-flow based differential equation models which are solved using numerical methods, while node mobility is modeled using deterministic or stochastic modeling of adjacency matrix elements. Numerical and simulation experiments show that the new approach can provide reasonably accurate results with significant improvements in the computation time compared to standard simulation tools. © 2010 IEEE

From Micro to Macro: Uncovering and Predicting Information Cascading Process with Behavioral Dynamics

Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomenons (i.e. cascading proceese) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors get infected by a cascade after this node get infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and propose a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure

Neutrino oscillation signatures of oxygen-neon-magnesium supernovae

We discuss the flavor conversion of neutrinos from core collapse supernovae that have oxygen-neon-magnesium (ONeMg) cores. Using the numerically calculated evolution of the star up to 650 ms post bounce, we find that, for the normal mass hierarchy, the electron neutrino flux in a detector shows signatures of two typical features of an ONeMg-core supernova: a sharp step in the density profile at the base of the He shell and a faster shock wave propagation compared to iron core supernovae. Before the shock hits the density step (t ~ 150 ms), the survival probability of electron neutrinos is about 0.68, in contrast to values of 0.32 or less for an iron core supernova. The passage of the shock through the step and its subsequent propagation cause a decrease of the survival probability and a decrease of the amplitude of oscillations in the Earth, reflecting the transition to a more adiabatic propagation inside the star. These changes affect the lower energy neutrinos first; they are faster and more sizable for larger theta_13. They are unique of ONeMg-core supernovae, and give the possibility to test the speed of the shock wave. The time modulation of the Earth effect and its negative sign at the neutronization peak are the most robust signatures in a detector.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures (16 figure files). Text and graphics added for illustration and clarification; Results unchanged. Version accepted for publication in Physical Review