10,428 research outputs found
Are you going to the party: depends, who else is coming? [Learning hidden group dynamics via conditional latent tree models]
Scalable probabilistic modeling and prediction in high dimensional
multivariate time-series is a challenging problem, particularly for systems
with hidden sources of dependence and/or homogeneity. Examples of such problems
include dynamic social networks with co-evolving nodes and edges and dynamic
student learning in online courses. Here, we address these problems through the
discovery of hierarchical latent groups. We introduce a family of Conditional
Latent Tree Models (CLTM), in which tree-structured latent variables
incorporate the unknown groups. The latent tree itself is conditioned on
observed covariates such as seasonality, historical activity, and node
attributes. We propose a statistically efficient framework for learning both
the hierarchical tree structure and the parameters of the CLTM. We demonstrate
competitive performance in multiple real world datasets from different domains.
These include a dataset on students' attempts at answering questions in a
psychology MOOC, Twitter users participating in an emergency management
discussion and interacting with one another, and windsurfers interacting on a
beach in Southern California. In addition, our modeling framework provides
valuable and interpretable information about the hidden group structures and
their effect on the evolution of the time series
Modeling heterogeneity in random graphs through latent space models: a selective review
We present a selective review on probabilistic modeling of heterogeneity in
random graphs. We focus on latent space models and more particularly on
stochastic block models and their extensions that have undergone major
developments in the last five years
A survey of statistical network models
Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for
discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of
network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of
study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation.
Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in
social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an
active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort
moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past
decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and
computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online
networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of
more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in
the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide
the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an
overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then
we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network
literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static
and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal
model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of
parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open
problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.Comment: 96 pages, 14 figures, 333 reference
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