Environmental and Statistical Performance Mapping Model for Underwater Acoustic Detection Systems

This manuscript describes a methodology to combine environmental models, acoustic signal predictions, statistical detection models and operations research to form a framework for calculating and communicating performance. This methodology has been applied to undersea target detection systems and has come to be known as Performance Surface modeling. The term Performance Surface refers to a geo-spatial representation of the predicted performance of one or more sensors constrained by all-source forecasts for a geophysical area of operations. Recent improvements in ocean, atmospheric and underwater acoustic models, along with advances in parallel computing provide an opportunity to forecast the effects of a complex and dynamic acoustic environment on undersea target detection system performance. This manuscript describes a new process that calculates performance in a straight-forward sonar-equation manner utilizing spatially complex and temporally dynamic environmental models. This performance model is constructed by joining environmental acoustic signal predictions with a detection model to form a probabilistic prediction which is then combined with probabilities of target location to produce conditional, joint and marginal probabilities. These joint and marginal probabilities become the scalar estimates of system performance. This manuscript contains two invited articles recently accepted for publication. The first article describes the Performance Surface model development with sections on current applications and future extensions to a more stochastic model. The second article is written from the operational perspective of a Naval commanding officer with co-authors from the active force. Performance Surface tools have been demonstrated at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) and the Naval Oceanographic Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Center (NOAC) in support of recent naval exercises. The model also has recently been a major representation for the performance layer of the Naval Meteorological and Oceanographic Command (NAVMETOCCOM) in its Battlespace on Demand strategy for supporting the Fleet with oceanographic products

Environmental and Statistical Performance Mapping Model for Underwater Acoustic Detection Systems

This manuscript describes a methodology to combine environmental models, acoustic signal predictions, statistical detection models and operations research to form a framework for calculating and communicating performance. This methodology has been applied to undersea target detection systems and has come to be known as Performance Surface modeling. The term Performance Surface refers to a geo-spatial representation of the predicted performance of one or more sensors constrained by all-source forecasts for a geophysical area of operations. Recent improvements in ocean, atmospheric and underwater acoustic models, along with advances in parallel computing provide an opportunity to forecast the effects of a complex and dynamic acoustic environment on undersea target detection system performance. This manuscript describes a new process that calculates performance in a straight-forward sonar-equation manner utilizing spatially complex and temporally dynamic environmental models. This performance model is constructed by joining environmental acoustic signal predictions with a detection model to form a probabilistic prediction which is then combined with probabilities of target location to produce conditional, joint and marginal probabilities. These joint and marginal probabilities become the scalar estimates of system performance. This manuscript contains two invited articles recently accepted for publication. The first article describes the Performance Surface model development with sections on current applications and future extensions to a more stochastic model. The second article is written from the operational perspective of a Naval commanding officer with co-authors from the active force. Performance Surface tools have been demonstrated at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) and the Naval Oceanographic Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Center (NOAC) in support of recent naval exercises. The model also has recently been a major representation for the performance layer of the Naval Meteorological and Oceanographic Command (NAVMETOCCOM) in its Battlespace on Demand strategy for supporting the Fleet with oceanographic products

LEADERSHIP TO ENABLE 21ST-CENTURY TEAMS TO SOLVE ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS

Although contemporary literature overwhelmingly shows that high-performing teams are greater than the sum of their parts, the current Marine Corps manpower model systematically creates ad-hoc teams. Ad-hoc teams are temporary teams, which are formed to accomplish a specific task, in contrast to enduring, cohesive teams, which possess teamwork skills, share mental models, and have refined team processes to successfully accomplish a range of tasks. Due to the changing character of war, ad-hoc teams are tasked to operate in an increasingly complex environment. While manpower model initiatives have begun under Talent Management, the effect and timeline of these initiatives are yet to be seen. This thesis addresses current team challenges by synthesizing cross-discipline scholarly research findings into four recommendations for tactical-level Marine teams. The thesis presents a two-part, decision-forcing case study and teaching note that provides a mechanism to train teams in practical methods to improve team performance. Tactical Marine units cannot afford to wait for structural changes to address team dynamics. The tactical leader should use contemporary scholarly research findings to augment their current team practices to create an environment for high-performing teams to solve the ill-structured problems they will face.Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Considerations for Cross Domain / Mission Resource Allocation and Replanning

NPS NRP Technical ReportNaval platforms are inherently multi-mission - they execute a variety of missions simultaneously. Ships, submarines, and aircraft support multiple missions across domains, such as integrated air and missile defense, ballistic missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, strike operations, naval fires in support of ground operations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Scheduling and position of these multi-mission platforms is problematic since one warfare area commander desires one position and schedule, while another may have a completely different approach. Commanders struggle to decide and adjudicate these conflicts, because there is plenty of uncertainty about the enemy and the environment. This project will explore emerging innovative data analytic technologies to optimize naval resource allocation and replanning across mission domains. NPS proposes a study that will evaluate the following three solution concepts for this application: (1) game theory, (2) machine learning, and (3) wargaming. The study will first identify a set of operational scenarios that involve distributed and diverse naval platforms and resources and a threat situation that requires multiple concurrent missions in multiple domains. The NPS team will use these scenarios to evaluate the three solution concepts and their applicability to supporting resource allocation and replanning. This project will provide valuable insights into innovative data analytic solution concepts to tackle the Navy's challenge of conducing multiple missions with cross-domain resources.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Enhanced cyberspace defense with real-time distributed systems using covert channel publish-subscribe broker pattern communications

In this thesis, we propose a novel cyberspace defense solution to the growing sophistication of threats facing networks within the Department of Defense. Current network defense strategies, including traditional intrusion detection and firewall-based perimeter defenses, are ineffective against increasingly sophisticated social engineering attacks such as spear-phishing which exploit individuals with targeted information. These asymmetric attacks are able to bypass current network defense technologies allowing adversaries extended and often unrestricted access to portions of the enterprise. Network defense strategies are hampered by solutions favoring network-centric designs which disregard the security requirements of the specific data and information on the networks. Our solution leverages specific technology characteristics from traditional network defense systems and real-time distributed systems using publish-subscribe broker patterns to form the foundation of a full-spectrum cyber operations capability. Building on this foundation, we present the addition of covert channel communications within the distributed systems framework to protect sensitive Command and Control and Battle Management messaging from adversary intercept and exploitation. Through this combined approach, DoD and Service network defense professionals will be able to meet sophisticated cyberspace threats head-on while simultaneously protecting the data and information critical to warfighting Commands, Services and Agencies.http://archive.org/details/enhancedcyberspa109454049US Air Force (USAF) author.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-ENABLED MULTI-MISSION RESOURCE ALLOCATION TACTICAL DECISION AID

The Department of Defense supports many military platforms that execute multiple missions simultaneously. Platforms such as watercraft, aircraft, and land convoys support multiple missions over domains such as air and missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, strike operations, fires in support of ground operations, intelligence sensing and reconnaissance. However, major challenges to the human decision-maker exist in allocating these multi-mission resources such as the growth in battle-tempo, scale, and complexity of available platforms. This capstone study seeks to apply systems engineering to analyze the multi-mission resource allocation (MMRA) problem set to further enable artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning tools to aid human decision-makers for initial and dynamic re-planning. To approach this problem, the study characterizes inputs and outputs of a potential MMRA process, then analyzes the scalability and complexity across three unique use cases: directed energy convoy protection, aviation support, and a carrier strike group. The critical findings of these diverse use cases were then assessed for similarities and differences to further understand commonalities for a joint AI-enabled MMRA tool.Civilian, Department of the ArmyCivilian, Department of the ArmyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Research Naval Postgraduate School, v.13, no.1, February 2003

NPS Research is published by the Research and Sponsored Programs, Office of the Vice President and Dean of Research, in accordance with NAVSOP-35. Views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of the Navy.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Changing DoD’s Analysis Paradigm

War gaming and military modeling have a well documented history covering over two centuries, a period that coincides with the inception and evolution of formal professional development for military officers. The term war game used here refers to “a warfare model or simulation that does not involve the operations of actual forces, in which the flow of events affects and is affected by decisions made during the course of those events by players representing opposing sides.