Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due to the fact that they do not fully consider the dependencies between the constituents of an IT infrastructure that are paramount in large enterprises. These dependencies make the technical problem of assessing availability issues very challenging. In this paper we define a method and a tool for carrying out a Risk Mitigation activity which allows to assess the global impact of a set of risks and to choose the best set of countermeasures to cope with them. To this end, the presence of a tool is necessary due to the high complexity of the assessment problem. Our approach can be integrated in present Risk Management methodologies (e.g. COBIT) to provide a more precise Risk Mitigation activity. We substantiate the viability of this approach by showing that most of the input required by the tool is available as part of a standard business continuity plan, and/or by performing a common tool-assisted Risk Management

Optimal wildfire insurance in the wildland-urban interface in the presence of a government subsidy for fire risk mitigation

We investigate the effectiveness of a government subsidy and mitigation based insurance contracts at discouraging migration into the wildland interface and at inducing incentives for risk mitigation. We construct a model of the individual migration decision, where the individual maximizes expected utility defined over attributes of locations including cost of insurance and mitigation, wildfire damage, and the availability of a subsidy for reducing wildfire risks through fuel management. Our analysis shows that standard insurance policies provide inefficiently weak incentive for wildfire risk mitigation by offering a low insurance premium to high-risk landowners. We find on the other hand that in the presence of optimal government subsidy, contingent contracts provide an efficient solution where a homeowner chooses a mitigation level that maximizes social benefit and insurers provide actuarially fair contracts such that each individual is offered a premium of the exact value of her wildfire risk.Insurance; Insurance Companies, Government Policy and Regulation, General, Government Policy

Risk Assessment and Mitigation Model for Overseas Steel-Plant Project Investment with Analytic Hierarchy ProcessFuzzy Inference System

This paper presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy inference system (FIS) model to aid decision-makers in the risk assessment and mitigation of overseas steel-plant projects. Through a thorough literature review, the authors identified 57 risks associated with international steel construction, operation, and transference of new technologies. Pairwise comparisons of all 57 risks by 14 subject-matter experts resulted in a relative weighting. Furthermore, to mitigate human subjectivity, vagueness, and uncertainty, a fuzzy analysis based on the findings of two case studies was performed. From these combined analyses, weighted individual risk soring resulted in the following top five most impactful international steel project risks: procurement of raw materials; design errors and omissions; conditions of raw materials; technology spill prevention plan; investment cost and poor plant availability and performance. Risk mitigation measures are also presented, and risk scores are re-assessed through the AHP-FIS analysis model depicting an overall project risk score reduction. The model presented is a useful tool for industry performing steel project risk assessments. It also provides decision-makers with a better understanding of the criticality of risks that are likely to occur on international steel projects.11sciessciscopu

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts

Leveraging private capital for climate mitigation: evidence from the clean development mechanism

To mitigate climate change, states must make significant investments into energy and other sectors. To solve this problem, scholars emphasize the importance of leveraging private capital. If states create institutional mechanisms that promote private investment, they can reduce the fiscal cost of carbon abatement. We examine the ability of different international institutional designs to leverage private capital in the context of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Empirically, we analyze private capital investment in 3749 climate mitigation projects under the CDM, 2003–2011. Since the CDM allows both bilateral and unilateral implementation, we can compare the two modes of contracting within one context. Our model analyzes equilibrium private investment in climate mitigation. When the cost of mitigation is high, unilateral project implementation in one host country, without foreign collaboration, draws more investment than bilateral contracting, whereby foreign investors participate in the project

Architecture-based Qualitative Risk Analysis for Availability of IT Infrastructures

An IT risk assessment must deliver the best possible quality of results in a time-effective way. Organisations are used to customise the general-purpose standard risk assessment methods in a way that can satisfy their requirements. In this paper we present the QualTD Model and method, which is meant to be employed together with standard risk assessment methods for the qualitative assessment of availability risks of IT architectures, or parts of them. The QualTD Model is based on our previous quantitative model, but geared to industrial practice since it does not require quantitative data which is often too costly to acquire. We validate the model and method in a real-world case by performing a risk assessment on the authentication and authorisation system of a large multinational company and by evaluating the results w.r.t. the goals of the stakeholders of the system. We also perform a review of the most popular standard risk assessment methods and an analysis of which one can be actually integrated with our QualTD Model

A Risk-Based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

This brief examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this brief can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm

Involving External Stakeholders in Project Courses

Problem: The involvement of external stakeholders in capstone projects and project courses is desirable due to its potential positive effects on the students. Capstone projects particularly profit from the inclusion of an industrial partner to make the project relevant and help students acquire professional skills. In addition, an increasing push towards education that is aligned with industry and incorporates industrial partners can be observed. However, the involvement of external stakeholders in teaching moments can create friction and could, in the worst case, lead to frustration of all involved parties. Contribution: We developed a model that allows analysing the involvement of external stakeholders in university courses both in a retrospective fashion, to gain insights from past course instances, and in a constructive fashion, to plan the involvement of external stakeholders. Key Concepts: The conceptual model and the accompanying guideline guide the teachers in their analysis of stakeholder involvement. The model is comprised of several activities (define, execute, and evaluate the collaboration). The guideline provides questions that the teachers should answer for each of these activities. In the constructive use, the model allows teachers to define an action plan based on an analysis of potential stakeholders and the pedagogical objectives. In the retrospective use, the model allows teachers to identify issues that appeared during the project and their underlying causes. Drawing from ideas of the reflective practitioner, the model contains an emphasis on reflection and interpretation of the observations made by the teacher and other groups involved in the courses. Key Lessons: Applying the model retrospectively to a total of eight courses shows that it is possible to reveal hitherto implicit risks and assumptions and to gain a better insight into the interaction...Comment: Abstract shortened since arxiv.org limits length of abstracts. See paper/pdf for full abstract. Paper is forthcoming, accepted August 2017. Arxiv version 2 corrects misspelled author nam

Creating a climate for food security: the business, people & landscapes in food production

AbstractBalancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. Balancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. The triple-bottom-line provided a comprehensive means of addressing social, economic and ecological requirements, and the modelling showed the interacting dynamics between these dimensions. In response to climate change, the agricultural sector must now optimise practices to address the interaction between economic, social and environmental investment. Differences in positions between the industry sector, the government and research sectors demonstrate the need for closer relationships between industry and government if climate change interventions are to be effectively targeted. Modelling shows that capacity for adaptation has a significant bearing on the success of implementing intervention strategies. Without intervention strategies to build viability and support, farm businesses are more likely to fail as a consequence of climate change. A framework of capitals that includes social components - cultural, human and social capital-, economic components -economic and physical capital - and ecological components -ecological and environmental capital - should be applied to address capacities. A priority assessment of climate change intervention strategies shows that strategies categorised as ‘Technology & Extension’ are most important in minimising risk from climate change impacts. To implement interventions to achieve ‘Food Business Resilience’, ‘Business Development’ strategies and alternative business models are most effective. ‘Research and Development’ interventions are essential to achieve enhanced ‘Adaptive Capacity’.The individual components of TBL Adaptive Capacity can be achieved through ‘Policy and Governance’ interventions for building ‘Social Capital’ capacity, ‘Research and Development’ will develop ‘Economic Capital’, and ‘Business Development’ strategies will build ‘Ecological Capital’.These strategic interventions will promote food security and maintain resilience in local food systems, agricultural production communities and markets, global industrial systems, and developing world food systems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions reflect a rich conceptualisation drawing from the Australian context, but also acknowledging the moral context of global association.Please cite this report as:Wardell-Johnson, A, Uddin, N, Islam, N, Nath, T, Stockwell, B, Slade, C 2013 Creating a climate for food security: the businesses, people and landscapes in food production, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 144.Balancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. The triple-bottom-line provided a comprehensive means of addressing social, economic and ecological requirements, and the modelling showed the interacting dynamics between these dimensions. In response to climate change, the agricultural sector must now optimise practices to address the interaction between economic, social and environmental investment. Differences in positions between the industry sector, the government and research sectors demonstrate the need for closer relationships between industry and government if climate change interventions are to be effectively targeted. Modelling shows that capacity for adaptation has a significant bearing on the success of implementing intervention strategies. Without intervention strategies to build viability and support, farm businesses are more likely to fail as a consequence of climate change. A framework of capitals that includes social components - cultural, human and social capital-, economic components -economic and physical capital - and ecological components -ecological and environmental capital - should be applied to address capacities. A priority assessment of climate change intervention strategies shows that strategies categorised as ‘Technology & Extension’ are most important in minimising risk from climate change impacts. To implement interventions to achieve ‘Food Business Resilience’, ‘Business Development’ strategies and alternative business models are most effective. ‘Research and Development’ interventions are essential to achieve enhanced ‘Adaptive Capacity’.The individual components of TBL Adaptive Capacity can be achieved through ‘Policy and Governance’ interventions for building ‘Social Capital’ capacity, ‘Research and Development’ will develop ‘Economic Capital’, and ‘Business Development’ strategies will build ‘Ecological Capital’.These strategic interventions will promote food security and maintain resilience in local food systems, agricultural production communities and markets, global industrial systems, and developing world food systems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions reflect a rich conceptualisation drawing from the Australian context, but also acknowledging the moral context of global association