Reliable ABC model choice via random forests

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with random forests and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the predicted MAP for a second stage also relying on random forests. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC random forest approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least fifty), and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to random forests will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. The proposed methodologies are implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN.Comment: 39 pages, 15 figures, 6 table

Recommending with an Agenda: Active Learning of Private Attributes using Matrix Factorization

Recommender systems leverage user demographic information, such as age, gender, etc., to personalize recommendations and better place their targeted ads. Oftentimes, users do not volunteer this information due to privacy concerns, or due to a lack of initiative in filling out their online profiles. We illustrate a new threat in which a recommender learns private attributes of users who do not voluntarily disclose them. We design both passive and active attacks that solicit ratings for strategically selected items, and could thus be used by a recommender system to pursue this hidden agenda. Our methods are based on a novel usage of Bayesian matrix factorization in an active learning setting. Evaluations on multiple datasets illustrate that such attacks are indeed feasible and use significantly fewer rated items than static inference methods. Importantly, they succeed without sacrificing the quality of recommendations to users.Comment: This is the extended version of a paper that appeared in ACM RecSys 201

On the consistency of Multithreshold Entropy Linear Classifier

Multithreshold Entropy Linear Classifier (MELC) is a recent classifier idea which employs information theoretic concept in order to create a multithreshold maximum margin model. In this paper we analyze its consistency over multithreshold linear models and show that its objective function upper bounds the amount of misclassified points in a similar manner like hinge loss does in support vector machines. For further confirmation we also conduct some numerical experiments on five datasets.Comment: Presented at Theoretical Foundations of Machine Learning 2015 (http://tfml.gmum.net), final version published in Schedae Informaticae Journa

PAC-Bayes and Domain Adaptation

We provide two main contributions in PAC-Bayesian theory for domain adaptation where the objective is to learn, from a source distribution, a well-performing majority vote on a different, but related, target distribution. Firstly, we propose an improvement of the previous approach we proposed in Germain et al. (2013), which relies on a novel distribution pseudodistance based on a disagreement averaging, allowing us to derive a new tighter domain adaptation bound for the target risk. While this bound stands in the spirit of common domain adaptation works, we derive a second bound (introduced in Germain et al., 2016) that brings a new perspective on domain adaptation by deriving an upper bound on the target risk where the distributions' divergence-expressed as a ratio-controls the trade-off between a source error measure and the target voters' disagreement. We discuss and compare both results, from which we obtain PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Furthermore, from the PAC-Bayesian specialization to linear classifiers, we infer two learning algorithms, and we evaluate them on real data.Comment: Neurocomputing, Elsevier, 2019. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1503.0694