Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario

A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in carbon dioxide storage and beyond

Intrinsic Motivation and Mental Replay enable Efficient Online Adaptation in Stochastic Recurrent Networks

Autonomous robots need to interact with unknown, unstructured and changing environments, constantly facing novel challenges. Therefore, continuous online adaptation for lifelong-learning and the need of sample-efficient mechanisms to adapt to changes in the environment, the constraints, the tasks, or the robot itself are crucial. In this work, we propose a novel framework for probabilistic online motion planning with online adaptation based on a bio-inspired stochastic recurrent neural network. By using learning signals which mimic the intrinsic motivation signalcognitive dissonance in addition with a mental replay strategy to intensify experiences, the stochastic recurrent network can learn from few physical interactions and adapts to novel environments in seconds. We evaluate our online planning and adaptation framework on an anthropomorphic KUKA LWR arm. The rapid online adaptation is shown by learning unknown workspace constraints sample-efficiently from few physical interactions while following given way points.Comment: accepted in Neural Network

Control optimization, stabilization and computer algorithms for space applications

Research of control optimization, stochastic stability, and air traffic control problem