999 research outputs found
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Model reduction based on regional pole and covariance equivalentrealizations
Copyright [1999] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.In this paper a novel model reduction problem is studied for linear continuous-time time-invariant stochastic systems. The purpose of this problem is to design the reduced-order model so that it has the same dominant pole region and steady state output covariance as those of the original full-order model. The resulting reduced-order model can approximate the corresponding original full-order model in two important aspects, i.e., transient and steady state performances. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of desired reduced-order models are established, and an explicit expression for these reduced order model is also presented. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed design metho
Global emissions of refrigerants HCFC-22 and HFC-134a: Unforeseen seasonal contributions
HCFC-22 (CHClF[subscript 2]) and HFC-134a (CH[subscript 2]FCF[subscript 3]) are two major gases currently used worldwide in domestic and commercial refrigeration and air conditioning. HCFC-22 contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion, and both species are potent greenhouse gases. In this work, we study in situ observations of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a taken from research aircraft over the Pacific Ocean in a 3-y span [HIaper-Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) 2009–2011] and combine these data with long-term ground observations from global surface sites [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) networks]. We find the global annual emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a have increased substantially over the past two decades. Emissions of HFC-134a are consistently higher compared with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) inventory since 2000, by 60% more in recent years (2009–2012). Apart from these decadal emission constraints, we also quantify recent seasonal emission patterns showing that summertime emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are two to three times higher than wintertime emissions. This unforeseen large seasonal variation indicates that unaccounted mechanisms controlling refrigerant gas emissions are missing in the existing inventory estimates. Possible mechanisms enhancing refrigerant losses in summer are (i) higher vapor pressure in the sealed compartment of the system at summer high temperatures and (ii) more frequent use and service of refrigerators and air conditioners in summer months. Our results suggest that engineering (e.g., better temperature/vibration-resistant system sealing and new system design of more compact/efficient components) and regulatory (e.g., reinforcing system service regulations) steps to improve containment of these gases from working devices could effectively reduce their release to the atmosphere
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How tropical Pacific surface cooling contributed to accelerated sea ice melt from 2007 to 2012 as ice is thinned by anthropogenic forcing
Over the past 40 years the Arctic sea ice minimum in September has declined. The period between 2007 and 2012 showed accelerated melt contributed to the record minima of 2007 and 2012. Here, observational and model evidence shows that the changes in summer sea ice since the 2000s reflects a continuous anthropogenically forced melting masked by interdecadal variability of Arctic atmospheric circulation. This variation is partially driven by teleconnections originating from sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the east-central tropical Pacific via a Rossby wave train propagating into the Arctic (hereafter referred to as the “Pacific-Arctic teleconnection (PARC)”), which represents the leading internal mode connecting the pole to lower latitudes. This mode has contributed to accelerated warming and Arctic sea ice loss from 2007 to 2012, followed by slower declines in recent years, resulting in the appearance of a slowdown over the past 11 years. A pacemaker model simulation, in which we specify observed SST in the tropical eastern Pacific, demonstrates a physically plausible mechanism for the PARC mode. However, the model-based PARC mechanism is considerably weaker and only partially accounts for the observed acceleration of sea ice loss from 2007 to 2012. We also explore features of large-scale circulation patterns associated with extreme melting periods in a long (1800-yr) CESM preindustrial simulation. These results further support the role of remote SST forcing originating from the tropical Pacific in exciting significant warm episodes in the Arctic. However, further research is needed to identify the reasons for model limitations in reproducing the observed PARC mode featuring a Cold Pacific - Warm Arctic connection
Estimation and control of non-linear and hybrid systems with applications to air-to-air guidance
Issued as Progress report, and Final report, Project no. E-21-67
Assessing the Impact of Different Ocean Analysis Schemes on Oceanic and Underwater Acoustic Predictions
Assimilating oceanic observations into prediction systems is an advantageous approach for real-time ocean environment characterization. However, its benefits to underwater acoustic predictions are not trivial due to the nonlinearity and sensitivity of underwater acoustic propagation to small-scale oceanic features. In order to assess the potential of oceanic data assimilation, integrated ocean-acoustic Observing System Simulation Experiments are conducted. Synthetic altimetry and in situ data were assimilated through a variational oceanographic data assimilation system. The predicted sound speed fields are then ingested in a range-dependent acoustic model for transmission loss (TL) predictions. The predicted TLs are analyzed for the purpose of (i) evaluating the contributions of different sources to the uncertainties of oceanic and acoustic forecasts and (ii) comparing the impact of different oceanic analysis schemes on the TL prediction accuracy. Using ensemble member clustering techniques, the contributions of boundary conditions, ocean parameterizations, and geoacoustic characterization to acoustic prediction uncertainties are addressed. Subsequently, the impact of three-dimensional variational (3DVAR), 4DVAR, and hybrid ensemble-3DVAR data assimilation on acoustic TL prediction at two signal frequencies (75 and 2,500 Hz) and different ranges (30 and 60 km) are compared. 3DVAR significantly improves the predicted TL accuracy compared to the control run. Promisingly, 4DVAR and hybrid data assimilation further improve the TL forecasts, the hybrid scheme achieving the highest skill scores for all cases, while being the most computationally intensive scheme. The optimal scheme choice thus depends on requirements on the accuracy and computational constraints. These findings foster developments of coupled data assimilation for operational underwater acoustic propagation
Satellite observations of mesoscale eddy-induced Ekman pumping
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 104–132, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0032.1.Three mechanisms for self-induced Ekman pumping in the interiors of mesoscale ocean eddies are investigated. The first arises from the surface stress that occurs because of differences between surface wind and ocean velocities, resulting in Ekman upwelling and downwelling in the cores of anticyclones and cyclones, respectively. The second mechanism arises from the interaction of the surface stress with the surface current vorticity gradient, resulting in dipoles of Ekman upwelling and downwelling. The third mechanism arises from eddy-induced spatial variability of sea surface temperature (SST), which generates a curl of the stress and therefore Ekman pumping in regions of crosswind SST gradients. The spatial structures and relative magnitudes of the three contributions to eddy-induced Ekman pumping are investigated by collocating satellite-based measurements of SST, geostrophic velocity, and surface winds to the interiors of eddies identified from their sea surface height signatures. On average, eddy-induced Ekman pumping velocities approach O(10) cm day−1. SST-induced Ekman pumping is usually secondary to the two current-induced mechanisms for Ekman pumping. Notable exceptions are the midlatitude extensions of western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, where SST gradients are strong and all three mechanisms for eddy-induced Ekman pumping are comparable in magnitude. Because the polarity of current-induced curl of the surface stress opposes that of the eddy, the associated Ekman pumping attenuates the eddies. The decay time scale of this attenuation is proportional to the vertical scale of the eddy and inversely proportional to the wind speed. For typical values of these parameters, the decay time scale is about 1.3 yr.This work was funded by NASA Grants NNX08AI80G, NNX08AR37G, NNX13AD78G, NNX10AE91G, NNX13AE47G, and NNX10AO98G.2015-07-0
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