Agent based modelling and simulation: An examination of customer retention in the UK mobile market

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Customer retention is an important issue for any business, especially in mature markets such as the UK mobile market where new customers can only be acquired from competitors. Different methods and techniques have been used to investigate customer retention including statistical methods and data mining. However, due to the increasing complexity of the mobile market, the effectiveness of these techniques is questionable. This study proposes Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) as a novel approach to investigate customer retention. ABMS is an emerging means of simulating behaviour and examining behavioural consequences. In outline, agents represent customers and agent relationships represent processes of agent interaction. This study follows the design science paradigm to build and evaluate a generic, reusable, agent-based (CubSim) model to examine the factors affecting customer retention based on data extracted from a UK mobile operator. Based on these data, two data mining models are built to gain a better understanding of the problem domain and to identify the main limitations of data mining. This is followed by two interrelated development cycles: (1) Build the CubSim model, starting with modelling customer interaction with the market, including interaction with the service provider and other competing operators in the market; and (2) Extend the CubSim model by incorporating interaction among customers. The key contribution of this study lies in using ABMS to identify and model the key factors that affect customer retention simultaneously and jointly. In this manner, the CubSim model is better suited to account for the dynamics of customer churn behaviour in the UK mobile market than all other existing models. Another important contribution of this study is that it provides an empirical, actionable insight on customer retention. In particular, and most interestingly, the experimental results show that applying a mixed customer retention strategy targeting both high value customers and customers with a large personal network outperforms the traditional customer retention strategies, which focuses only on the customer‘s value.This work is funded by the Brunel Department of Information Systems and Computing (DISC

A model of the dynamics of organizational communication

We propose a model of the dynamics of organizational communication. Our model specifies the mechanics by which communication impact is fed back to communication inputs and closes the gap between sender and receiver of messages. We draw on language critique, a branch of language philosophy, and derive joint linguistic actions of interlocutors to explain the emergence and adaptation of communication on the group level. The model is framed by Te'eni's cognitive-affective model of organizational communication

Flexible Global Software Development (GSD): Antecedents of Success in Requirements Analysis

Globalization of software development has resulted in a rapid shift away from the traditional collocated, on-site development model, to the offshoring model. Emerging trends indicate an increasing interest in offshoring even in early phases like requirements analysis. Additionally, the flexibility offered by the agile development approach makes it attractive for adaptation in globally distributed software work. A question of significance then is what impacts the success of offshoring earlier phases, like requirements analysis, in a flexible and globally distributed environment? This article incorporates the stance of control theory to posit a research model that examines antecedent factors such as requirements change, facilitation by vendor and client site-coordinators, control, and computer-mediated communication. The impact of these factors on success of requirements analysis projects in a “flexible” global setting is tested using two quasi-experiments involving students from Management Development Institute, India and Marquette University, USA. Results indicate that formal modes of control significantly influence project success during requirements analysis. Further, facilitation by both client and vendor site coordinators positively impacts requirements analysis success

Designing IS service strategy: an information acceleration approach

Information technology-based innovation involves considerable risk that requires insight and foresight. Yet, our understanding of how managers develop the insight to support new breakthrough applications is limited and remains obscured by high levels of technical and market uncertainty. This paper applies a new experimental method based on “discrete choice analysis” and “information acceleration” to directly examine how decisions are made in a way that is behaviourally sound. The method is highly applicable to information systems researchers because it provides relative importance measures on a common scale, greater control over alternate explanations and stronger evidence of causality. The practical implications are that information acceleration reduces the levels of uncertainty and generates a more accurate rationale for IS service strategy decisions

Understanding Behavioral Sources of Process Variation Following Enterprise System Deployment

This paper extends the current understanding of the time-sensitivity of intent and usage following large-scale IT implementation. Our study focuses on perceived system misfit with organizational processes in tandem with the availability of system circumvention opportunities. Case study comparisons and controlled experiments are used to support the theoretical unpacking of organizational and technical contingencies and their relationship to shifts in user intentions and variation in work-processing tactics over time. Findings suggest that managers and users may retain strong intentions to circumvent systems in the presence of perceived task-technology misfit. The perceived ease with which this circumvention is attainable factors significantly into the timeframe within which it is attempted, and subsequently impacts the onset of deviation from prescribed practice and anticipated dynamics

Fundamental concepts in management research and ensuring research quality : focusing on case study method

This paper discusses fundamental concepts in management research and ensuring research quality. It was presented at the European Academy of Management annual conference in 2008