13,749 research outputs found
Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach
As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger
flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains
challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to
varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity
propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear
simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based
intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each
cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally,
the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model
is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate
that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and
mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable
cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach
Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the
on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from
over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal
dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously,
however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We
propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional
long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences
within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by
multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM
layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and
the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the
spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A
tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance
of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection.
The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger
demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China.
Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing,
show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional
approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural
network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper
is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of
an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal
correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure
Anticipating and Coordinating Voltage Control for Interconnected Power Systems
This paper deals with the application of an anticipating and coordinating feedback control scheme in order to mitigate the long-term voltage instability of multi-area power systems. Each local area is uniquely controlled by a control agent (CA) selecting control values based on model predictive control (MPC) and is possibly operated by an independent transmission system operator (TSO). Each MPC-based CA only knows a detailed local hybrid system model of its own area, employing reduced-order quasi steady-state (QSS) hybrid models of its neighboring areas and even simpler PV models for remote areas, to anticipate (and then optimize) the future behavior of its own area. Moreover, the neighboring CAs agree on communicating their planned future control input sequence in order to coordinate their own control actions. The feasibility of the proposed method for real-time applications is explained, and some practical implementation issues are also discussed. The performance of the method, using time-domain simulation of the Nordic32 test system, is compared with the uncoordinated decentralized MPC (no information exchange among CAs), demonstrating the improved behavior achieved by combining anticipation and coordination. The robustness of the control scheme against modeling uncertainties is also illustrated
A Hybrid Approach Based on Variational Mode Decomposition for Analyzing and Predicting Urban Travel Speed
Predicting travel speeds on urban road networks is a challenging subject due to its uncertainty stemming from travel demand, geometric condition, traffic signals, and other exogenous factors. This uncertainty appears as nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and volatility in traffic data, and it also creates a spatiotemporal heterogeneity of link travel speed by interacting with neighbor links. In this study, we propose a hybrid model using variational mode decomposition (VMD) to investigate and mitigate the uncertainty of urban travel speeds. The VMD allows the travel speed data to be divided into orthogonal and oscillatory sub-signals, called modes. The regular components are extracted as the low-frequency modes, and the irregular components presenting uncertainty are transformed into a combination of modes, which is more predictable than the original uncertainty. For the prediction, the VMD decomposes the travel speed data into modes, and these modes are predicted and summed to represent the predicted travel speed. The evaluation results on urban road networks show that, the proposed hybrid model outperforms the benchmark models both in the congested and in the overall conditions. The improvement in performance increases significantly over specific link-days, which generally are hard to predict. To explain the significant variance of the prediction performance according to each link and each day, the correlation analysis between the properties of modes and the performance of the model are conducted. The results on correlation analysis show that the more variance of nondaily pattern is explained through the modes, the easier it was to predict the speed. Based on the results, discussions on the interpretation on the correlation analysis and future research are presented.
Document type: Articl
Parallelized Particle and Gaussian Sum Particle Filters for Large Scale Freeway Traffic Systems
Large scale traffic systems require techniques able to: 1) deal with high amounts of data and heterogenous data coming from different types of sensors, 2) provide robustness in the presence of sparse sensor data, 3) incorporate different models that can deal with various traffic regimes, 4) cope with multimodal conditional probability density functions for the states. Often centralized architectures face challenges due to high communication demands. This paper develops new estimation techniques able to cope with these problems of large traffic network systems. These are Parallelized Particle Filters (PPFs) and a Parallelized Gaussian Sum Particle Filter (PGSPF) that are suitable for on-line traffic management. We show how complex probability density functions of the high dimensional trafc state can be decomposed into functions with simpler forms and the whole estimation problem solved in an efcient way. The proposed approach is general, with limited interactions which reduces the computational time and provides high estimation accuracy. The efciency of the PPFs and PGSPFs is evaluated in terms of accuracy, complexity and communication demands and compared with the case where all processing is centralized
A Slow-Shifting Concerned Machine Learning Method for Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting
The ability to predict traffic flow over time for crowded areas during rush
hours is increasingly important as it can help authorities make informed
decisions for congestion mitigation or scheduling of infrastructure development
in an area. However, a crucial challenge in traffic flow forecasting is the
slow shifting in temporal peaks between daily and weekly cycles, resulting in
the nonstationarity of the traffic flow signal and leading to difficulty in
accurate forecasting. To address this challenge, we propose a slow shifting
concerned machine learning method for traffic flow forecasting, which includes
two parts. First, we take advantage of Empirical Mode Decomposition as the
feature engineering to alleviate the nonstationarity of traffic flow data,
yielding a series of stationary components. Second, due to the superiority of
Long-Short-Term-Memory networks in capturing temporal features, an advanced
traffic flow forecasting model is developed by taking the stationary components
as inputs. Finally, we apply this method on a benchmark of real-world data and
provide a comparison with other existing methods. Our proposed method
outperforms the state-of-art results by 14.55% and 62.56% using the metrics of
root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, respectively.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for IEEE International Conference on
Smart Mobility 2023 (IEEE SM'23
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