Long-term penetration and traffic forecasts for the Western European fixed broadband market

The objective with the paper is to describe, analyze and forecast the future fixed broadband penetration and traffic growth in NGN and NGA networks in Western Europe - one of the most advanced telecommunications areas in the world. Analyses show that the broadband penetrations are very well fitted by Logistic models. Here, extended Logistic four parameter models are used to develop broadband penetration forecasts 2011 - 2015. Separate forecasts are developed for DSL, HFC(Hybrid Fiber Coax), FTTx and FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) The traffic forecasts are developed per user in the busy hour. Hence, it is possible to assess the future fixed broadband busy hour traffic in NGA networks and also the accumulated busy hour traffic in NGN networks taking into account the fixed broadband penetration forecasts. --Fixed broadband,NGA,NGN,long-term forecasts,penetration,traffic

The Mobile Broadband and Fixed Broadband Battle in Swedish market: Exploring complementary or substitution

The mobile broadband (MBB) in Swedish market has become a more attractive opportunity for service providers, with growing demand for ubiquitous broadband connectivity after the mobile operators got 3G license in 2000. MBB seems to have more advantage compare to Fixed broadband (FBB) in term of mobility, compatibility and quality of service. This paper aims to explore the current broadband situation in Swedish market, in particular whether the mobile broadband is a complementary or substitute by using descriptive analysis. The data is collected from the Post- och telestyrelsen (PTS) Survey and the secondary data from PTS during 2002-2009. The findings indicate that the MBB and FBB subscribers remain growing, but the issue of complementary and substitution between MBB and FBB cannot be given an answer at this stage. The crucial problem of comparing MBB and FBB is the different units of measurement. Also, the potential of avoiding regulation by service providers is discussed since the market participants in FBB and MBB services are the same players. The rapid growth of MBB together with a lower degree of regulation in mobile services may attract the market player to put their effort more in MBB market. Moreover, the gap between broadband infrastructure coverage and the usage of this service is huge. Thus, the inefficiency of BB infrastructure utilization becomes another issue that NRAs could consider. --Mobile broadband,Fixed broadband,Complementary,Substitution

Statistical Information of the Increased Demand for Watch the VOD with the Increased Sophistication in the Mobile Devices,Communications and Internet Penetration in Asia

As the rapid progress of the media streaming applications such as video streaming can be classified into two types of streaming, Live video streaming, Video on Demand (VoD). Live video streaming is a service which allows the clients to watch many TV channels over the internet and the clients able to use one operation to perform is to switch the channels. Video on Demand (VoD) is one of the most important applications for the internet of the future and has become an interactive multimedia service which allows the users to start watching the video of their choice at anytime and anywhere, especially after the rapid deployment of the wireless networks and mobile devices. In this paper provide statistical information about the Internet, communications and mobile devices etc. This has led to an increased demand for the development, communication and computational powers of many of the mobile wireless subscribers/mobile devices such as laptops, PDAs, smart phones and notebook. These techniques are utilized to obtain a video on demand service with higher resolution and quality. Another objective in this paper is to see Malaysia ranked as a fully developed country by the year 2020.Comment: 17 pages, 17 figures, 4 tables; The International Journal of Multimedia & Its Applications (IJMA) Vol.3, No.4, November 201

European leadership in 5G. CEPS Special Report, December 2016

Prepared by Policy Department A at the request of the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE), this report examines the concept for 5G, how it might fit in the future telecommunications landscape, the state of play in R&D in the EU and globally, the possible business models and the role of standards and spectrum policy, to assess the EU’s strategic position

WiFi Hot Spot Service Business for the Automotive and Oil Industries: A Competitive Analysis

While you refuel for gas, why not refuel for information or upload vehicle data, using a cheap wireless technology as WiFi? This paper analyzes in extensive detail the user segmentation by vehicle usage, service offering, and full business models from WiFi hot spot services delivered to and from vehicles (private, professional, public) around gas stations. Are also analyzed the parties which play a role in such services: authorization, provisioning and delivery, with all the dependencies modelled by attributed digraphs. Account is made of WiFi base station technical capabilities and costs. Five year financial models (CAPEX, OPEX), and data pertain to two possible service suppliers: multi-service oil companies, and mobile service operators (or MVNOs). Model optimization on the return-on-investment (R.O.I.) is carried out for different deployment scenarios, geographical coverage assumptions, as well as tariff structures. Comparison is also being made with public GPRS and 3G data services, as precursors to HSPA/LTE, and the effect of WiFi roaming is analyzed. Regulatory implications, including those dealing with public safety, are addressed. Analysis shows that due to manpower costs and marketing costs, suitable R.O.I. will not be achieved unless externalities are accounted for and innovative tariff structures are introduced. Open issues and further research are outlined. Further work is currently carried out with automotive electronics sector, wireless systems providers, wireless terminals platform suppliers, and vehicle manufacturers. Future relevance of this work is also discussed for the emerging electrical reloading grids for electrical vehicles.WiFi, Fuel Stations, Business Models, Oil Company, Mobile Operator, WiFi Services, Regulations, Professional Vehicles

Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.Edward Oughton, Zoraida Frias, Tom Russell and David Cleevely would like to express their gratitude to the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council for funding via grant EP/N017064/1: Multi-scale InfraSTRucture systems AnaLytics (Mistral). Zoraida Frias would like to thank the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid for their support through the mobility program scholarship

Hybrid Satellite-Terrestrial Communication Networks for the Maritime Internet of Things: Key Technologies, Opportunities, and Challenges

With the rapid development of marine activities, there has been an increasing number of maritime mobile terminals, as well as a growing demand for high-speed and ultra-reliable maritime communications to keep them connected. Traditionally, the maritime Internet of Things (IoT) is enabled by maritime satellites. However, satellites are seriously restricted by their high latency and relatively low data rate. As an alternative, shore & island-based base stations (BSs) can be built to extend the coverage of terrestrial networks using fourth-generation (4G), fifth-generation (5G), and beyond 5G services. Unmanned aerial vehicles can also be exploited to serve as aerial maritime BSs. Despite of all these approaches, there are still open issues for an efficient maritime communication network (MCN). For example, due to the complicated electromagnetic propagation environment, the limited geometrically available BS sites, and rigorous service demands from mission-critical applications, conventional communication and networking theories and methods should be tailored for maritime scenarios. Towards this end, we provide a survey on the demand for maritime communications, the state-of-the-art MCNs, and key technologies for enhancing transmission efficiency, extending network coverage, and provisioning maritime-specific services. Future challenges in developing an environment-aware, service-driven, and integrated satellite-air-ground MCN to be smart enough to utilize external auxiliary information, e.g., sea state and atmosphere conditions, are also discussed

The state of broadband 2015: Broadband as a foundation for sustainable development

Every year, the ITU/UNESCO Broadband Commission for Digital Development ‘State of Broadband’ report takes the pulse of the global broadband industry and explores progress in broadband connectivity. This year’s report finds mixed messages about the growth of ICTs and the global state of broadband. Although strong growth rates continue for mobile broadband and Facebook usage, and mobile cellular subscriptions exceeded 7 billion for the first time during 2015, growth in both mobile cellular subscriptions and Internet usage has slowed sharply. The UN Broadband Commission’s 2011 targets have not been achieved by the target date of 2015 and seem unlikely to be achieved before 2020. Likewise, the milestone of four billion Internet users is unlikely to be surpassed before 2020. The growth in Facebook subscribers is now outpacing growth in the Internet. Internet growth By end 2015, some 3.2 billion people will be online, equating to over 43.4% of the total world population, and up from 2.9 billion a year earlier (almost 40.6% of the population). In the developing world, Internet penetration will surpass 35.3% by the end of 2015; penetration will still be under 10% at 9.5% in the UN-designated Least Developed Countries, however. Even though Internet penetration is approaching saturation in the developed world, with 82.2% of the population online, the global target of 60% set by the Broadband Commission in 2011, to be achieved by 2015, is unlikely to be achieved before 2021 at the earliest. Internet user penetration in the developing world is unlikely to achieve the Broadband Commission target of 50% before 2020. By the end of 2015, there will still be 57% of the world’s population – or four billion people – still offline. Household Internet access in developed countries is close to saturation, with more than 81.3% of households connected. The proportion of households in the developing world with Internet access has increased from 31.5% at the end of 2014 to over 34.1% a year later – still well short of the Broadband Commission target of 40% by 2015. Household connectivity figures mask strong disparities – fewer than 7% of households in LDCs have access, while in sub-Saharan Africa only 1 in 9 households is connected. According to Point Topic, Asia has the largest total number of broadband-connected homes, with nearly as many in total as Europe and the Americas combined. The gender gap in Internet users is proving stubbornly persistent, with an estimated 200 million more men online than women as recently as 2013; one major problem is that sex-disaggregated data are not yet widely reported by national governments and statistics agencies. Mobile growth The mobile industry is growing strongly, but unevenly. ITU forecasts that the milestone of seven billion mobile cellular subscriptions will be exceeded by end 2015, equivalent to a global penetration rate of 97 subscriptions per 100 people. ITU also estimates that there will be a total of almost 3.5 billion mobile broadband subscriptions by end 2015. Industry analysts predict 6.5 billion mobile broadband (3G/4G/5G) subscriptions by 2019, making mobile broadband the fastest growing ICT service in history. Asia-Pacific now accounts for half of all mobile broadband subscriptions, up from just under 45% at the end of 2014. In January 2015, China Mobile became the world’s largest mobile operator by number of subscribers. The rapid expansion of Asia-Pacific is squeezing other world regions in terms of their mobile broadband market share – Europe and the Americas saw declining proportional shares of mobile broadband subscriptions from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, despite absolute increases in subscription numbers. Smartphones now dominate the mobile device market, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Ericsson forecasts that the number of smartphones in service could exceed ‘basic’ phones by 2016. While developed markets become saturated in terms of total mobile penetration, analysts still see plenty of room for growth, with only an estimated one third of all mobile subscriptions currently associated with a smartphone. In hindsight, the year 2014 is likely to prove a tipping point as the year in which growth in ‘3G’ services began to slow, as growth in ‘4G’ services accelerated. Continued in report. &nbsp

Techno-economic viability of integrating satellite communication in 4G networks to bridge the broadband digital divide

Bridging the broadband digital divide between urban and rural areas in Europe is one of the main targets of the Digital Agenda for Europe. Though many technological options are proposed in literature, satellite communication has been identified as the only possible solution for the most rural areas, due to its global coverage. However, deploying an end-to-end satellite solution might, in some cases, not be cost-effective. The aim of this study is to give insights into the economic effectiveness of integrating satellite communications into 4G networks in order to connect the most rural areas (also referred to as white areas) in Europe. To this end, this paper proposes a converged solution that combines satellite communication as a backhaul network with 4G as a fronthaul network to bring enhanced broadband connectivity to European rural areas, along with a techno-economic model to analyse the economic viability of this integration. The model is based on a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model for 5 years, taking into account both capital and operational expenditures, and aims to calculate the TCO as well as the Average Cost Per User (ACPU) for the studied scenarios. We evaluate the suggested model by simulating a hypothetical use case for two scenarios. The first scenario is based on a radio access network connecting to the 4G core network via a satellite link. Results for this scenario show high operational costs. In order to reduce these costs, we propose a second scenario, consisting of caching the popular content on the edge to reduce the traffic carried over the satellite link. This scenario demonstrates a significant operational cost decrease (more than 60%), which also means a significant ACPU decrease. We evaluate the robustness of the results by simulating for a range of population densities, hereby also providing an indication of the economic viability of our proposed solution across a wider range of areas