Routing and scheduling optimisation under uncertainty for engineering applications

The thesis aims to develop a viable computational approach suitable for solving large vehicle routing and scheduling optimisation problems affected by uncertainty. The modelling framework is built upon recent advances in Stochastic Optimisation, Robust Optimisation and Distributionally Robust Optimization. The utility of the methodology is presented on two classes of discrete optimisation problems: scheduling satellite communication, which is a variant of Machine Scheduling, and the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Synchronised Visits. For each problem class, a practical engineering application is formulated using data coming from the real world. The significant size of the problem instances reinforced the need to apply a different computational approach for each problem class. Satellite communication is scheduled using a Mixed-Integer Programming solver. In contrast, the vehicle routing problem with synchronised visits is solved using a hybrid method that combines Iterated Local Search, Constraint Programming and the Guided Local Search metaheuristic. The featured application of scheduling satellite communication is the Satellite Quantum Key Distribution for a system that consists of one spacecraft placed in the Lower Earth Orbit and a network of optical ground stations located in the United Kingdom. The satellite generates cryptographic keys and transmits them to individual ground stations. Each ground station should receive the number of keys in proportion to the importance of the ground station in the network. As clouds containing water attenuate the signal, reliable scheduling needs to account for cloud cover predictions, which are naturally affected by uncertainty. A new uncertainty sets tailored for modelling uncertainty in predictions of atmospheric phenomena is the main contribution to the methodology. The uncertainty set models the evolution of uncertain parameters using a Multivariate Vector Auto-Regressive Time Series, which preserves correlations over time and space. The problem formulation employing the new uncertainty set compares favourably to a suite of alternative models adapted from the literature considering both the computational time and the cost-effectiveness of the schedule evaluated in the cloud cover conditions observed in the real world. The other contribution of the thesis in the satellite scheduling domain is the formulation of the Satellite Quantum Key Distribution problem. The proof of computational complexity and thorough performance analysis of an example Satellite Quantum Key Distribution system accompany the formulation. The Home Care Scheduling and Routing Problem, which instances are solved for the largest provider of such services in Scotland, is the application of the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Synchronised Visits. The problem instances contain over 500 visits. Around 20% of them require two carers simultaneously. Such problem instances are well beyond the scalability limitations of the exact method and considerably larger than instances of similar problems considered in the literature. The optimisation approach proposed in the thesis found effective solutions in attractive computational time (i.e., less than 30 minutes) and the solutions reduced the total travel time threefold compared to alternative schedules computed by human planners. The Essential Riskiness Index Optimisation was incorporated into the Constraint Programming model to address uncertainty in visits' duration. Besides solving large problem instances from the real world, the solution method reproduced the majority of the best results reported in the literature and strictly improved the solutions for several instances of a well-known benchmark for the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Synchronised Visits.The thesis aims to develop a viable computational approach suitable for solving large vehicle routing and scheduling optimisation problems affected by uncertainty. The modelling framework is built upon recent advances in Stochastic Optimisation, Robust Optimisation and Distributionally Robust Optimization. The utility of the methodology is presented on two classes of discrete optimisation problems: scheduling satellite communication, which is a variant of Machine Scheduling, and the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Synchronised Visits. For each problem class, a practical engineering application is formulated using data coming from the real world. The significant size of the problem instances reinforced the need to apply a different computational approach for each problem class. Satellite communication is scheduled using a Mixed-Integer Programming solver. In contrast, the vehicle routing problem with synchronised visits is solved using a hybrid method that combines Iterated Local Search, Constraint Programming and the Guided Local Search metaheuristic. The featured application of scheduling satellite communication is the Satellite Quantum Key Distribution for a system that consists of one spacecraft placed in the Lower Earth Orbit and a network of optical ground stations located in the United Kingdom. The satellite generates cryptographic keys and transmits them to individual ground stations. Each ground station should receive the number of keys in proportion to the importance of the ground station in the network. As clouds containing water attenuate the signal, reliable scheduling needs to account for cloud cover predictions, which are naturally affected by uncertainty. A new uncertainty sets tailored for modelling uncertainty in predictions of atmospheric phenomena is the main contribution to the methodology. The uncertainty set models the evolution of uncertain parameters using a Multivariate Vector Auto-Regressive Time Series, which preserves correlations over time and space. The problem formulation employing the new uncertainty set compares favourably to a suite of alternative models adapted from the literature considering both the computational time and the cost-effectiveness of the schedule evaluated in the cloud cover conditions observed in the real world. The other contribution of the thesis in the satellite scheduling domain is the formulation of the Satellite Quantum Key Distribution problem. The proof of computational complexity and thorough performance analysis of an example Satellite Quantum Key Distribution system accompany the formulation. The Home Care Scheduling and Routing Problem, which instances are solved for the largest provider of such services in Scotland, is the application of the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Synchronised Visits. The problem instances contain over 500 visits. Around 20% of them require two carers simultaneously. Such problem instances are well beyond the scalability limitations of the exact method and considerably larger than instances of similar problems considered in the literature. The optimisation approach proposed in the thesis found effective solutions in attractive computational time (i.e., less than 30 minutes) and the solutions reduced the total travel time threefold compared to alternative schedules computed by human planners. The Essential Riskiness Index Optimisation was incorporated into the Constraint Programming model to address uncertainty in visits' duration. Besides solving large problem instances from the real world, the solution method reproduced the majority of the best results reported in the literature and strictly improved the solutions for several instances of a well-known benchmark for the Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Synchronised Visits

Scheduling of space to ground quantum key distribution

Satellite-based platforms are currently the only feasible way of achieving intercontinental range for quantum communication, enabling thus the future global quantum internet. Recent demonstrations by the Chinese spacecraft Micius have spurred an international space race and enormous interest in the development of both scientific and commercial systems. Research efforts so far have concentrated upon in-orbit demonstrations involving a single satellite and one or two ground stations. Ultimately satellite quantum key distribution should enable secure network communication between multiple nodes, which requires efficient scheduling of communication with the set of ground stations. Here we present a study of how satellite quantum key distribution can service many ground stations taking into account realistic constraints such as geography, operational hours, and most importantly, weather conditions. The objective is to maximise the number of keys a set of ground stations located in the United Kingdom could share while simultaneously reflecting the communication needs of each node and its relevance in the network. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear optimisation program and solved to a desired optimality gap using a state of the art solver. The approach is presented using a simulation run throughout six years to investigate the total number of keys that can be sent to ground stations

Rule-Based System Architecting of Earth Observing Systems: Earth Science Decadal Survey

This paper presents a methodology to explore the architectural trade space of Earth observing satellite systems, and applies it to the Earth Science Decadal Survey. The architecting problem is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem with three sets of architectural decisions: instrument selection, assignment of instruments to satellites, and mission scheduling. A computational tool was created to automatically synthesize architectures based on valid combinations of options for these three decisions and evaluate them according to several figures of merit, including satisfaction of program requirements, data continuity, affordability, and proxies for fairness, technical, and programmatic risk. A population-based heuristic search algorithm is used to search the trade space. The novelty of the tool is that it uses a rule-based expert system to model the knowledge-intensive components of the problem, such as scientific requirements, and to capture the nonlinear positive and negative interactions between instruments (synergies and interferences), which drive both requirement satisfaction and cost. The tool is first demonstrated on the past NASA Earth Observing System program and then applied to the Decadal Survey. Results suggest that the Decadal Survey architecture is dominated by other more distributed architectures in which DESDYNI and CLARREO are consistently broken down into individual instruments."La Caixa" FoundationCharles Stark Draper LaboratoryGoddard Space Flight Cente

Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Complex Decision Environments

In the future, many decisions will either be fully automated or supported by autonomous system. Consequently, it is of high importance that we understand how to integrate human preferences correctly. This dissertation dives into the research field of multi-criteria decision making and investigates the satellite image acquisition scheduling problem and the unmanned aerial vehicle routing problem to further the research on a priori preference integration frameworks. The work will aid in the transition towards autonomous decision making in complex decision environments. A discussion on the future of pairwise and setwise preference articulation methods is also undertaken. "Simply put, a direct consequence of the improved decision-making methods is,that bad decisions more clearly will stand out as what they are - bad decisions.

In pursuit of autonomous distributed satellite systems

A la pàgina 265 diu: "In an effort to facilitate the reproduction of results, both the source code of the simulation environment and the configuration files that were prepared for the design characterisation are available in an open repository: https://github.com/carlesaraguz/aeossSatellite imagery has become an essential resource for environmental, humanitarian, and industrial endeavours. As a means to satisfy the requirements of new applications and user needs, novel Earth Observation (EO) systems are exploring the suitability of Distributed Satellite Systems (DSS) in which multiple observation assets concurrently sense the Earth. Given the temporal and spatial resolution requirements of EO products, DSS are often envisioned as large-scale systems with multiple sensing capabilities operating in a networked manner. Enabled by the consolidation of small satellite platforms and fostered by the emerging capabilities of distributed systems, these new architectures pose multiple design and operational challenges. Two of them are the main pillars of this research, namely, the conception of decision-support tools to assist the architecting process of a DSS, and the design of autonomous operational frameworks based on decentralised, on-board decision-making. The first part of this dissertation addresses the architecting of heterogeneous, networked DSS architectures that hybridise small satellite platforms with traditional EO assets. We present a generic design-oriented optimisation framework based on tradespace exploration methodologies. The goals of this framework are twofold: to select the most optimal constellation design; and to facilitate the identification of design trends, unfeasible regions, and tensions among architectural attributes. Oftentimes in EO DSS, system requirements and stakeholder preferences are not only articulated through functional attributes (i.e. resolution, revisit time, etc.) or monetary constraints, but also through qualitative traits such as flexibility, evolvability, robustness, or resiliency, amongst others. In line with that, the architecting framework defines a single figure of merit that aggregates quantitative attributes and qualitative ones-the so-called ilities of a system. With that, designers can steer the design of DSS both in terms of performance or cost, and in terms of their high-level characteristics. The application of this optimisation framework has been illustrated in two timely use-cases identified in the context of the EU-funded ONION project: a system that measures ocean and ice parameters in Polar regions to facilitate weather forecast and off-shore operations; and a system that provides agricultural variables crucial for global management of water stress, crop state, and draughts. The analysis of architectural features facilitated a comprehensive understanding of the functional and operational characteristics of DSS. With that, this thesis continues to delve into the design of DSS by focusing on one particular functional trait: autonomy. The minimisation of human-operator intervention has been traditionally sought in other space systems and can be especially critical for large-scale, structurally dynamic, heterogeneous DSS. In DSS, autonomy is expected to cope with the likely inability to operate very large-scale systems in a centralised manner, to improve the science return, and to leverage many of their emerging capabilities (e.g. tolerance to failures, adaptability to changing structures and user needs, responsiveness). We propose an autonomous operational framework that provides decentralised decision-making capabilities to DSS by means of local reasoning and individual resource allocation, and satellite-to-satellite interactions. In contrast to previous works, the autonomous decision-making framework is evaluated in this dissertation for generic constellation designs the goal of which is to minimise global revisit times. As part of the characterisation of our solution, we stressed the implications that autonomous operations can have upon satellite platforms with stringent resource constraints (e.g. power, memory, communications capabilities) and evaluated the behaviour of the solution for a large-scale DSS composed of 117 CubeSat-like satellite units.La imatgeria per satèl·lit ha esdevingut un recurs essencial per assolir tasques ambientals, humanitàries o industrials. Per tal de satisfer els requeriments de les noves aplicacions i usuaris, els sistemes d’observació de la Terra (OT) estan explorant la idoneïtat dels Sistemes de Satèl·lit Distribuïts (SSD), on múltiples observatoris espacials mesuren el planeta simultàniament. Degut al les resolucions temporals i espacials requerides, els SSD sovint es conceben com sistemes de gran escala que operen en xarxa. Aquestes noves arquitectures promouen les capacitats emergents dels sistemes distribuïts i, tot i que són possibles gràcies a l’acceptació de les plataformes de satèl·lits petits, encara presenten molts reptes en quant al disseny i operacions. Dos d’ells són els pilars principals d’aquesta tesi, en concret, la concepció d’eines de suport a la presa de decisions pel disseny de SSD, i la definició d’operacions autònomes basades en gestió descentralitzada a bord dels satèl·lits. La primera part d’aquesta dissertació es centra en el disseny arquitectural de SSD heterogenis i en xarxa, imbricant tecnologies de petits satèl·lits amb actius tradicionals. Es presenta un entorn d’optimització orientat al disseny basat en metodologies d’exploració i comparació de solucions. Els objectius d’aquest entorn són: la selecció el disseny de constel·lació més òptim; i facilitar la identificació de tendències de disseny, regions d’incompatibilitat, i tensions entre atributs arquitecturals. Sovint en els SSD d’OT, els requeriments del sistema i l’expressió de prioritats no només s’articulen en quant als atributs funcionals o les restriccions monetàries, sinó també a través de les característiques qualitatives com la flexibilitat, l’evolucionabilitat, la robustesa, o la resiliència, entre d’altres. En línia amb això, l’entorn d’optimització defineix una única figura de mèrit que agrega rendiment, cost i atributs qualitatius. Així l’equip de disseny pot influir en les solucions del procés d’optimització tant en els aspectes quantitatius, com en les característiques dalt nivell. L’aplicació d’aquest entorn d’optimització s’il·lustra en dos casos d’ús actuals identificats en context del projecte europeu ONION: un sistema que mesura paràmetres de l’oceà i gel als pols per millorar la predicció meteorològica i les operacions marines; i un sistema que obté mesures agronòmiques vitals per la gestió global de l’aigua, l’estimació d’estat dels cultius, i la gestió de sequeres. L’anàlisi de propietats arquitecturals ha permès copsar de manera exhaustiva les característiques funcionals i operacionals d’aquests sistemes. Amb això, la tesi ha seguit aprofundint en el disseny de SSD centrant-se, particularment, en un tret funcional: l’autonomia. Minimitzar la intervenció de l’operador humà és comú en altres sistemes espacials i podria ser especialment crític pels SSD de gran escala, d’estructura dinàmica i heterogenis. En els SSD s’espera que l’autonomia solucioni la possible incapacitat d’operar sistemes de gran escala de forma centralitzada, que millori el retorn científic i que n’apuntali les seves propietats emergents (e.g. tolerància a errors, adaptabilitat a canvis estructural i de necessitats d’usuari, capacitat de resposta). Es proposa un sistema d’operacions autònomes que atorga la capacitat de gestionar els sistemes de forma descentralitzada, a través del raonament local, l’assignació individual de recursos, i les interaccions satèl·lit-a-satèl·lit. Al contrari que treballs anteriors, la presa de decisions autònoma s’avalua per constel·lacions que tenen com a objectius de missió la minimització del temps de revisita global.Postprint (published version