When and Where: Predicting Human Movements Based on Social Spatial-Temporal Events

Predicting both the time and the location of human movements is valuable but challenging for a variety of applications. To address this problem, we propose an approach considering both the periodicity and the sociality of human movements. We first define a new concept, Social Spatial-Temporal Event (SSTE), to represent social interactions among people. For the time prediction, we characterise the temporal dynamics of SSTEs with an ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) model. To dynamically capture the SSTE kinetics, we propose a Kalman Filter based learning algorithm to learn and incrementally update the ARMA model as a new observation becomes available. For the location prediction, we propose a ranking model where the periodicity and the sociality of human movements are simultaneously taken into consideration for improving the prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on real data sets validate our proposed approach

Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction

In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

Privacy-Friendly Mobility Analytics using Aggregate Location Data

Location data can be extremely useful to study commuting patterns and disruptions, as well as to predict real-time traffic volumes. At the same time, however, the fine-grained collection of user locations raises serious privacy concerns, as this can reveal sensitive information about the users, such as, life style, political and religious inclinations, or even identities. In this paper, we study the feasibility of crowd-sourced mobility analytics over aggregate location information: users periodically report their location, using a privacy-preserving aggregation protocol, so that the server can only recover aggregates -- i.e., how many, but not which, users are in a region at a given time. We experiment with real-world mobility datasets obtained from the Transport For London authority and the San Francisco Cabs network, and present a novel methodology based on time series modeling that is geared to forecast traffic volumes in regions of interest and to detect mobility anomalies in them. In the presence of anomalies, we also make enhanced traffic volume predictions by feeding our model with additional information from correlated regions. Finally, we present and evaluate a mobile app prototype, called Mobility Data Donors (MDD), in terms of computation, communication, and energy overhead, demonstrating the real-world deployability of our techniques.Comment: Published at ACM SIGSPATIAL 201

A novel Big Data analytics and intelligent technique to predict driver's intent

Modern age offers a great potential for automatically predicting the driver's intent through the increasing miniaturization of computing technologies, rapid advancements in communication technologies and continuous connectivity of heterogeneous smart objects. Inside the cabin and engine of modern cars, dedicated computer systems need to possess the ability to exploit the wealth of information generated by heterogeneous data sources with different contextual and conceptual representations. Processing and utilizing this diverse and voluminous data, involves many challenges concerning the design of the computational technique used to perform this task. In this paper, we investigate the various data sources available in the car and the surrounding environment, which can be utilized as inputs in order to predict driver's intent and behavior. As part of investigating these potential data sources, we conducted experiments on e-calendars for a large number of employees, and have reviewed a number of available geo referencing systems. Through the results of a statistical analysis and by computing location recognition accuracy results, we explored in detail the potential utilization of calendar location data to detect the driver's intentions. In order to exploit the numerous diverse data inputs available in modern vehicles, we investigate the suitability of different Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques, and propose a novel fuzzy computational modelling methodology. Finally, we outline the impact of applying advanced CI and Big Data analytics techniques in modern vehicles on the driver and society in general, and discuss ethical and legal issues arising from the deployment of intelligent self-learning cars

Context Trees: Augmenting Geospatial Trajectories with Context

Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups. Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new hierarchical data structure that summarises the context behind user actions in a single model. We propose a method for context tree construction that augments geospatial trajectories with land usage data to identify such contexts. Through evaluation of the construction method and analysis of the properties of generated context trees, we demonstrate the foundation for understanding and modelling behaviour afforded. Summarising user contexts into a single data structure gives easy access to information that would otherwise remain latent, providing the basis for better understanding and predicting the actions and behaviours of individuals and groups. Finally, we also present a method for pruning context trees, for use in applications where it is desirable to reduce the size of the tree while retaining useful information