Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches

A New Approach for Resolving Conflicts in Actionable Behavioral Rules

Knowledge is considered actionable if users can take direct actions based on such knowledge to their advantage. Among the most important and distinctive actionable knowledge are actionable behavioral rules that can directly and explicitly suggest specific actions to take to influence (restrain or encourage) the behavior in the users’ best interest. However, in mining such rules, it often occurs that different rules may suggest the same actions with different expected utilities, which we call conflicting rules. To resolve the conflicts, a previous valid method was proposed. However, inconsistency of the measure for rule evaluating may hinder its performance. To overcome this problem, we develop a new method that utilizes rule ranking procedure as the basis for selecting the rule with the highest utility prediction accuracy. More specifically, we propose an integrative measure, which combines the measures of the support and antecedent length, to evaluate the utility prediction accuracies of conflicting rules. We also introduce a tunable weight parameter to allow the flexibility of integration. We conduct several experiments to test our proposed approach and evaluate the sensitivity of the weight parameter. Empirical results indicate that our approach outperforms those from previous research

A New Approach for Resolving Conflicts in Actionable Behavioral Rules

Knowledge is considered actionable if users can take direct actions based on such knowledge to their advantage. Among the most important and distinctive actionable knowledge are actionable behavioral rules that can directly and explicitly suggest specific actions to take to influence (restrain or encourage) the behavior in the users' best interest. However, in mining such rules, it often occurs that different rules may suggest the same actions with different expected utilities, which we call conflicting rules. To resolve the conflicts, a previous valid method was proposed. However, inconsistency of the measure for rule evaluating may hinder its performance. To overcome this problem, we develop a new method that utilizes rule ranking procedure as the basis for selecting the rule with the highest utility prediction accuracy. More specifically, we propose an integrative measure, which combines the measures of the support and antecedent length, to evaluate the utility prediction accuracies of conflicting rules. We also introduce a tunable weight parameter to allow the flexibility of integration. We conduct several experiments to test our proposed approach and evaluate the sensitivity of the weight parameter. Empirical results indicate that our approach outperforms those from previous research

Extracting actionable knowledge to increase business utility in sport services

The increase in retention of customer in gyms and health clubs is nowadays a challenge that requires concrete and personalized actions. Traditional data mining studies focused essentially on predictive analytics, neglecting the business domain. This work presents an actionable knowledge discovery system which uses the following pipeline (data collection, predictive model, loyalty actions). In the first step, it extracts and transforms existing real data from databases of the sports facilities. In a second step, predictive models are applied to identify user profiles more susceptible to dropout. Actionable rules are generated based on actionable attributes that should be avoided, in order to increase retention. Finally, in the third step, based on the previous actionable knowledge, experimental planning is carried out, with test and control groups, in order to find the best loyalty actions for customer retention. This document presents a simulation and the measure of the business utility of an actions sequence to avoid dropout.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Towards Design Principles for Data-Driven Decision Making: An Action Design Research Project in the Maritime Industry

Data-driven decision making (DDD) refers to organizational decision-making practices that emphasize the use of data and statistical analysis instead of relying on human judgment only. Various empirical studies provide evidence for the value of DDD, both on individual decision maker level and the organizational level. Yet, the path from data to value is not always an easy one and various organizational and psychological factors mediate and moderate the translation of data-driven insights into better decisions and, subsequently, effective business actions. The current body of academic literature on DDD lacks prescriptive knowledge on how to successfully employ DDD in complex organizational settings. Against this background, this paper reports on an action design research study aimed at designing and implementing IT artifacts for DDD at one of the largest ship engine manufacturers in the world. Our main contribution is a set of design principles highlighting, besides decision quality, the importance of model comprehensibility, domain knowledge, and actionability of results