A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6

Bayesian approach to Spatio-temporally Consistent Simulation of Daily Monsoon Rainfall over India

Simulation of rainfall over a region for long time-sequences can be very useful for planning and policy-making, especially in India where the economy is heavily reliant on monsoon rainfall. However, such simulations should be able to preserve the known spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall over India. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are unable to do so, and various rainfall generators designed by hydrologists using stochastic processes like Gaussian Processes are also difficult to apply over the vast and highly diverse landscape of India. In this paper, we explore a series of Bayesian models based on conditional distributions of latent variables that describe weather conditions at specific locations and over the whole country. During parameter estimation from observed data, we use spatio-temporal smoothing using Markov Random Field so that the parameters learnt are spatially and temporally coherent. Also, we use a nonparametric spatial clustering based on Chinese Restaurant Process to identify homogeneous regions, which are utilized by some of the proposed models to improve spatial correlations of the simulated rainfall. The models are able to simulate daily rainfall across India for years, and can also utilize contextual information for conditional simulation. We use two datasets of different spatial resolutions over India, and focus on the period 2000-2015. We propose a large number of metrics to study the spatio-temporal properties of the simulations by the models, and compare them with the observed data to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the models

Climate and Land Degradation

On the occasion of the Seventh session of the Conference of Parties, The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has prepared this brochure which explains the role of different climatic factors in land degradation and WMO's contribution in addressing this important subject. Educational levels: Undergraduate lower division, Undergraduate upper division, Graduate or professional, Informal education, General public

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development

human development, climate change

Rainfall trends in India and their impact on soil erosion and land management

Under the threat of global warming it is vital to determine the impact that future changes in climate may have on the environment and to what extent any adverse effects can be mitigated. In this research an assessment was carried out on the impact that climate trends may have on soil erosion and contaminant transport in India and examined the potential for top soil management practices to improve or maintain soil quality. Historical rainfall data from 50-135 years and extreme temperature data for 103 years were analysed and long term trends were assessed for various aspects of Indian climates using suitable statistical techniques. Results indicated that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal rainfall is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess everywhere in India except in the peninsular Indian region. This is further exacerbated by increased and more variable extreme temperatures. Intra-region rainfall variability in India is linked to the pacific Southern Oscillation, where the associations of monsoon drought and El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the regions near to coast are greatest. 50-years high resolution daily gridded rainfall data was analysed to set up certain indices for the extreme daily rainfalls to assess their changes for the six gridded regions of Kerala, the extreme south western state of India where monsoon rainfall initiates every year. This was also done for two study sites, namely Bhoj wetland area of west central India and Sukinda chromite mining site of central north east India. Significant decrease was found in monsoon and spring rainfall extremes and increase in winter and autumn rainfall extremes in Kerala that would affect the tendency of change in seasonal total rainfall as well. Decrease in monsoon rainfall in Kerala also indicate that monsoon rainfall is decreasing in India as a whole, increased occurrence of floods is expected in winter and autumn seasons, together with water scarcity are expected to be felt both in spring and monsoon seasons with a delaying monsoon onset in Kerala. Soil erosion studies were conducted for two northern most gridded regions of Kerala as an extended work of the related MPhil study, and contaminant transport with eroded sediments was looked at for the Bhoj and Sukinda sites using RUSLE2 model software and other suitable numerical methods. It was found that soil erosion depended on a complex interaction of climate, soil properties, topography, and cover management. An assessment on extreme climate patterns for Bhoj and Sukinda showed an increasing tendency of seasonal and annual rainfall extremes and temperatures leading to an increasing pattern of soil erosion at both the sites. However, a certain consensus was difficult to reach because of the complex interaction of climate and soil carbon that is a very important deciding factor for soil erosion potential. Vegetative cover and plant residue was found providing essential soil nutrients, enhancing soil properties and retarding rainfall impact on bare top soil leading to reduction of soil erosion. Therefore, a soil erosion and contaminant transport prevention plan should take care of the top soil such that it is not kept bare especially when rainfall intensity is high in a given year. This work as a whole has highlighted the importance of regional climatological analysis with the large scale spatial averages especially at local decision making level, which is very useful for the broad scenarios such as climatological and ecological risk management

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Monsoon variability: Links to major oscillations over the equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans

In this article, we first discuss our perception of the factors which are critical for inter-annual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the major milestones leading to this understanding. The nature of the two critical modes for monsoon variability, viz. El Nino Southern Oscillation and equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation is considered and their links to the monsoon elucidated. We suggest possible reasons for the rather poor skill of simulation of the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by atmospheric general circulation models, run with the observed sea surface temperature as boundary condition. We discuss implications of what we have learned for the monsoon of 2006, and possible use of information on the two important modes for prediction of the rainfall in all or part of the summer monsoon season. We conclude with our view of what the focus of research and development should be for achieving a substantial improvement in the skill of simulation and prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the near future

The Drought Risk Analysis, Forecasting, and Assessment under Climate Change

This Special Issue is a platform to fill the gaps in drought risk analysis with field experience and expertise. It covers (1) robust index development for effective drought monitoring; (2) risk analysis framework development and early warning systems; (3) impact investigations on hydrological and agricultural sectors; (4) environmental change impact analyses. The articles in the Special Issue cover a wide geographic range, across China, Taiwan, Korea, and the Indo-China peninsula, which covers many contrasting climate conditions. Hence, the results have global implications: the data, analysis/modeling, methodologies, and conclusions lay a solid foundation for enhancing our scientific knowledge of drought mechanisms and relationships to various environmental conditions