4,985 research outputs found

    Applications of Deep Learning Models in Financial Forecasting

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    In financial markets, deep learning techniques sparked a revolution, reshaping conventional approaches and amplifying predictive capabilities. This thesis explored the applications of deep learning models to unravel insights and methodologies aimed at advancing financial forecasting. The crux of the research problem lies in the applications of predictive models within financial domains, characterised by high volatility and uncertainty. This thesis investigated the application of advanced deep-learning methodologies in the context of financial forecasting, addressing the challenges posed by the dynamic nature of financial markets. These challenges were tackled by exploring a range of techniques, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), autoencoders (AEs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs), along with approaches such as encoding financial time series into images. Through analysis, methodologies such as transfer learning, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory networks, generative modelling, and image encoding of time series data were examined. These methodologies collectively offered a comprehensive toolkit for extracting meaningful insights from financial data. The present work investigated the practicality of a deep learning CNN-LSTM model within the Directional Change framework to predict significant DC events—a task crucial for timely decisionmaking in financial markets. Furthermore, the potential of autoencoders and variational autoencoders to enhance financial forecasting accuracy and remove noise from financial time series data was explored. Leveraging their capacity within financial time series, these models offered promising avenues for improved data representation and subsequent forecasting. To further contribute to financial prediction capabilities, a deep multi-model was developed that harnessed the power of pre-trained computer vision models. This innovative approach aimed to predict the VVIX, utilising the cross-disciplinary synergy between computer vision and financial forecasting. By integrating knowledge from these domains, novel insights into the prediction of market volatility were provided

    On the Generation of Realistic and Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Algorithmic Recourse

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    This recent widespread deployment of machine learning algorithms presents many new challenges. Machine learning algorithms are usually opaque and can be particularly difficult to interpret. When humans are involved, algorithmic and automated decisions can negatively impact people’s lives. Therefore, end users would like to be insured against potential harm. One popular way to achieve this is to provide end users access to algorithmic recourse, which gives end users negatively affected by algorithmic decisions the opportunity to reverse unfavorable decisions, e.g., from a loan denial to a loan acceptance. In this thesis, we design recourse algorithms to meet various end user needs. First, we propose methods for the generation of realistic recourses. We use generative models to suggest recourses likely to occur under the data distribution. To this end, we shift the recourse action from the input space to the generative model’s latent space, allowing to generate counterfactuals that lie in regions with data support. Second, we observe that small changes applied to the recourses prescribed to end users likely invalidate the suggested recourse after being nosily implemented in practice. Motivated by this observation, we design methods for the generation of robust recourses and for assessing the robustness of recourse algorithms to data deletion requests. Third, the lack of a commonly used code-base for counterfactual explanation and algorithmic recourse algorithms and the vast array of evaluation measures in literature make it difficult to compare the per formance of different algorithms. To solve this problem, we provide an open source benchmarking library that streamlines the evaluation process and can be used for benchmarking, rapidly developing new methods, and setting up new experiments. In summary, our work contributes to a more reliable interaction of end users and machine learned models by covering fundamental aspects of the recourse process and suggests new solutions towards generating realistic and robust counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse

    A reinforcement learning recommender system using bi-clustering and Markov Decision Process

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    Collaborative filtering (CF) recommender systems are static in nature and does not adapt well with changing user preferences. User preferences may change after interaction with a system or after buying a product. Conventional CF clustering algorithms only identifies the distribution of patterns and hidden correlations globally. However, the impossibility of discovering local patterns by these algorithms, headed to the popularization of bi-clustering algorithms. Bi-clustering algorithms can analyze all dataset dimensions simultaneously and consequently, discover local patterns that deliver a better understanding of the underlying hidden correlations. In this paper, we modelled the recommendation problem as a sequential decision-making problem using Markov Decision Processes (MDP). To perform state representation for MDP, we first converted user-item votings matrix to a binary matrix. Then we performed bi-clustering on this binary matrix to determine a subset of similar rows and columns. A bi-cluster merging algorithm is designed to merge similar and overlapping bi-clusters. These bi-clusters are then mapped to a squared grid (SG). RL is applied on this SG to determine best policy to give recommendation to users. Start state is determined using Improved Triangle Similarity (ITR similarity measure. Reward function is computed as grid state overlapping in terms of users and items in current and prospective next state. A thorough comparative analysis was conducted, encompassing a diverse array of methodologies, including RL-based, pure Collaborative Filtering (CF), and clustering methods. The results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms its competitors in terms of precision, recall, and optimal policy learning

    AGI-P: A Gender Identification Framework for Authorship Analysis Using Customized Fine-Tuning of Multilingual Language Model

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    In this investigation, we propose a solution for the author’s gender identification task called AGI-P. This task has several real-world applications across different fields, such as marketing and advertising, forensic linguistics, sociology, recommendation systems, language processing, historical analysis, education, and language learning. We created a new dataset to evaluate our proposed method. The dataset is balanced in terms of gender using a random sampling method and consists of 1944 samples in total. We use accuracy as an evaluation measure and compare the performance of the proposed solution (AGI-P) against state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers and fine-tuned pre-trained multilingual language models such as DistilBERT, mBERT, XLM-RoBERTa, and Multilingual DEBERTa. In this regard, we also propose a customized fine-tuning strategy that improves the accuracy of the pre-trained language models for the author gender identification task. Our extensive experimental studies reveal that our solution (AGI-P) outperforms the well-known machine learning classifiers and fine-tuned pre-trained multilingual language models with an accuracy level of 92.03%. Moreover, the pre-trained multilingual language models, fine-tuned with the proposed customized strategy, outperform the fine-tuned pre-trained language models using an out-of-the-box fine-tuning strategy. The codebase and corpus can be accessed on our GitHub page at: https://github.com/mumairhassan/AGI-

    Multidisciplinary perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the law

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    This open access book presents an interdisciplinary, multi-authored, edited collection of chapters on Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) and the Law. AI technology has come to play a central role in the modern data economy. Through a combination of increased computing power, the growing availability of data and the advancement of algorithms, AI has now become an umbrella term for some of the most transformational technological breakthroughs of this age. The importance of AI stems from both the opportunities that it offers and the challenges that it entails. While AI applications hold the promise of economic growth and efficiency gains, they also create significant risks and uncertainty. The potential and perils of AI have thus come to dominate modern discussions of technology and ethics – and although AI was initially allowed to largely develop without guidelines or rules, few would deny that the law is set to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of AI. As the debate over AI is far from over, the need for rigorous analysis has never been greater. This book thus brings together contributors from different fields and backgrounds to explore how the law might provide answers to some of the most pressing questions raised by AI. An outcome of the Católica Research Centre for the Future of Law and its interdisciplinary working group on Law and Artificial Intelligence, it includes contributions by leading scholars in the fields of technology, ethics and the law.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Learning recommender systems from biased user interactions

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    Recommender systems have been widely deployed to help users quickly find what they need from a collection of items. Predominant recommendation methods rely on supervised learning models to predict user ratings on items or the probabilities of users interacting with items. In addition, reinforcement learning models are crucial in improving long-term user engagement within recommender systems. In practice, both of these recommendation methods are commonly trained on logged user interactions and, therefore, subject to bias present in logged user interactions. This thesis concerns complex forms of bias in real-world user behaviors and aims to mitigate the effect of bias on reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods. The first part of the thesis consists of two research chapters, each dedicated to tackling a specific form of bias: dynamic selection bias and multifactorial bias. To mitigate the effect of dynamic selection bias and multifactorial bias, we propose a bias propensity estimation method for each. By incorporating the results from the bias propensity estimation methods, the widely used inverse propensity scoring-based debiasing method can be extended to correct for the corresponding bias. The second part of the thesis consists of two chapters that concern the effect of bias on reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods. Its first chapter focuses on mitigating the effect of bias on simulators, which enables the learning and evaluation of reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods. Its second chapter further explores different state encoders for reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods when learning and evaluating with the proposed debiased simulator

    Fairness-aware Machine Learning in Educational Data Mining

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    Fairness is an essential requirement of every educational system, which is reflected in a variety of educational activities. With the extensive use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques in education, researchers and educators can analyze educational (big) data and propose new (technical) methods in order to support teachers, students, or administrators of (online) learning systems in the organization of teaching and learning. Educational data mining (EDM) is the result of the application and development of data mining (DM), and ML techniques to deal with educational problems, such as student performance prediction and student grouping. However, ML-based decisions in education can be based on protected attributes, such as race or gender, leading to discrimination of individual students or subgroups of students. Therefore, ensuring fairness in ML models also contributes to equity in educational systems. On the other hand, bias can also appear in the data obtained from learning environments. Hence, bias-aware exploratory educational data analysis is important to support unbiased decision-making in EDM. In this thesis, we address the aforementioned issues and propose methods that mitigate discriminatory outcomes of ML algorithms in EDM tasks. Specifically, we make the following contributions: We perform bias-aware exploratory analysis of educational datasets using Bayesian networks to identify the relationships among attributes in order to understand bias in the datasets. We focus the exploratory data analysis on features having a direct or indirect relationship with the protected attributes w.r.t. prediction outcomes. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of the sufficiency of various group fairness measures in predictive models for student performance prediction problems. A variety of experiments on various educational datasets with different fairness measures are performed to provide users with a broad view of unfairness from diverse aspects. We deal with the student grouping problem in collaborative learning. We introduce the fair-capacitated clustering problem that takes into account cluster fairness and cluster cardinalities. We propose two approaches, namely hierarchical clustering and partitioning-based clustering, to obtain fair-capacitated clustering. We introduce the multi-fair capacitated (MFC) students-topics grouping problem that satisfies students' preferences while ensuring balanced group cardinalities and maximizing the diversity of members regarding the protected attribute. We propose three approaches: a greedy heuristic approach, a knapsack-based approach using vanilla maximal 0-1 knapsack formulation, and an MFC knapsack approach based on group fairness knapsack formulation. In short, the findings described in this thesis demonstrate the importance of fairness-aware ML in educational settings. We show that bias-aware data analysis, fairness measures, and fairness-aware ML models are essential aspects to ensure fairness in EDM and the educational environment.Ministry of Science and Culture of Lower Saxony/LernMINT/51410078/E

    Advances and Challenges of Multi-task Learning Method in Recommender System: A Survey

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    Multi-task learning has been widely applied in computational vision, natural language processing and other fields, which has achieved well performance. In recent years, a lot of work about multi-task learning recommender system has been yielded, but there is no previous literature to summarize these works. To bridge this gap, we provide a systematic literature survey about multi-task recommender systems, aiming to help researchers and practitioners quickly understand the current progress in this direction. In this survey, we first introduce the background and the motivation of the multi-task learning-based recommender systems. Then we provide a taxonomy of multi-task learning-based recommendation methods according to the different stages of multi-task learning techniques, which including task relationship discovery, model architecture and optimization strategy. Finally, we raise discussions on the application and promising future directions in this area

    Reducing Popularity Bias in Recommender Systems through AUC-Optimal Negative Sampling

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    Popularity bias is a persistent issue associated with recommendation systems, posing challenges to both fairness and efficiency. Existing literature widely acknowledges that reducing popularity bias often requires sacrificing recommendation accuracy. In this paper, we challenge this commonly held belief. Our analysis under general bias-variance decomposition framework shows that reducing bias can actually lead to improved model performance under certain conditions. To achieve this win-win situation, we propose to intervene in model training through negative sampling thereby modifying model predictions. Specifically, we provide an optimal negative sampling rule that maximizes partial AUC to preserve the accuracy of any given model, while correcting sample information and prior information to reduce popularity bias in a flexible and principled way. Our experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach in improving recommendation performance and reducing popularity bias.Comment: 20 page

    A Comparative Analysis of Collaborative Filtering Similarity Measurements for Recommendation Systems

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    Collaborative Filtering (CF) is a widely used technique in recommendation systems to suggest items to users based on their previous interactions with the system. CF involves finding correlations between the preferences of different users and using those correlations to provide recommendations. This technique can be divided into user-based and item-based CF, both of which utilize similarity metrics to generate recommendations. Content-based filtering is another commonly used recommendation technique that analyzes the attributes of items to suggest similar items. To enhance the accuracy of recommendation systems, hybrid algorithms that combine CF and content-based filtering techniques have been developed. These hybrid systems leverage the strengths of both approaches to provide more accurate and personalized recommendations. In conclusion, collaborative filtering is an essential technique in recommendation systems, and the use of various similarity metrics and hybrid techniques can enhance the quality of recommendations
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