Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches

Re-mining association mining results through visualization, data envelopment analysis, and decision trees

Re-mining is a general framework which suggests the execution of additional data mining steps based on the results of an original data mining process. This study investigates the multi-faceted re-mining of association mining results, develops and presents a practical methodology, and shows the applicability of the developed methodology through real world data. The methodology suggests re-mining using data visualization, data envelopment analysis, and decision trees. Six hypotheses, regarding how re-mining can be carried out on association mining results, are answered in the case study through empirical analysis

Understanding Bots on Social Media - An Application in Disaster Response

abstract: Social media has become a primary platform for real-time information sharing among users. News on social media spreads faster than traditional outlets and millions of users turn to this platform to receive the latest updates on major events especially disasters. Social media bridges the gap between the people who are affected by disasters, volunteers who offer contributions, and first responders. On the other hand, social media is a fertile ground for malicious users who purposefully disturb the relief processes facilitated on social media. These malicious users take advantage of social bots to overrun social media posts with fake images, rumors, and false information. This process causes distress and prevents actionable information from reaching the affected people. Social bots are automated accounts that are controlled by a malicious user and these bots have become prevalent on social media in recent years. In spite of existing efforts towards understanding and removing bots on social media, there are at least two drawbacks associated with the current bot detection algorithms: general-purpose bot detection methods are designed to be conservative and not label a user as a bot unless the algorithm is highly confident and they overlook the effect of users who are manipulated by bots and (unintentionally) spread their content. This study is trifold. First, I design a Machine Learning model that uses content and context of social media posts to detect actionable ones among them; it specifically focuses on tweets in which people ask for help after major disasters. Second, I focus on bots who can be a facilitator of malicious content spreading during disasters. I propose two methods for detecting bots on social media with a focus on the recall of the detection. Third, I study the characteristics of users who spread the content of malicious actors. These features have the potential to improve methods that detect malicious content such as fake news.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Learning Outcomes in Massive Open Online Courses

With the rapid advancements in technology, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become the most popular form of online educational delivery, largely due to the removal of geographical and financial barriers for participants. A large number of learners globally enrol in such courses. Despite the flexible accessibility, results indicate that the completion rate is quite low. Educational Data Mining and Learning Analytics are emerging fields of research that aim to enhance the delivery of education through the application of various statistical and machine learning approaches. An extensive literature survey indicates that no significant research is available within the area of MOOC data analysis, in particular considering the behavioural patterns of users. In this paper, therefore, two sets of features, based on learner behavioural patterns, were compared in terms of their suitability for predicting the course outcome of learners participating in MOOCs. Our Exploratory Data Analysis demonstrates that there is strong correlation between click steam actions and successful learner outcomes. Various Machine Learning algorithms have been applied to enhance the accuracy of classifier models. Simulation results from our investigation have shown that Random Forest achieved viable performance for our prediction problem, obtaining the highest performance of the models tested. Conversely, Linear Discriminant Analysis achieved the lowest relative performance, though represented only a marginal reduction in performance relative to the Random Forest

EHRs Connect Research and Practice: Where Predictive Modeling, Artificial Intelligence, and Clinical Decision Support Intersect

Objectives: Electronic health records (EHRs) are only a first step in capturing and utilizing health-related data - the challenge is turning that data into useful information. Furthermore, EHRs are increasingly likely to include data relating to patient outcomes, functionality such as clinical decision support, and genetic information as well, and, as such, can be seen as repositories of increasingly valuable information about patients' health conditions and responses to treatment over time. Methods: We describe a case study of 423 patients treated by Centerstone within Tennessee and Indiana in which we utilized electronic health record data to generate predictive algorithms of individual patient treatment response. Multiple models were constructed using predictor variables derived from clinical, financial and geographic data. Results: For the 423 patients, 101 deteriorated, 223 improved and in 99 there was no change in clinical condition. Based on modeling of various clinical indicators at baseline, the highest accuracy in predicting individual patient response ranged from 70-72% within the models tested. In terms of individual predictors, the Centerstone Assessment of Recovery Level - Adult (CARLA) baseline score was most significant in predicting outcome over time (odds ratio 4.1 + 2.27). Other variables with consistently significant impact on outcome included payer, diagnostic category, location and provision of case management services. Conclusions: This approach represents a promising avenue toward reducing the current gap between research and practice across healthcare, developing data-driven clinical decision support based on real-world populations, and serving as a component of embedded clinical artificial intelligences that "learn" over time.Comment: Keywords: Data Mining; Decision Support Systems, Clinical; Electronic Health Records; Implementation; Evidence-Based Medicine; Data Warehouse; (2012). EHRs Connect Research and Practice: Where Predictive Modeling, Artificial Intelligence, and Clinical Decision Support Intersect. Health Policy and Technology. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1112.166

Analyzing Twitter Feeds to Facilitate Crises Informatics and Disaster Response During Mass Emergencies

It is a common practice these days for general public to use various micro-blogging platforms, predominantly Twitter, to share ideas, opinions and information about things and life. Twitter is also being increasingly used as a popular source of information sharing during natural disasters and mass emergencies to update and communicate the extent of the geographic phenomena, report the affected population and casualties, request or provide volunteering services and to share the status of disaster recovery process initiated by humanitarian-aid and disaster-management organizations. Recent research in this area has affirmed the potential use of such social media data for various disaster response tasks. Even though the availability of social media data is massive, open and free, there is a significant limitation in making sense of this data because of its high volume, variety, velocity, value, variability and veracity. The current work provides a comprehensive framework of text processing and analysis performed on several thousands of tweets shared on Twitter during natural disaster events. Specifically, this work em- ploys state-of-the-art machine learning techniques from natural language processing on tweet content to process the ginormous data generated at the time of disasters. This study shall serve as a basis to provide useful actionable information to the crises management and mitigation teams in planning and preparation of effective disaster response and to facilitate the development of future automated systems for handling crises situations

Anticipatory Mobile Computing: A Survey of the State of the Art and Research Challenges

Today's mobile phones are far from mere communication devices they were ten years ago. Equipped with sophisticated sensors and advanced computing hardware, phones can be used to infer users' location, activity, social setting and more. As devices become increasingly intelligent, their capabilities evolve beyond inferring context to predicting it, and then reasoning and acting upon the predicted context. This article provides an overview of the current state of the art in mobile sensing and context prediction paving the way for full-fledged anticipatory mobile computing. We present a survey of phenomena that mobile phones can infer and predict, and offer a description of machine learning techniques used for such predictions. We then discuss proactive decision making and decision delivery via the user-device feedback loop. Finally, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of anticipatory mobile computing.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure

Data Mining in Internet of Things Systems: A Literature Review

The Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud technologies have been the main focus of recent research, allowing for the accumulation of a vast amount of data generated from this diverse environment. These data include without any doubt priceless knowledge if could correctly discovered and correlated in an efficient manner. Data mining algorithms can be applied to the Internet of Things (IoT) to extract hidden information from the massive amounts of data that are generated by IoT and are thought to have high business value. In this paper, the most important data mining approaches covering classification, clustering, association analysis, time series analysis, and outlier analysis from the knowledge will be covered. Additionally, a survey of recent work in in this direction is included. Another significant challenges in the field are collecting, storing, and managing the large number of devices along with their associated features. In this paper, a deep look on the data mining for the IoT platforms will be given concentrating on real applications found in the literatur