Generation and Evaluation of Space-Time Trajectories of Photovoltaic Power

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space-time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space-time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space-time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.Comment: 33 pages, 11 Figure

Robust Legged Robot State Estimation Using Factor Graph Optimization

Legged robots, specifically quadrupeds, are becoming increasingly attractive for industrial applications such as inspection. However, to leave the laboratory and to become useful to an end user requires reliability in harsh conditions. From the perspective of state estimation, it is essential to be able to accurately estimate the robot's state despite challenges such as uneven or slippery terrain, textureless and reflective scenes, as well as dynamic camera occlusions. We are motivated to reduce the dependency on foot contact classifications, which fail when slipping, and to reduce position drift during dynamic motions such as trotting. To this end, we present a factor graph optimization method for state estimation which tightly fuses and smooths inertial navigation, leg odometry and visual odometry. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated using the ANYmal quadruped robot navigating in a realistic outdoor industrial environment. This experiment included trotting, walking, crossing obstacles and ascending a staircase. The proposed approach decreased the relative position error by up to 55% and absolute position error by 76% compared to kinematic-inertial odometry.Comment: 8 pages, 12 figures. Accepted to RA-L + IROS 2019, July 201

Intermittent Gliding in the Hunting Flight of the Kestrel, Falco tinnunculus L.

The hunting flight of the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) consists of short bouts of flight at wind speed against the wind with the eyes in a fixed position relative to the ground, and of short flights from one such position to the next. High speed films taken with a camera in a fixed position of a hunting kestrel of known weight and dimensions, allow estimates to be made of the amount of energy required for this behaviour. A theoretical model shows how a bird could economise by alternating flapping flight with short gliding bouts, without changing the position of the eyes above the ground, by mere displacement of the centre of gravity relative to the head. High speed film data confirm predictions from this model.