Learning user-specific latent influence and susceptibility from information cascades

Predicting cascade dynamics has important implications for understanding information propagation and launching viral marketing. Previous works mainly adopt a pair-wise manner, modeling the propagation probability between pairs of users using n^2 independent parameters for n users. Consequently, these models suffer from severe overfitting problem, specially for pairs of users without direct interactions, limiting their prediction accuracy. Here we propose to model the cascade dynamics by learning two low-dimensional user-specific vectors from observed cascades, capturing their influence and susceptibility respectively. This model requires much less parameters and thus could combat overfitting problem. Moreover, this model could naturally model context-dependent factors like cumulative effect in information propagation. Extensive experiments on synthetic dataset and a large-scale microblogging dataset demonstrate that this model outperforms the existing pair-wise models at predicting cascade dynamics, cascade size, and "who will be retweeted".Comment: from The 29th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2015

Minimizing Polarization and Disagreement in Social Networks

The rise of social media and online social networks has been a disruptive force in society. Opinions are increasingly shaped by interactions on online social media, and social phenomena including disagreement and polarization are now tightly woven into everyday life. In this work we initiate the study of the following question: given $n$ agents, each with its own initial opinion that reflects its core value on a topic, and an opinion dynamics model, what is the structure of a social network that minimizes {\em polarization} and {\em disagreement} simultaneously? This question is central to recommender systems: should a recommender system prefer a link suggestion between two online users with similar mindsets in order to keep disagreement low, or between two users with different opinions in order to expose each to the other's viewpoint of the world, and decrease overall levels of polarization? Our contributions include a mathematical formalization of this question as an optimization problem and an exact, time-efficient algorithm. We also prove that there always exists a network with $O(n/\epsilon^2)$ edges that is a $(1+\epsilon)$ approximation to the optimum. For a fixed graph, we additionally show how to optimize our objective function over the agents' innate opinions in polynomial time. We perform an empirical study of our proposed methods on synthetic and real-world data that verify their value as mining tools to better understand the trade-off between of disagreement and polarization. We find that there is a lot of space to reduce both polarization and disagreement in real-world networks; for instance, on a Reddit network where users exchange comments on politics, our methods achieve a $\sim 60\,000$-fold reduction in polarization and disagreement.Comment: 19 pages (accepted, WWW 2018

Safety management theory and the military expeditionary organization: A critical theoretical reflection

Management of safety within organizations has become a key topic within safety science. Theorizing on this subject covers a diverse pallet of concepts such as “resilience” and “safety management systems”. Recent studies indicate that safety management theory has deficiencies. Our interpretation of these deficiencies is that much confusion originates from the issue that crucial meta-theoretical assumptions are mostly implicit or applied inconsistently. In particular, we argue that these meta-theoretical assumptions are of a systems theoretical nature. Therefore, we provide a framework that will be able to explicate and reflect on systems theoretical assumptions. With this framework, we analyze the ability of two frequently used safety management theories to tackle the problem of managing safety of Dutch military expeditionary organizations. This paper will show that inconsistent and implicit application of systems theoretical assumptions in these safety management theories results in problems to tackle such a practical problem adequately. We conclude with a reflection on the pros and cons of our framework. Also, we suggest particular meta-theoretical aspects that seem to be essential for applying safety management theory to organizations

Some Remarks about the Complexity of Epidemics Management

Recent outbreaks of Ebola, H1N1 and other infectious diseases have shown that the assumptions underlying the established theory of epidemics management are too idealistic. For an improvement of procedures and organizations involved in fighting epidemics, extended models of epidemics management are required. The necessary extensions consist in a representation of the management loop and the potential frictions influencing the loop. The effects of the non-deterministic frictions can be taken into account by including the measures of robustness and risk in the assessment of management options. Thus, besides of the increased structural complexity resulting from the model extensions, the computational complexity of the task of epidemics management - interpreted as an optimization problem - is increased as well. This is a serious obstacle for analyzing the model and may require an additional pre-processing enabling a simplification of the analysis process. The paper closes with an outlook discussing some forthcoming problems

Using 4D BIM in the Retrofit Process of Social Housing

There is a large stock of solid wall homes in the UK presenting poor thermal insulation and low energy performance. Although the UK Government has supported improvement efforts in the area, the identification of appropriate technical solutions that effectively improve the existing stock remains a challenge. BIM offers opportunities for building performance optimisation, through improved design and simulation. This research investigates how BIM could improve the retrofit process for social housing. This paper describes a research project looking into the use of BIM to develop what-if scenarios for retrofitting existing ’no-fines’ solid wall homes. The scenarios enable the analysis of alternative solutions considering costs, energy performance and user disruption. More specifically, this paper focuses on the use of 4D models to evaluate disruption for end users. The research process includes simulations, meetings, interviews, documents, and observations. Results indicate that the development of 4D BIM models supports a better understanding of the retrofitting process on site, enabling the definition of production processes with as minimal disruption as possible for users, whilst still delivering energy-oriented and cost effective solutions