Some Remarks about the Complexity of Epidemics Management

Recent outbreaks of Ebola, H1N1 and other infectious diseases have shown that the assumptions underlying the established theory of epidemics management are too idealistic. For an improvement of procedures and organizations involved in fighting epidemics, extended models of epidemics management are required. The necessary extensions consist in a representation of the management loop and the potential frictions influencing the loop. The effects of the non-deterministic frictions can be taken into account by including the measures of robustness and risk in the assessment of management options. Thus, besides of the increased structural complexity resulting from the model extensions, the computational complexity of the task of epidemics management - interpreted as an optimization problem - is increased as well. This is a serious obstacle for analyzing the model and may require an additional pre-processing enabling a simplification of the analysis process. The paper closes with an outlook discussing some forthcoming problems

LTL Control in Uncertain Environments with Probabilistic Satisfaction Guarantees

We present a method to generate a robot control strategy that maximizes the probability to accomplish a task. The task is given as a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formula over a set of properties that can be satisfied at the regions of a partitioned environment. We assume that the probabilities with which the properties are satisfied at the regions are known, and the robot can determine the truth value of a proposition only at the current region. Motivated by several results on partitioned-based abstractions, we assume that the motion is performed on a graph. To account for noisy sensors and actuators, we assume that a control action enables several transitions with known probabilities. We show that this problem can be reduced to the problem of generating a control policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) such that the probability of satisfying an LTL formula over its states is maximized. We provide a complete solution for the latter problem that builds on existing results from probabilistic model checking. We include an illustrative case study.Comment: Technical Report accompanying IFAC 201

Sensor Synthesis for POMDPs with Reachability Objectives

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are widely used in probabilistic planning problems in which an agent interacts with an environment using noisy and imprecise sensors. We study a setting in which the sensors are only partially defined and the goal is to synthesize "weakest" additional sensors, such that in the resulting POMDP, there is a small-memory policy for the agent that almost-surely (with probability~1) satisfies a reachability objective. We show that the problem is NP-complete, and present a symbolic algorithm by encoding the problem into SAT instances. We illustrate trade-offs between the amount of memory of the policy and the number of additional sensors on a simple example. We have implemented our approach and consider three classical POMDP examples from the literature, and show that in all the examples the number of sensors can be significantly decreased (as compared to the existing solutions in the literature) without increasing the complexity of the policies.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1511.0845

ARBEITSBEREICH WISSENSBASIERTE SYSTEME TEAM PROGRAMMING IN GOLOG UNDER PARTIAL OBSERVABILITY

Abstract. We present and explore the agent programming language TEAMGOLOG, which is a novel approach to programming a team of cooperative agents under partial observability. Every agent is associated with a partial control program in Golog, which is completed by the TEAMGOLOG interpreter in an optimal way by assuming a decision-theoretic semantics. The approach is based on the key concepts of a synchronization state and a communication state, which allow the agents to passively resp. actively coordinate their behavior, while keeping their belief states, observations, and activities invisible to the other agents. We show the practical usefulness of the TEAMGOLOG approach in a rescue simulated domain. We describe the algorithms behind the TEAMGOLOG interpreter and provide a prototype implementation. We also show through experimental results that the TEAMGOLOG approach outperforms a standard greedy one in the rescue simulated domain