Decentralized Clustering and Linking by Networked Agents

We consider the problem of decentralized clustering and estimation over multi-task networks, where agents infer and track different models of interest. The agents do not know beforehand which model is generating their own data. They also do not know which agents in their neighborhood belong to the same cluster. We propose a decentralized clustering algorithm aimed at identifying and forming clusters of agents of similar objectives, and at guiding cooperation to enhance the inference performance. One key feature of the proposed technique is the integration of the learning and clustering tasks into a single strategy. We analyze the performance of the procedure and show that the error probabilities of types I and II decay exponentially to zero with the step-size parameter. While links between agents following different objectives are ignored in the clustering process, we nevertheless show how to exploit these links to relay critical information across the network for enhanced performance. Simulation results illustrate the performance of the proposed method in comparison to other useful techniques

Matrix completion and extrapolation via kernel regression

Matrix completion and extrapolation (MCEX) are dealt with here over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) in order to account for prior information present in the available data. Aiming at a faster and low-complexity solver, the task is formulated as a kernel ridge regression. The resultant MCEX algorithm can also afford online implementation, while the class of kernel functions also encompasses several existing approaches to MC with prior information. Numerical tests on synthetic and real datasets show that the novel approach performs faster than widespread methods such as alternating least squares (ALS) or stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and that the recovery error is reduced, especially when dealing with noisy data

Heuristic Strategies in Finance – An Overview

This paper presents a survey on the application of heuristic optimization techniques in the broad field of finance. Heuristic algorithms have been extensively used to tackle complex financial problems, which traditional optimization techniques cannot efficiently solve. Heuristic optimization techniques are suitable for non-linear and non-convex multi-objective optimization problems. Due to their stochastic features and their ability to iteratively update candidate solutions, heuristics can explore the entire search space and reliably approximate the global optimum. This overview reviews the main heuristic strategies and their application to portfolio selection, model estimation, model selection and financial clustering.finance, heuristic optimization techniques, portfolio management, model selection, model estimation, clustering

Online Machine Learning for Graph Topology Identification from Multiple Time Series

High dimensional time series data are observed in many complex systems. In networked data, some of the time series are influenced by other time series. Identifying these relations encoded in a graph structure or topology among the time series is of paramount interest in certain applications since the identified structure can provide insights about the underlying system and can assist in inference tasks. In practice, the underlying topology is usually sparse, that is, not all the participating time series in influence each other. The goal of this dissertation pertains to study the problem of sparse topology identification under various settings. Topology identification from time series is a challenging task. The first major challenge in topology identification is that the assumption of static topology does not hold always in practice since most of the practical systems are evolving with time. For instance, in econometrics, social networks, etc., the relations among the time series can change over time. Identifying the topologies of such dynamic networks is a major challenge. The second major challenge is that in most practical scenarios, the data is not available at once - it is coming in a streaming fashion. Hence, batch approaches are either not applicable or they become computationally expensive since a batch algorithm is needed to be run when a new datum becomes available. The third challenge is that the multi-dimensional time series data can contain missing values due faulty sensors, privacy and security reasons, or due to saving energy. We address the aforementioned challenges in this dissertation by proposing online/-batch algorithms to solve the problem of time-varying topology identification. A model based on vector autoregressive (VAR) process is adopted initially. The parameters of the VAR model reveal the topology of the underlying network. First, two online algorithms are proposed for the case of streaming data. Next, using the same VAR model, two online algorithms under the framework of online optimization are presented to track the time-varying topologies. To evaluate the performance of propose online algorithms, we show that both the proposed algorithms incur a sublinear static regret. To characterize the performance theoretically in time-varying scenarios, a bound on the dynamic regret for one of the proposed algorithms (TIRSO) is derived. Next, using a structural equation model (SEM) for topology identification, an online algorithm for tracking time-varying topologies is proposed, and a bound on the dynamic regret is also derived for the proposed algorithm. Moreover, using a non-stationary VAR model, an algorithm for dynamic topology identification and breakpoint detection is also proposed, where the notion of local structural breakpoint is introduced to accommodate the concept of breakpoint where instead of the whole topology, only a few edges vary. Finally, the problem of tracking VAR-based time-varying topologies with missing data is investigated. Online algorithms are proposed where the joint signal and topology estimation is carried out. Dynamic regret analysis is also presented for the proposed algorithm. For all the previously mentioned works, simulation tests about the proposed algorithms are also presented and discussed in this dissertation. The numerical results of the proposed algorithms corroborate with the theoretical analysis presented in this dissertation.publishedVersio

Approaches for Outlier Detection in Sparse High-Dimensional Regression Models

Modern regression studies often encompass a very large number of potential predictors, possibly larger than the sample size, and sometimes growing with the sample size itself. This increases the chances that a substantial portion of the predictors is redundant, as well as the risk of data contamination. Tackling these problems is of utmost importance to facilitate scientific discoveries, since model estimates are highly sensitive both to the choice of predictors and to the presence of outliers. In this thesis, we contribute to this area considering the problem of robust model selection in a variety of settings, where outliers may arise both in the response and the predictors. Our proposals simplify model interpretation, guarantee predictive performance, and allow us to study and control the influence of outlying cases on the fit. First, we consider the co-occurrence of multiple mean-shift and variance-inflation outliers in low-dimensional linear models. We rely on robust estimation techniques to identify outliers of each type, exclude mean-shift outliers, and use restricted maximum likelihood estimation to down-weight and accommodate variance-inflation outliers into the model fit. Second, we extend our setting to high-dimensional linear models. We show that mean-shift and variance-inflation outliers can be modeled as additional fixed and random components, respectively, and evaluated independently. Specifically, we perform feature selection and mean-shift outlier detection through a robust class of nonconcave penalization methods, and variance-inflation outlier detection through the penalization of the restricted posterior mode. The resulting approach satisfies a robust oracle property for feature selection in the presence of data contamination – which allows the number of features to exponentially increase with the sample size – and detects truly outlying cases of each type with asymptotic probability one. This provides an optimal trade-off between a high breakdown point and efficiency. Third, focusing on high-dimensional linear models affected by meanshift outliers, we develop a general framework in which L0-constraints coupled with mixed-integer programming techniques are used to perform simultaneous feature selection and outlier detection with provably optimal guarantees. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a robustly strong oracle property, where again the number of features can increase exponentially with the sample size, and prove optimality for parameter estimation and the resulting breakdown point. Finally, we consider generalized linear models and rely on logistic slippage to perform outlier detection and removal in binary classification. Here we use L0-constraints and mixed-integer conic programming techniques to solve the underlying double combinatorial problem of feature selection and outlier detection, and the framework allows us again to pursue optimality guarantees. For all the proposed approaches, we also provide computationally lean heuristic algorithms, tuning procedures, and diagnostic tools which help to guide the analysis. We consider several real-world applications, including the study of the relationships between childhood obesity and the human microbiome, and of the main drivers of honey bee loss. All methods developed and data used, as well as the source code to replicate our analyses, are publicly available

Diffusion-Based Adaptive Distributed Detection: Steady-State Performance in the Slow Adaptation Regime

This work examines the close interplay between cooperation and adaptation for distributed detection schemes over fully decentralized networks. The combined attributes of cooperation and adaptation are necessary to enable networks of detectors to continually learn from streaming data and to continually track drifts in the state of nature when deciding in favor of one hypothesis or another. The results in the paper establish a fundamental scaling law for the steady-state probabilities of miss-detection and false-alarm in the slow adaptation regime, when the agents interact with each other according to distributed strategies that employ small constant step-sizes. The latter are critical to enable continuous adaptation and learning. The work establishes three key results. First, it is shown that the output of the collaborative process at each agent has a steady-state distribution. Second, it is shown that this distribution is asymptotically Gaussian in the slow adaptation regime of small step-sizes. And third, by carrying out a detailed large deviations analysis, closed-form expressions are derived for the decaying rates of the false-alarm and miss-detection probabilities. Interesting insights are gained. In particular, it is verified that as the step-size $\mu$ decreases, the error probabilities are driven to zero exponentially fast as functions of $1/\mu$, and that the error exponents increase linearly in the number of agents. It is also verified that the scaling laws governing errors of detection and errors of estimation over networks behave very differently, with the former having an exponential decay proportional to $1/\mu$, while the latter scales linearly with decay proportional to $\mu$. It is shown that the cooperative strategy allows each agent to reach the same detection performance, in terms of detection error exponents, of a centralized stochastic-gradient solution.Comment: The paper will appear in IEEE Trans. Inf. Theor

An Implicit Form of Krasulina's k-PCA Update without the Orthonormality Constraint

We shed new insights on the two commonly used updates for the online $k$-PCA problem, namely, Krasulina's and Oja's updates. We show that Krasulina's update corresponds to a projected gradient descent step on the Stiefel manifold of the orthonormal $k$-frames, while Oja's update amounts to a gradient descent step using the unprojected gradient. Following these observations, we derive a more \emph{implicit} form of Krasulina's $k$-PCA update, i.e. a version that uses the information of the future gradient as much as possible. Most interestingly, our implicit Krasulina update avoids the costly QR-decomposition step by bypassing the orthonormality constraint. We show that the new update in fact corresponds to an online EM step applied to a probabilistic $k$-PCA model. The probabilistic view of the updates allows us to combine multiple models in a distributed setting. We show experimentally that the implicit Krasulina update yields superior convergence while being significantly faster. We also give strong evidence that the new update can benefit from parallelism and is more stable w.r.t. tuning of the learning rate

Online Joint Topology Identification and Signal Estimation with Inexact Proximal Online Gradient Descent

Identifying the topology that underlies a set of time series is useful for tasks such as prediction, denoising, and data completion. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model based topologies capture dependencies among time series, and are often inferred from observed spatio-temporal data. When the data are affected by noise and/or missing samples, the tasks of topology identification and signal recovery (reconstruction) have to be performed jointly. Additional challenges arise when i) the underlying topology is time-varying, ii) data become available sequentially, and iii) no delay is tolerated. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes two online algorithms to estimate the VAR model-based topologies. The proposed algorithms have constant complexity per iteration, which makes them interesting for big data scenarios. They also enjoy complementary merits in terms of complexity and performance. A performance guarantee is derived for one of the algorithms in the form of a dynamic regret bound. Numerical tests are also presented, showcasing the ability of the proposed algorithms to track the time-varying topologies with missing data in an online fashion.Comment: 14 pages including supplementary material, 2 figures, submitted to IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin