2,268 research outputs found
Selective machine learning of doubly robust functionals
While model selection is a well-studied topic in parametric and nonparametric
regression or density estimation, selection of possibly high-dimensional
nuisance parameters in semiparametric problems is far less developed. In this
paper, we propose a selective machine learning framework for making inferences
about a finite-dimensional functional defined on a semiparametric model, when
the latter admits a doubly robust estimating function and several candidate
machine learning algorithms are available for estimating the nuisance
parameters. We introduce two new selection criteria for bias reduction in
estimating the functional of interest, each based on a novel definition of
pseudo-risk for the functional that embodies the double robustness property and
thus is used to select the pair of learners that is nearest to fulfilling this
property. We establish an oracle property for a multi-fold cross-validation
version of the new selection criteria which states that our empirical criteria
perform nearly as well as an oracle with a priori knowledge of the pseudo-risk
for each pair of candidate learners. We also describe a smooth approximation to
the selection criteria which allows for valid post-selection inference.
Finally, we apply the approach to model selection of a semiparametric estimator
of average treatment effect given an ensemble of candidate machine learners to
account for confounding in an observational study
Mean Estimation from One-Bit Measurements
We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a symmetric log-concave
distribution under the constraint that only a single bit per sample from this
distribution is available to the estimator. We study the mean squared error as
a function of the sample size (and hence the number of bits). We consider three
settings: first, a centralized setting, where an encoder may release bits
given a sample of size , and for which there is no asymptotic penalty for
quantization; second, an adaptive setting in which each bit is a function of
the current observation and previously recorded bits, where we show that the
optimal relative efficiency compared to the sample mean is precisely the
efficiency of the median; lastly, we show that in a distributed setting where
each bit is only a function of a local sample, no estimator can achieve optimal
efficiency uniformly over the parameter space. We additionally complement our
results in the adaptive setting by showing that \emph{one} round of adaptivity
is sufficient to achieve optimal mean-square error
Pinsker estimators for local helioseismology
A major goal of helioseismology is the three-dimensional reconstruction of
the three velocity components of convective flows in the solar interior from
sets of wave travel-time measurements. For small amplitude flows, the forward
problem is described in good approximation by a large system of convolution
equations. The input observations are highly noisy random vectors with a known
dense covariance matrix. This leads to a large statistical linear inverse
problem.
Whereas for deterministic linear inverse problems several computationally
efficient minimax optimal regularization methods exist, only one
minimax-optimal linear estimator exists for statistical linear inverse
problems: the Pinsker estimator. However, it is often computationally
inefficient because it requires a singular value decomposition of the forward
operator or it is not applicable because of an unknown noise covariance matrix,
so it is rarely used for real-world problems. These limitations do not apply in
helioseismology. We present a simplified proof of the optimality properties of
the Pinsker estimator and show that it yields significantly better
reconstructions than traditional inversion methods used in helioseismology,
i.e.\ Regularized Least Squares (Tikhonov regularization) and SOLA (approximate
inverse) methods.
Moreover, we discuss the incorporation of the mass conservation constraint in
the Pinsker scheme using staggered grids. With this improvement we can
reconstruct not only horizontal, but also vertical velocity components that are
much smaller in amplitude
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