Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth

Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize under Dutch meteorological conditions. The models predict yield under potential conditions, i.e. temperature- and radiation limited yield, assuming other production factors to be optimal.After a review of concerns voiced in model-based applied research, the simulation models were described in a systematic manner to simplify access to the software code. A model analysis showed that the models contain switches, describing abrupt changes occurring in the crop (e.g. change of temperature driven leaf area growth to photosynthesis driven leaf growth; onset of leaf senescence). Some switches introduced discontinuities in the relation between state variables and parameters. Such properties make non-standard approaches for parameter estimation necessary.Subsequently, the empirical basis of the simulation model was reviewed in terms of parameter values and their uncertainty, as derived from literature. The results were used to evaluate the predictive quality given the parameter uncertainty. Predictive quality given the parameter uncertainty was low; parameter estimation to adapt the model to local conditions was necessary.Different procedures to calibrate the models were discussed and presented. For the combination of models and the data available in this case study, parameters had to be selected. Selection was based on the ranking of the parameters on the basis of their contribution to output uncertainty. Non-selected parameters were fixed at their default value. Calibration using a controlled random search algorithm for a point estimation procedure was executed for both models. In the estimation procedure a compromise was sought between different types of problems: estimation bias, parameter identifiability and local minima.The parameter estimates were used to generate predictions. A comparison between predictions and measured data was used to evaluate the predictive quality of the models in terms that are relevant for the application. To do so, the concept of a link hypothesis was introduced. It defines the anticipated relation between prediction and measurement. Deviations from the anticipated relation were used to quantify predictive quality. Predictive quality was shown to depend strongly on the procedure used to generate predictions, i.e. procedures combining results based on multiple calibration sets yielded better predictions than predictions based on a single data set.To translate predictive quality in terms of usefulness of the simulation model prediction errors were compared to those of benchmark predictors (simple statistical predictors). LINTUL and SUCROS87 differed in their performance in relation to the benchmark predictors.Procedures developed in this thesis suggested that facilitating model evaluation requires actions that are not easily executed within the context of project-based, often time-limited, applied research. Investment in the methodological basis and in the empirical basis of the models prior to their application will be required.</p

Kant in English: An Index

Kant in English: An Index / By Daniel Fidel Ferrer. ©Daniel Fidel Ferrer, 2017. Pages 1 to 2675. Includes bibliographical references. Index. 1. Ontology. 2. Metaphysics. 3. Philosophy, German. 4. Thought and thinking. 5. Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804. 6. Practice (Philosophy). 7. Philosophy and civilization. 8). Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804 -- Wörterbuch. 9. Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804 -- Concordances. 10. Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804 -- 1889-1976 – Indexes. I. Ferrer, Daniel Fidel, 1952-. MOTTO As a famous motto calls us back to Kant, Otto Liebmann’s writes (Kant and His Epigones of 1865): “Also muss auf Kant zurückgegangen werden.” “Therefore, must return to Kant.” Table of Contents 1). Preface and Introduction. 2. Background on Kant’s Philosophy (hermeneutical historical situation). 3). Main Index (pages, 25 to 2676). Preface and Introduction Total words indexed: 58,928; for the 12 volumes that are in the MAIN INDEX are indexed: pages 1 to 7321. This monograph by Daniel Fidel Ferrer is 2676 pages in total. The following is a machine index of 12 volumes written by Immanuel Kant and translated from German into English. Everything is indexed including the text, title pages, preface, notes, editorials, glossary, indexes, biographical notes, and even some typos. No stop words or words removed from this index. There are some German words in the text, bibliographies, and in the glossaries (also included in Main Index). Titles in English of Kant’s writings for this index (pages 1 to 7321). Anthropology, History, and Education [Starts on page 1 Correspondence [Starts on page 313 Critique of Pure Reason [Starts page 971 Critique of the Power of Judgment [Starts on page 1771 Lectures on Logic [Starts on page 2247 Lectures on Metaphysics [Starts on page 2991 Notes and Fragments [Starts on page 3670 Opus Postumum [Starts on page 4374 Practical Philosophy [Starts on page 4741 Religion and Rational Theology [Starts on page 5446 Theoretical Philosophy after 1781 [Starts on page 5990 Theoretical Philosophy, 1755-1770 [Starts on page 6541 Universal Natural History and Theory of the Heavens or An Essay on the Constitution and the Mechanical Origin of the Entire Structure of the Universe Based on Newtonian Principles [Starts on page 7162 The whole single file which includes all of these books ends on page 7321. 12 volumes are pages 1 to 7321. These actual texts of these books by Kant are not include here because of copyright. This is only an index of these 7321 pages by Immanuel Kant. There are some German words in the text and in the glossaries, etc. Searching this Main Index. Please note the German words that start with umlauts are at the end of the index because of machine sorting of the words. Starting with the German word “ße” on page 2674 page of this book (see in Main Index). Use the FIND FUNCTION for all examples of the words or names you are searching. Examples from the Main Index mendacium, 5171, 5329, 5389 mendation, 220 mendax, 2702, 2800 mended, 360 Mendel, 416, 925, 965 Mendelian, 2212 Mendels, 345, 363, 417, 458, 560, 572, 588, 926, 928, 929 MENDELSSOHN, 925 Mendelssohn, 8, 9, 19, 98, 99, 100, 101

Kant in English: An Index

Kant in English: An Index / By Daniel Fidel Ferrer. ©Daniel Fidel Ferrer, 2017. Pages 1 to 2675. Includes bibliographical references. Index. 1. Ontology. 2. Metaphysics. 3. Philosophy, German. 4. Thought and thinking. 5. Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804. 6. Practice (Philosophy). 7. Philosophy and civilization. 8). Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804 -- Wörterbuch. 9. Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804 -- Concordances. 10. Kant, Immanuel, 1724-1804 -- 1889-1976 – Indexes. I. Ferrer, Daniel Fidel, 1952-. MOTTO As a famous motto calls us back to Kant, Otto Liebmann’s writes (Kant and His Epigones of 1865): “Also muss auf Kant zurückgegangen werden.” “Therefore, must return to Kant.” Table of Contents 1). Preface and Introduction. 2. Background on Kant’s Philosophy (hermeneutical historical situation). 3). Main Index (pages, 25 to 2676). Preface and Introduction Total words indexed: 58,928; for the 12 volumes that are in the MAIN INDEX are indexed: pages 1 to 7321. This monograph by Daniel Fidel Ferrer is 2676 pages in total. The following is a machine index of 12 volumes written by Immanuel Kant and translated from German into English. Everything is indexed including the text, title pages, preface, notes, editorials, glossary, indexes, biographical notes, and even some typos. No stop words or words removed from this index. There are some German words in the text, bibliographies, and in the glossaries (also included in Main Index). Titles in English of Kant’s writings for this index (pages 1 to 7321). Anthropology, History, and Education [Starts on page 1 Correspondence [Starts on page 313 Critique of Pure Reason [Starts page 971 Critique of the Power of Judgment [Starts on page 1771 Lectures on Logic [Starts on page 2247 Lectures on Metaphysics [Starts on page 2991 Notes and Fragments [Starts on page 3670 Opus Postumum [Starts on page 4374 Practical Philosophy [Starts on page 4741 Religion and Rational Theology [Starts on page 5446 Theoretical Philosophy after 1781 [Starts on page 5990 Theoretical Philosophy, 1755-1770 [Starts on page 6541 Universal Natural History and Theory of the Heavens or An Essay on the Constitution and the Mechanical Origin of the Entire Structure of the Universe Based on Newtonian Principles [Starts on page 7162 The whole single file which includes all of these books ends on page 7321. 12 volumes are pages 1 to 7321. These actual texts of these books by Kant are not include here because of copyright. This is only an index of these 7321 pages by Immanuel Kant. There are some German words in the text and in the glossaries, etc. Searching this Main Index. Please note the German words that start with umlauts are at the end of the index because of machine sorting of the words. Starting with the German word “ße” on page 2674 page of this book (see in Main Index). Use the FIND FUNCTION for all examples of the words or names you are searching. Examples from the Main Index mendacium, 5171, 5329, 5389 mendation, 220 mendax, 2702, 2800 mended, 360 Mendel, 416, 925, 965 Mendelian, 2212 Mendels, 345, 363, 417, 458, 560, 572, 588, 926, 928, 929 MENDELSSOHN, 925 Mendelssohn, 8, 9, 19, 98, 99, 100, 101