Local Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Automatic Approaches

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component in the efficient management of power systems, which has been studied intensively over the past 50 years. The emerging development of smart grid technologies is posing new challenges as well as opportunities to STLF. Load data, collected at higher geographical granularity and frequency through thousands of smart meters, allows us to build a more accurate local load forecasting model, which is essential for local optimization of power load through demand side management. With this paper, we show how several existing approaches for STLF are not applicable on local load forecasting, either because of long training time, unstable optimization process, or sensitivity to hyper-parameters. Accordingly, we select five models suitable for local STFL, which can be trained on different time-series with limited intervention from the user. The experiment, which consists of 40 time-series collected at different locations and aggregation levels, revealed that yearly pattern and temperature information are only useful for high aggregation level STLF. On local STLF task, the modified version of double seasonal Holt-Winter proposed in this paper performs relatively well with only 3 months of training data, compared to more complex methods

Hierarchical and Distributed Architecture for Large-Scale Residential Demand Response Management

The implementation of smart grid brings several challenges to the power system. The ‘prosumer’ concept, proposed by the smart grid, allows small-scale ‘nano-grids’ to buy or sell electric power at their own discretion. One major problem in integrating prosumers is that they tend to follow the same pattern of generation and consumption, which is un-optimal for grid operations. One tool to optimize grid operations is demand response (DR). DR attempts to optimize by altering the power consumption patterns. DR is an integrated tool of the smart grid. FERC Order No. 2222 caters for distributed energy resources, including demand response resources, in participating in energy markets. However, DR contribution of an average residential energy consumer is insignificant. Most residential energy consumers pay a flat price for their energy usage and the established market for residential DR is quite small. In this dissertation, a survey is carried out on the current state-of-the-art in DR research and generalizations of the mathematical models are made. Additionally, a service provider model is developed along with an incentive program and user interfaces (UI). These UIs and incentive program are designed to be attractive and easily comprehended by a large customer base. Furthermore, customer behavior models are developed that characterize the potential customer base, allowing a demand response aggregator to understand and quantify the quality of the customer. Optimization methods for DR management with various characteristics are also explored in this dissertation. Moreover, A scalable demand response management framework that can incorporate millions of participants in the program is introduced. The framework is based on a hierarchical architecture. To improve DR management, hierarchical load forecasting method is studied. Specifically, optimal combination method for hierarchical forecast reconciliation is applied to the DR program. It is shown that the optimal combination for reconciliation of hierarchical predictions could reduce the stress levels of the consumer close to the ideal values for all scenarios

The Weighted Support Vector Machine Based on Hybrid Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Icing Prediction of Transmission Line

Not only can the icing coat on transmission line cause the electrical fault of gap discharge and icing flashover but also it will lead to the mechanical failure of tower, conductor, insulators, and others. It will bring great harm to the people’s daily life and work. Thus, accurate prediction of ice thickness has important significance for power department to control the ice disaster effectively. Based on the analysis of standard support vector machine, this paper presents a weighted support vector machine regression model based on the similarity (WSVR). According to the different importance of samples, this paper introduces the weighted support vector machine and optimizes its parameters by hybrid swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with the particle swarm and ant colony (PSO-ACO), which improves the generalization ability of the model. In the case study, the actual data of ice thickness and climate in a certain area of Hunan province have been used to predict the icing thickness of the area, which verifies the validity and applicability of this proposed method. The predicted results show that the intelligent model proposed in this paper has higher precision and stronger generalization ability

Embedded Applications of MS-PSO-BP on Wind/Storage Power Forecasting

Higher proportion wind power penetration has great impact on grid operation and dispatching, intelligent hybrid algorithm is proposed to cope with inaccurate schedule forecast. Firstly, hybrid algorithm of MS-PSO-BP (Mathematical Statistics, Particle Swarm Optimization, Back Propagation neural network) is proposed to improve the wind power system prediction accuracy. MS is used to optimize artificial neural network training sample, PSO-BP (particle swarm combined with back propagation neural network) is employed on prediction error dynamic revision. From the angle of root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and convergence rate, analysis and comparison of several intelligent algorithms (BP, RBP, PSO-BP, MS-BP, MS-RBP, MS-PSO-BP) are done to verify the availability of the proposed prediction method. Further, due to the physical function of energy storage in improving accuracy of schedule pre-fabrication, a mathematical statistical method is proposed to determine the optimal capacity of the storage batteries in power forecasting based on the historical statistical data of wind farm. Algorithm feasibility is validated by application of experiment simulation and comparative analysis

Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Based On Cascade Forward Backpropagation Neural Network

Nowadays, the Electrical System has an important role in all sectors of life. Electricity has a strategic role. Accuracy and reliability in electricity load forecasting is a great key that can help electricity companies in supplying electricity efficiency, hence, reducing wasted energy. In addition, electricity load forecasting can also help electricity companies to determine the purchase price and power generation. Long-term forecasting is a method of forecasting with a span of more than one year. The historical data will be a reference in solving the problems. This research propose the concept of cascade forward backpropagation for long-term load forecasting. The advantage of this concept is that it can accommodate non-linear conditions without ignoring the linear conditions. This study compared the results of the original data, Feed Forward Backpropagation Neural Network (FFBNN) and Cascade Forward Backpropagation Neural Network (CFBNN). The results were measured by comparing Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Applications of Computational Intelligence to Power Systems

In power system operation and control, the basic goal is to provide users with quality electricity power in an economically rational degree for power systems, and to ensure their stability and reliability. However, the increased interconnection and loading of the power system along with deregulation and environmental concerns has brought new challenges for electric power system operation, control, and automation. In the liberalised electricity market, the operation and control of a power system has become a complex process because of the complexity in modelling and uncertainties. Computational intelligence (CI) is a family of modern tools for solving complex problems that are difficult to solve using conventional techniques, as these methods are based on several requirements that may not be true all of the time. Developing solutions with these “learning-based” tools offers the following two major advantages: the development time is much shorter than when using more traditional approaches, and the systems are very robust, being relatively insensitive to noisy and/or missing data/information, known as uncertainty

A Comprehensive Survey on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Its Applications

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a heuristic global optimization method, proposed originally by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995. It is now one of the most commonly used optimization techniques. This survey presented a comprehensive investigation of PSO. On one hand, we provided advances with PSO, including its modifications (including quantum-behaved PSO, bare-bones PSO, chaotic PSO, and fuzzy PSO), population topology (as fully connected, von Neumann, ring, star, random, etc.), hybridization (with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, Tabu search, artificial immune system, ant colony algorithm, artificial bee colony, differential evolution, harmonic search, and biogeography-based optimization), extensions (to multiobjective, constrained, discrete, and binary optimization), theoretical analysis (parameter selection and tuning, and convergence analysis), and parallel implementation (in multicore, multiprocessor, GPU, and cloud computing forms). On the other hand, we offered a survey on applications of PSO to the following eight fields: electrical and electronic engineering, automation control systems, communication theory, operations research, mechanical engineering, fuel and energy, medicine, chemistry, and biology. It is hoped that this survey would be beneficial for the researchers studying PSO algorithms

Prediction short-term photovoltaic power using improved chicken swarm optimizer - Extreme learning machine model

Photovoltaic power generation is greatly affected by weather conditions while the photovoltaic power has a certain negative impact on the power grid. The power sector takes certain measures to abandon photovoltaic power generation, thus limiting the development of clean energy power generation. This study is to propose an accurate short-term photovoltaic power prediction method. A new short-term photovoltaic power output prediction model is proposed Based on extreme learning machine and intelligent optimizer. Firstly, the input of the model is determined by correlation coefficient method. Then the chicken swarm optimizer is improved to strengthen the convergence. Secondly, the improved chicken swarm optimizer is used to optimize the weights and the extreme learning machine thresholds to improve the prediction effect. Finally, the improved chicken swarm optimizer extreme learning machine model is used to predict the photovoltaic power under different weather conditions. The testing results show that the average mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error of improved chicken swarm optimizer - extreme learning machine model are 5.54% and 3.08%. The proposed method is of great significance for the economic dispatch of power systems and the development of clean energy