23 research outputs found

    Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

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    In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i) downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii) running models of tephra dispersal, iii) plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv) publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed

    Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

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    Modelling ash cloud dispersion and the impact of ash aggregation during volcanic eruptions

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    Improvements for characterizing eruption processes are made commonly through field or remote-sensing measurements, lab experiments and numerical models. However, the main volcanological parameters inter-dependency makes challenging the assessment of tephra dispersion and sedimentation, from which mass eruption rate, total erupted mass, and Total Grain-Size Distribution (TGSD) are typically estimated. This thesis aims at better constraining Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) and in particular the TGSD, usually derived from field sample analysis. The estimation of very fine ash (i.e. < 30 μm) fraction, within the TGSD, commonly suffers from the lack of distal field data, especially for basaltic eruptions. Besides, particle-particle aggregation affects ash dispersal and deposition. Although numerical simulations can account for ash aggregation, they need an accurate TSGD as input. Here, I report the use of the FALL3D model with airborne and ground-based data to quantify i) the very fine ash and the effect on the results and ii) the occurrence of ash aggregation during ash transport. I focus on the integration of field and satellite data to better estimate the TGSD and the PM10 fraction especially. The methodology, which integrates field, ground-based and satellite measurements to improve the TGSD characterization, is applied first to the 23rd February 2013 Etna paroxysm, then to the 23rd November 2013 Etna eruption. Indeed, these eruptions benefited from south-westerly winds dispersing tephra towards the Puglia region (southern Italy; ~410 km from the source), allowing collection of field samples to very distal areas. Then, I studied ash aggregation processes characterizing the explosive eruption of La Soufrière Saint Vincent on 26th April 1979. During this event, a significant aggregate fraction was observed contributing to premature tephra fallout from the vent to Bequia Island (36 km southwards). I investigated the effect of various TGSD together with different aggregation schemes on the resulting tephra loading and ash dispersal

    Examples of multi-sensor determination of eruptive source parameters of explosive events at mount etna

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    International audienceMulti-sensor strategies are key to the real-time determination of eruptive source parameters (ESPs) of explosive eruptions necessary to forecast accurately both tephra dispersal and deposition. To explore the capacity of these strategies in various eruptive conditions, we analyze data acquiredby two Doppler radars, ground- and satellite-based infrared sensors, one infrasound array, visible video-monitoring cameras as well as data from tephra-fallout deposits associated with a weak and a strong paroxysmal event at Mount Etna (Italy). We find that the different sensors provide complementary observations that should be critically analyzed and combined to provide comprehensive estimates of ESPs. First, all measurements of plume height agree during the strong paroxysmal activity considered, whereas some discrepancies are found for the weak paroxysm due to rapid plume and cloud dilution. Second, the event duration, key to convert the total erupted mass (TEM) in the mass eruption rate (MER) and vice versa, varies depending on the sensor used, providing information on different phases of the paroxysm (i.e., unsteady lava fountaining, lava fountain-fed tephra plume, waning phase associated with plume and cloud expansion in the atmosphere). As a result, TEM and MER derived from different sensors also correspond to the different phases of the paroxysms. Finally, satellite retrievals for grain-size can be combined with radar data to provide a first approximation of total grain-size distribution (TGSD) in near real-time. Such a TGSD shows a promising agreement with the TGSD derived from the combination of satellite data and whole deposit grain-size distribution (WDGSD)

    Toward an improved representation of middle atmospheric dynamics thanks to the ARISE project

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    This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions

    Improving Forecasts of Volcanic Clouds: An Analysis of Observations and Emission Source Term Methods

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    Volcanic eruptions can occur with little or no warning and explosively inject dense ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2) clouds high into the atmosphere. I investigated different types of observations and analysis methods used to monitor and quantify volcanic ash and SO2 clouds. I begin with an analysis of the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, employing ash cloud transport modeling capabilities I developed for the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5). The emission source terms describing the initial state of the Eyjafjallajökull ash clouds were estimated using radar observations of the ash cloud’s initial injection altitude. Results of the initial simulations agreed with operational ash forecasts from the time of the eruption and with many other published studies, but showed notable disagreement with satellite observations. The emission source term was estimated using an alternative approach, yielding simulations that better matched satellite observations. I used the result to highlight limitations of radar observations not accounted for in previous studies of the Eyjafjallajökull ash clouds. UV satellite observations are often used to monitor and quantify volcanic clouds of ash and SO2. I tested the limitations of the OMPS SO2 satellite observations using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The framework used GEOS-5 simulations of the atmospheric composition in the wake of a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption to generate synthetic top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiances. The TOA radiances served as input to the OMPS SO2 retrieval. In comparing the OMPS retrieval SO2 to the original GEOS-5 SO2, I found that the sulfate aerosols and ash can cause the OMPS SO2 retrieval to underestimate the total SO2 burden. These effects were amplified at increased satellite viewing angles. I finish my analysis by looking at observations from the satellite-based Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS), where I show that even under the time constraints of an operational forecast, the available CATS observations were able to improve forecasts of volcanic SO2 clouds

    Volcanic Processes Monitoring and Hazard Assessment Using Integration of Remote Sensing and Ground-Based Techniques

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    The monitoring of active volcanoes is a complex task based on multidisciplinary and integrated analyses that use ground, drones and satellite monitoring devices. Over time, and with the development of new technologies and increasing frequency of acquisition, the use of remote sensing to accomplish this important task has grown enormously. This is especially so with the use of drones and satellites for classifying eruptive events and detecting the opening of new vents, the spreading of lava flows on the surface or ash plumes in the atmosphere, the fallout of tephra on the ground, the intrusion of new magma within the volcano edifice, and the deformation preceding impending eruptions, and many other factors. The main challenge in using remote sensing techniques is to develop automated and reliable systems that may assist the decision maker in volcano monitoring, hazard assessment and risk reduction. The integration with ground-based techniques represents a valuable additional aspect that makes the proposed methods more robust and reinforces the results obtained. This collection of papers is focused on several active volcanoes, such as Stromboli, Etna, and Volcano in Italy; the Long Valley caldera and Kilauea volcano in the USA; and Cotopaxi in Ecuador

    Modeling strategies for volcanic ash dispersal and management of impacts on civil aviation

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    During April-May 2010, the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland caused the larger breakdown of civil aviation after World War II. Although the eruption was weak in intensity, the dispersal of volcanic ash clouds over northern and central Europe resulted in more than 100.000 flights canceled and caused over USD 1.7 billion economical losses. This event and its unexpected effects raised many questions amongst the affected communities and stakeholders. How could volcanic eruptions cause severe disruptions at continental scales? Were these impacts totally unexpected? What could have been done to improve preparedness of aviation sector and reduce societal impacts of disruptions? The harmful effects of volcanic ash on aircraft's components have long been recognized, and volcanic ash dispersal patterns can be forecasted thanks to sophisticated numerical models. However, the procedures to be implemented in case of ash-contaminated airspace where applied only in few occasions, due to the relatively low frequency of explosive eruptions events. The 2010 Eyjafjallajokull crisis revealed a low preparedness of society to direct and indirect impacts of volcanic eruptions, and pointed out some flaws to be improved for mitigating impacts of explosive eruptions on aviation operations. The issues pointed out by the 2010 crisis are the starting point of this PhD research, which aims at offering new methods for improving aviation management during explosive volcanic eruptions. This manuscript describes the novel contributions developed during a 4-year period of research. The adoption of new techniques is proposed in order to improve current tephra dispersal modeling strategies and produce results focused on aviation needs. This research develops the first methodology to assess vulnerability of air traffic system and its elements to volcanic tephra dispersal. In addition, an impact assessment methodology has been designed to estimate expected impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on the air traffic network and its elements. The impact assessment methodology has been implemented into a map-based tool to automatically assess expected impacts of volcanic eruptions based on real ash dispersal and air traffic data. Results of the vulnerability and impact assessment can support the stakeholders involved in the definition of risk-management strategies. Contributions of this research have been applied to case-studies and specific results have been published in a collection of journal papers. Main outcomes of the research are discussed identifying further work to be done in this rapidly evolving field. This research provides useful insights to reduce impacts of volcanic eruptions on civil aviation and, eventually, on the whole society.En Abril 2010, la erupción del volcán Islandés Eyjafjallajokull causó la interrupción mas grande del tráfico aéreo en Europa desde la segunda guerra mundial. A pesar de su baja intensidad, esta erupción produjo una nube de ceniza que cubrió Europa central causando la cancelación de mas de 100.000 vuelos y perdidas económicas de más de 1.700 millones de USD. Este evento generó muchas preguntas en la opinión publica y las comunidades impactadas. ¿Pero cómo pudo una erupción volcánica provocar impactos tan fuertes a escala continental? ¿Fueron estos impactos realmente inesperados? ¿Qué se habría podido hacer para mejorar la preparación de la aviación civil? Los daños que la ceniza volcánica puede provocar en los componentes de los aviones se han documentado desde los años ochenta. También, gracias a sofisticados modelos numéricos desarrollados en las ultimas décadas, los patrones de dispersión de ceniza volcánica se pueden pronosticar. Aun así, la erupción de Eyjafjallajokull en 2010 evidenció que la sociedad no estaba preparad a lidiar con este tipo de eventos y sus impactos directos e indirectos. En Europa los procedimientos a seguir en caso de ceniza volcánica en el espacio aéreo se habían aplicado en pocas ocasiones, debido a la frecuencia relativamente baja de erupciones volcánicas explosivas. Las dificultades sufridas por los gestores del trafico aéreo en 2010 subrayan algunos aspectos a mejorar para mitigar impactos similares en el futuro. Estos aspectos son el punto de partida de esta investigación, que tiene como objetivo ofrecer nuevos métodos para mejorar la gestión del tráfico aéreo durante erupciones volcánicas explosivas. Este documento describe las contribuciones desarrolladas durante los 4 años de investigación pre-doctoral. Esta investigación propone algunas mejoras en las estrategias de modelado utilizadas actualmente para dispersión de ceniza en la atmósfera, y generar resultados que satisfagan las necesidades de la aviación civil. Se presenta la primera metodología que permite estimar la vulnerabilidad del trafico aéreo en caso de erupciones volcánicas y los impactos de la ceniza volcánica sobre sus elementos. También se ha creado una herramienta informática que permite automatizar el análisis de impactos y producir resultados utilizando datos reales de dispersión de ceniza y de trafico aéreo. Este documento discute los resultados principales de la investigación y propone directrices para su desarrollo futuro. Las contribuciones de esta investigación se han aplicado a varios casos de estudio para producir resultados específicos, y se pueden potencialmente aplicar a otras zonas. Los resultados se han presentado y discutido en un compendio de artículos científicos, publicados en revistas internacionales. Los análisis de vulnerabilidad e impacto pueden dar soporte a los actores involucrados en la gestión de trafico aéreo y la definición de estrategias para la gestión de riesgo. Sus resultados son significativos para dar soporte y definir estrategias para la gestión de riesgo. Los desarrollos futuros de esta investigación podrían utilizarse para reducir el impacto de erupciones volcánicas sobre la aviación civil, que afectan indirectamente a toda la socieda

    Blue-sky eruptions, do they exist? : implications for monitoring New Zealand's volcanoes.

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    The term “blue-sky eruption” (BSE) can be used to describe eruptions which are unexpected or have no detected precursory activity. Case study analyses indicate that they have a diverse range of characteristics and magnitudes, providing both direct and indirect hazards and occur in both under-developed and developed countries. BSEs can be a result of physical triggers (e.g. the lack of physically detectable precursors or a lack of understanding of the eruption model of the volcano), social triggers (such as an inadequate monitoring network), or a combination of the two. As the science of eruption forecasting is still relatively young, and the variations between individual volcanoes and individual eruptions are so great, there is no effective general model and none should be applied in the absence of a site-specific model. Similarly, as methods vary between monitoring agencies, there are no monitoring benchmarks for effective BSE forecasting. However a combination of seismic and gas emission monitoring may be the most effective. The United States began a hazard and monitoring review of their volcanoes in 2005. While the general principles of their review would be beneficial in a monitoring review of New Zealand’s volcanoes, differences in styles of volcanism, geographic setting and activity levels mean changes would need to be review to fully appreciate the risk posed by New Zealand’s volcanoes. Similarly, the monitoring benchmarks provided in the U.S. review may not be fully applicable in New Zealand. While advances in technology may ultimately allow the effective forecasting of some BSEs, the immediate threat posed by unexpected eruptions means that effective management and mitigation measures may be the only tools currently at our disposal to reduce the risks from BSEs

    The International Forum on Satellite EO and Geohazards

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