Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: an application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe

In this study, we present and apply an interdisciplinary approach that systematically draws qualitative insights from socio-technical transition studies to develop new quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. We identify the transition narrative as an analytical bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. Conceptual interaction is realised through the development of two contrasting transition narratives on the role of actors in meeting the European Unions' 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction objective for 2050. The first transition narrative outlines how large-scale innovation trajectories are driven by incumbent actors, whereas the second transition narrative assumes more ‘alternative’ strategies by new entrants with strong opposition to large-scale technologies. We use the multi-level perspective to draw out plausible storylines on actor positioning and momentum of change for several technological and social niche-innovations in both transition narratives. These storylines are then translated into quantitative scenarios for integrated assessment modelling. Although both developed transition pathways align with the European Union's low-carbon objective for 2050, we find that each pathway depicts a substantial departure from systems that are known to date. Future research could focus on further systematic (joint) development of operational links between the two analytical approaches, as well as work on improved representation of demand-oriented solutions in techno-economic modelling

Framing adaptation in the Victorian context: synthesis report

This synthesis report provides a summary of the research activity and conveys the key findings arising from the 18 month ‘Framing Adaptation in the Victorian Context’ project undertaken between 2010 and 2012. Due to the complex nature of climate change adaptation, the original research program was designed to better understand the conceptual underpinnings of adaptation and then to translate this academic knowledge into ‘accessible’ content that could be more effectively used by those responsible for local adaptation planning - in essence, to ‘develop and test an operational framing of adaptation which will act as a decision-making roadmap to better inform adaptation policy and practice by Victorian authorities at the local and regional levels’.The analysis on framing was sub-divided into three discrete, though complementary and overlapping, research activities, to better understand different aspects of climate change adaptation in the Victorian context:1) The development of an overarching framework that illuminates and makes sense of the many different components that influence local adaptation processes;2) The framing of current and future climate-related impacts, and adaptation, as viewed through an economic lens; and3) A bottom-up analysis of adaptation, with a particular focus on the adaptive capacity of individuals and communities, as captured by a social narrative approach.Due to the context specific nature of adaptation (influenced by both the climate-related hazard and local vulnerability) the research activity on framing was intentionally grounded in real world situations through direct engagement with a portfolio of case studies including Greater Bendigo, City of Melbourne, Greater Geelong, and Port Fairy. Therefore whilst the research findings will be of generic interest to a wide range of end-users, the focus for this particular project was on the co-generation of new knowledge with local authorities. The economic analysis was based on climate-related events that have impacted the State in the recent past.Additional papers from the \u27Framing Adaptation in the Victorian Context\u27 project can be found here

Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgments intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise and/or involvement in the decision making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management/adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting ‘acceptable risk levels’ and identifying ‘adequate’ protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process - this may in fact turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action

Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and requires unprecedented changes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate-change impacts. Different viewpoints and definitions are used by scientists, decision makers and stakeholders to meaning of this challenge. The complexity of this diversity is amplified by the lack of a clear goal and methodology for the exploration of alternative futures in the form of future climate-change scenarios. Such scenarios need, at the same time, to be scientifically credible (credibility) and to reflect different viewpoints (legitimacy) in order to be generalised enough while representing contextual diversity (consistency) to be relevant for decision-making (salience). This thesis develops and analyse European and Central Asian socio-economic scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to evaluate their credibility, legitimacy, consistency and relevance, with novel analytical methodologies. State-of-the-art scenario methodologies are framed on grounds of the objectives (exploratory and normative) and their links across scales (tight and loose links) and types (qualitative and quantitative). The first methodology is based on a fuzzy-set methodology to link qualitative (narratives) and quantitative (input variables to integrated assessment modelling) scenarios by assessing the different uncertainties resulting from their inherent complexities. In the second and third methodologies, a quantitative pan-European urbanisation model, stakeholder-led narratives and a qualitative concept of archetype are used discuss both the quantitative and qualitative scalability of the scenarios in a multi-scale approach. The fourth methodology combines a capital-capacities framework to link the goal of exploratory scenarios in relation to their relevance to decision-making by assessing their potential to achieve a (normative) desirable future. Overall, results suggest that linking directly the uncertainties contributes to more transparent qualitative and quantitative conversion and therefore yield more credible scenarios. When analysed across scales, global and European scenarios are consistent with both downscaled scenarios and local stakeholder-led narratives contribute to the creation of holistic and more legitimate scenarios. However, important divergences have emerged too. For instance, the scenario with high challenges to mitigation and low challenges to adaptation (SSP5) varies hugely across the European continent. The local versions of SSP5 tend to diverge from the global archetype more than the other SSPs. This divergence reflects different worldviews that challenge state-of-the-art knowledge and can ultimately question the role of global scenarios in guiding local scenario versions with a nested approach. I recommend the role of both narratives and quantifications to be equally important in capturing different uncertainties, stakes and worldviews, as well as a reframing of SSP uncertainty space as one of challenges to societal transformation, rather than one of challenges to mitigation and adaptation.</p

PADAMOT : project overview report

Background and relevance to radioactive waste management International consensus confirms that placing radioactive wastes and spent nuclear fuel deep underground in a geological repository is the generally preferred option for their long-term management and disposal. This strategy provides a number of advantages compared to leaving it on or near the Earth’s surface. These advantages come about because, for a well chosen site, the geosphere can provide: • a physical barrier that can negate or buffer against the effects of surface dominated natural disruptive processes such as deep weathering, glaciation, river and marine erosion or flooding, asteroid/comet impact and earthquake shaking etc. • long and slow groundwater return pathways from the facility to the biosphere along which retardation, dilution and dispersion processes may operate to reduce radionuclide concentration in the groundwater. • a stable, and benign geochemical environment to maximise the longevity of the engineered barriers such as the waste containers and backfill in the facility. • a natural radiation shield around the wastes. • a mechanically stable environment in which the facility can be constructed and will afterwards be protected. • an environment which reduces the likelihood of the repository being disturbed by inadvertent human intrusion such as land use changes, construction projects, drilling, quarrying and mining etc. • protection against the effects of deliberate human activities such as vandalism, terrorism and war etc. However, safety considerations for storing and disposing of long-lived radioactive wastes must take into account various scenarios that might affect the ability of the geosphere to provide the functionality listed above. Therefore, in order to provide confidence in the ability of a repository to perform within the deep geological setting at a particular site, a demonstration of geosphere “stability” needs to be made. Stability is defined here to be the capacity of a geological and hydrogeological system to minimise the impact of external influences on the repository environment, or at least to account for them in a manner that would allow their impacts to be evaluated and accounted for in any safety assessments. A repository should be sited where the deep geosphere is a stable host in which the engineered containment can continue to perform according to design and in which the surrounding hydrogeological, geomechanical and geochemical environment will continue to operate as a natural barrier to radionuclide movement towards the biosphere. However, over the long periods of time during which long-lived radioactive wastes will pose a hazard, environmental change at the surface has the potential to disrupt the stability of the geosphere and therefore the causes of environmental change and their potential consequences need to be evaluated. As noted above, environmental change can include processes such as deep weathering, glaciation, river and marine erosion. It can also lead to changes in groundwater boundary conditions through alternating recharge/discharge relationships. One of the key drivers for environmental change is climate variability. The question then arises, how can geosphere stability be assessed with respect to changes in climate? Key issues raised in connection with this are: • What evidence is there that 'going underground' eliminates the extreme conditions that storage on the surface would be subjected to in the long term? • How can the additional stability and safety of the deep geosphere be demonstrated with evidence from the natural system? As a corollary to this, the capacity of repository sites deep underground in stable rock masses to mitigate potential impacts of future climate change on groundwater conditions therefore needs to be tested and demonstrated. To date, generic scenarios for groundwater evolution relating to climate change are currently weakly constrained by data and process understanding. Hence, the possibility of site-specific changes of groundwater conditions in the future can only be assessed and demonstrated by studying groundwater evolution in the past. Stability of groundwater conditions in the past is an indication of future stability, though both the climatic and geological contexts must be taken into account in making such an assertion

Transparent and feasible uncertainty assessment adds value to applied ecosystem services modeling

We introduce a special issue that aims to simultaneously motivate interest in uncertainty assessment (UA) and reduce the barriers practitioners face in conducting it. The issue, “Demonstrating transparent, feasible, and useful uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services modeling,” responds to findings from a 2016 workshop of academics and practitioners that identified challenges and potential solutions to enhance the practice of uncertainty assessment in the ES community. Participants identified that one important gap was the lack of a compelling set of cases showing that UA can be feasibly conducted at varying levels of sophistication, and that such assessment can usefully inform decision-relevant modeling conclusions. This article orients the reader to the 11 other articles that comprise the special issue, and which span multiple methods and application domains, all with an explicit consideration of uncertainty. We highlight the value of UA demonstrated in the articles, including changing decisions, facilitating transparency, and clarifying the nature of evidence. We conclude by suggesting ways to promote further adoption of uncertainty analysis in ecosystem service assessments. These include: Easing the analytic workflows involved in UA while guarding against rote analyses, applying multiple models to the same problem, and learning about the conduct and value of UA from other disciplines

Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios

Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (numerical) forms. Although conceptually strong, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have limited complementarity due to the lack of a fundamental bridge between two different concepts of uncertainty: linguistic and epistemic. Epistemic uncertainty is represented by the range of scenarios and linguistic variables within them, while linguistic uncertainty is represented by the translation of those linguistic variables via the fuzzy set approach. Both are therefore incorporated in the models that utilise the final quantifications. The application of this method is demonstrated in a stakeholder-led development of socioeconomic scenarios. The socioeconomic scenarios include several vague elements due to heterogeneous linguistic interpretations of future change on the part of stakeholders. We apply the so-called ‘Centre of Gravity’ (CoG) operator to defuzzify the quantifications of linguistic values provided by stakeholders. The results suggest that, in these cases, uniform distributions provide a close fit to the membership functions derived from ranges of values provided by stakeholders. As a result, the 90 or 95% intervals of the probability density functions are similar to the 0.1 or 0.05 degrees of membership of the linguistic values of linguistic variables. By bridging different uncertainty concepts (linguistic and epistemic uncertainties), this study offers a substantial step towards linking qualitative and quantitative scenarios

Future socioeconomic changes

Development of socio-economic scenarios and translating them into suitable storylines and provide an overview of potential data to be used for a quantification of future disease vulnerabilitie

Hydrological modelling as a tool for interdisciplinary workshops on future drought

© 2018, © The Author(s) 2018. Transformative interdisciplinary methods and tools are required to address crucial water-related challenges facing societies in the current era of the Anthropocene. In a community-based study in the Limpopo basin of South Africa, physical and social science methods were brought together to run interdisciplinary workshops aimed at enhancing preparedness for possible future drought. To generate storylines for the workshops, relevant scenarios were modelled using a catchment-scale hydrological model, SHETRAN. Set up using freely available data, local knowledge, and narrative-based group interviews on past experiences of drought, the model acted as a locally-relevant tool for prompting discussions about potential future drought impacts, responses and preparedness, and to stimulate the production of community future narratives. In this paper, we discuss the elements involved in the modelling process: the building of the model through an interdisciplinary approach; setting up the model with limited data; and the translation of the model results into storylines for the workshops. We found that by using this methodology scientific grounding was given to the workshop storylines, and that the local context of the model and the engaging approach of creating narratives encouraged participant involvement in discussions about the future. The method of generating these future stories was an important process for the participants in developing their thinking about possible futures, preparedness and adaptation. In this paper we show how this alternative approach of using a hydrological model has benefits and we discuss the limitations and lessons of the approach for future interdisciplinary research