Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models

Learning models for semantic classification of insufficient plantar pressure images

Establishing a reliable and stable model to predict a target by using insufficient labeled samples is feasible and effective, particularly, for a sensor-generated data-set. This paper has been inspired with insufficient data-set learning algorithms, such as metric-based, prototype networks and meta-learning, and therefore we propose an insufficient data-set transfer model learning method. Firstly, two basic models for transfer learning are introduced. A classification system and calculation criteria are then subsequently introduced. Secondly, a dataset of plantar pressure for comfort shoe design is acquired and preprocessed through foot scan system; and by using a pre-trained convolution neural network employing AlexNet and convolution neural network (CNN)- based transfer modeling, the classification accuracy of the plantar pressure images is over 93.5%. Finally, the proposed method has been compared to the current classifiers VGG, ResNet, AlexNet and pre-trained CNN. Also, our work is compared with known-scaling and shifting (SS) and unknown-plain slot (PS) partition methods on the public test databases: SUN, CUB, AWA1, AWA2, and aPY with indices of precision (tr, ts, H) and time (training and evaluation). The proposed method for the plantar pressure classification task shows high performance in most indices when comparing with other methods. The transfer learning-based method can be applied to other insufficient data-sets of sensor imaging fields

An Adaptive Approach for Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting Based on Meta-Learning

This paper studies an adaptive approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting (WPF) including offline and online learning procedures. In the offline learning stage, a base forecast model is trained via inner and outer loop updates of meta-learning, which endows the base forecast model with excellent adaptability to different forecast tasks, i.e., probabilistic WPF with different lead times or locations. In the online learning stage, the base forecast model is applied to online forecasting combined with incremental learning techniques. On this basis, the online forecast takes full advantage of recent information and the adaptability of the base forecast model. Two applications are developed based on our proposed approach concerning forecasting with different lead times (temporal adaptation) and forecasting for newly established wind farms (spatial adaptation), respectively. Numerical tests were conducted on real-world wind power data sets. Simulation results validate the advantages in adaptivity of the proposed methods compared with existing alternatives

Meta-Transformer: A Unified Framework for Multimodal Learning

Multimodal learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities. Despite years of development in this field, it still remains challenging to design a unified network for processing various modalities ($\textit{e.g.}$ natural language, 2D images, 3D point clouds, audio, video, time series, tabular data) due to the inherent gaps among them. In this work, we propose a framework, named Meta-Transformer, that leverages a $\textbf{frozen}$ encoder to perform multimodal perception without any paired multimodal training data. In Meta-Transformer, the raw input data from various modalities are mapped into a shared token space, allowing a subsequent encoder with frozen parameters to extract high-level semantic features of the input data. Composed of three main components: a unified data tokenizer, a modality-shared encoder, and task-specific heads for downstream tasks, Meta-Transformer is the first framework to perform unified learning across 12 modalities with unpaired data. Experiments on different benchmarks reveal that Meta-Transformer can handle a wide range of tasks including fundamental perception (text, image, point cloud, audio, video), practical application (X-Ray, infrared, hyperspectral, and IMU), and data mining (graph, tabular, and time-series). Meta-Transformer indicates a promising future for developing unified multimodal intelligence with transformers. Code will be available at https://github.com/invictus717/MetaTransformerComment: Project website: https://kxgong.github.io/meta_transformer

One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM

Although we have witnessed great success of pre-trained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), limited progress has been made for general time series analysis. Unlike NLP and CV where a unified model can be used to perform different tasks, specially designed approach still dominates in each time series analysis task such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The main challenge that blocks the development of pre-trained model for time series analysis is the lack of a large amount of data for training. In this work, we address this challenge by leveraging language or CV models, pre-trained from billions of tokens, for time series analysis. Specifically, we refrain from altering the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks in the pre-trained language or image model. This model, known as the Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), is evaluated through fine-tuning on all major types of tasks involving time series. Our results demonstrate that pre-trained models on natural language or images can lead to a comparable or state-of-the-art performance in all main time series analysis tasks, as illustrated in Figure 1. We also found both theoretically and empirically that the self-attention module behaviors similarly to principle component analysis (PCA), an observation that helps explains how transformer bridges the domain gap and a crucial step towards understanding the universality of a pre-trained transformer.The code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/One_Fits_All.Comment: Neurips 2023 Spotligh

Entity Aware Modelling: A Survey

Personalized prediction of responses for individual entities caused by external drivers is vital across many disciplines. Recent machine learning (ML) advances have led to new state-of-the-art response prediction models. Models built at a population level often lead to sub-optimal performance in many personalized prediction settings due to heterogeneity in data across entities (tasks). In personalized prediction, the goal is to incorporate inherent characteristics of different entities to improve prediction performance. In this survey, we focus on the recent developments in the ML community for such entity-aware modeling approaches. ML algorithms often modulate the network using these entity characteristics when they are readily available. However, these entity characteristics are not readily available in many real-world scenarios, and different ML methods have been proposed to infer these characteristics from the data. In this survey, we have organized the current literature on entity-aware modeling based on the availability of these characteristics as well as the amount of training data. We highlight how recent innovations in other disciplines, such as uncertainty quantification, fairness, and knowledge-guided machine learning, can improve entity-aware modeling.Comment: Submitted to IJCAI, Survey Trac

Semantic Attributes for Transfer Learning in Visual Recognition

Angetrieben durch den Erfolg von Deep Learning Verfahren wurden in Bezug auf künstliche Intelligenz erhebliche Fortschritte im Bereich des Maschinenverstehens gemacht. Allerdings sind Tausende von manuell annotierten Trainingsdaten zwingend notwendig, um die Generalisierungsfähigkeit solcher Modelle sicherzustellen. Darüber hinaus muss das Modell jedes Mal komplett neu trainiert werden, sobald es auf eine neue Problemklasse angewandt werden muss. Dies führt wiederum dazu, dass der sehr kostenintensive Prozess des Sammelns und Annotierens von Trainingsdaten wiederholt werden muss, wodurch die Skalierbarkeit solcher Modelle erheblich begrenzt wird. Auf der anderen Seite bearbeiten wir Menschen neue Aufgaben nicht isoliert, sondern haben die bemerkenswerte Fähigkeit, auf bereits erworbenes Wissen bei der Lösung neuer Probleme zurückzugreifen. Diese Fähigkeit wird als Transfer-Learning bezeichnet. Sie ermöglicht es uns, schneller, besser und anhand nur sehr weniger Beispiele Neues zu lernen. Daher besteht ein großes Interesse, diese Fähigkeit durch Algorithmen nachzuahmen, insbesondere in Bereichen, in denen Trainingsdaten sehr knapp oder sogar nicht verfügbar sind. In dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir Transfer-Learning im Kontext von Computer Vision. Insbesondere untersuchen wir, wie visuelle Erkennung (z.B. Objekt- oder Aktionsklassifizierung) durchgeführt werden kann, wenn nur wenige oder keine Trainingsbeispiele existieren. Eine vielversprechende Lösung in dieser Richtung ist das Framework der semantischen Attribute. Dabei werden visuelle Kategorien in Form von Attributen wie Farbe, Muster und Form beschrieben. Diese Attribute können aus einer disjunkten Menge von Trainingsbeispielen gelernt werden. Da die Attribute eine doppelte, d.h. sowohl visuelle als auch semantische, Interpretation haben, kann Sprache effektiv genutzt werden, um den Übertragungsprozess zu steuern. Dies bedeutet, dass Modelle für eine neue visuelle Kategorie nur anhand der sprachlichen Beschreibung erstellt werden können, indem relevante Attribute selektiert und auf die neue Kategorie übertragen werden. Die Notwendigkeit von Trainingsbildern entfällt durch diesen Prozess jedoch vollständig. In dieser Arbeit stellen wir neue Lösungen vor, semantische Attribute zu modellieren, zu übertragen, automatisch mit visuellen Kategorien zu assoziieren, und aus sprachlichen Beschreibungen zu erkennen. Zu diesem Zweck beleuchten wir die attributbasierte Erkennung aus den folgenden vier Blickpunkten: 1) Anders als das gängige Modell, bei dem Attribute global gelernt werden müssen, stellen wir einen hierarchischen Ansatz vor, der es ermöglicht, die Attribute auf verschiedenen Abstraktionsebenen zu lernen. Wir zeigen zudem, wie die Struktur zwischen den Kategorien effektiv genutzt werden kann, um den Lern- und Transferprozess zu steuern und damit diskriminative Modelle für neue Kategorien zu erstellen. Mit einer gründlichen experimentellen Analyse demonstrieren wir eine deutliche Verbesserung unseres Modells gegenüber dem globalen Ansatz, insbesondere bei der Erkennung detailgenauer Kategorien. 2) In vorherrschend attributbasierten Transferansätzen überwacht der Benutzer die Zuordnung zwischen den Attributen und den Kategorien. Wir schlagen in dieser Arbeit vor, die Verbindung zwischen den beiden automatisch und ohne Benutzereingriff herzustellen. Unser Modell erfasst die semantischen Beziehungen, welche die Attribute mit Objekten koppeln, um ihre Assoziationen vorherzusagen und unüberwacht auszuwählen welche Attribute übertragen werden sollen. 3) Wir umgehen die Notwendigkeit eines vordefinierten Vokabulars von Attributen. Statt dessen schlagen wir vor, Enyzklopädie-Artikel zu verwenden, die Objektkategorien in einem freien Text beschreiben, um automatisch eine Menge von diskriminanten, salienten und vielfältigen Attributen zu entdecken. Diese Beseitigung des Bedarfs eines benutzerdefinierten Vokabulars ermöglicht es uns, das Potenzial attributbasierter Modelle im Kontext sehr großer Datenmengen vollends auszuschöpfen. 4) Wir präsentieren eine neuartige Anwendung semantischer Attribute in der realen Welt. Wir schlagen das erste Verfahren vor, welches automatisch Modestile lernt, und vorhersagt, wie sich ihre Beliebtheit in naher Zukunft entwickeln wird. Wir zeigen, dass semantische Attribute interpretierbare Modestile liefern und zu einer besseren Vorhersage der Beliebtheit von visuellen Stilen im Vergleich zu anderen Darstellungen führen

Networkwide Traffic State Forecasting Using Exogenous Information: A Multi-Dimensional Graph Attention-Based Approach

Traffic state forecasting is crucial for traffic management and control strategies, as well as user- and system-level decision making in the transportation network. While traffic forecasting has been approached with a variety of techniques over the last couple of decades, most approaches simply rely on endogenous traffic variables for state prediction, despite the evidence that exogenous factors can significantly impact traffic conditions. This paper proposes a multi-dimensional spatio-temporal graph attention-based traffic prediction approach (M-STGAT), which predicts traffic based on past observations of speed, along with lane closure events, temperature, and visibility across the transportation network. The approach is based on a graph attention network architecture, which also learns based on the structure of the transportation network on which these variables are observed. Numerical experiments are performed using traffic speed and lane closure data from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Performance Measurement System (PeMS). The corresponding weather data were downloaded from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOOA) Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS). For comparison, the numerical experiments implement three alternative models which do not allow for the multi-dimensional input. The M-STGAT is shown to outperform the three alternative models, when performing tests using our primary data set for prediction with a 30-, 45-, and 60-minute prediction horizon, in terms of three error measures: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). However, the model's transferability can vary for different transfer data sets and this aspect may require further investigation.Comment: Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 202