Under Uncertainty Trust Estimation in Multi-Valued Settings

Social networking sites have developed considerably during the past couple of years. However, few websites exploit the potentials of combining the social networking sites with online markets. This, in turn, would help users to distinguish and engage into interaction with other unknown, yet trustworthy, users in the market. In this thesis, we develop a model to estimate the trust of unknown agents in a multi-agent system where agents engage into business-oriented interactions with each other. The proposed trust model estimates the degree of trustworthiness of an unknown target agent through the information acquired from a group of advisor agents, who had direct interactions with the target agent. This problem is addressed when: (1) the trust of both advisor and target agents is subject to some uncertainty; (2) the advisor agents are self-interested and provide misleading accounts of their past experiences with the target agents; and (3) the outcome of each interaction between the agents is multi-valued. We use possibility distributions to model trust with respect to its uncertainties thanks to its potential capability of modeling uncertainty arisen from both variability and ignorance. Moreover, we propose trust estimation models to approximate the degree of trustworthiness of an unknown target agent in the two following problems: (1) in the first problem, the advisor agents are assumed to be unknown and have an unknown level of trustworthiness; and (2) in the second problem, however, some interactions are carried out with the advisor agents and their trust distributions are modeled. In addition, a certainty metric is proposed in the possibilistic domain, measuring the confidence of an agent in the reports of its advisors which considers the consistency in the advisors’ reported information and the advisors’ degree of trustworthiness. Finally, we validate the proposed approaches through extensive experiments in various settings

Measuring Data Believability: A Provenance Approach

Data quality is crucial for operational efficiency and sound decision making. This paper focuses on believability, a major aspect of quality, measured along three dimensions: trustworthiness, reasonableness, and temporality. We ground our approach on provenance, i.e. the origin and subsequent processing history of data. We present our provenance model and our approach for computing believability based on provenance metadata. The approach is structured into three increasingly complex building blocks: (1) definition of metrics for assessing the believability of data sources, (2) definition of metrics for assessing the believability of data resulting from one process run and (3) assessment of believability based on all the sources and processing history of data. We illustrate our approach with a scenario based on Internet data. To our knowledge, this is the first work to develop a precise approach to measuring data believability and making explicit use of provenance-based measurements

Belief State Planning for Autonomous Driving: Planning with Interaction, Uncertain Prediction and Uncertain Perception

This thesis presents a behavior planning algorithm for automated driving in urban environments with an uncertain and dynamic nature. The uncertainty in the environment arises by the fact that the intentions as well as the future trajectories of the surrounding drivers cannot be measured directly but can only be estimated in a probabilistic fashion. Even the perception of objects is uncertain due to sensor noise or possible occlusions. When driving in such environments, the autonomous car must predict the behavior of the other drivers and plan safe, comfortable and legal trajectories. Planning such trajectories requires robust decision making when several high-level options are available for the autonomous car. Current planning algorithms for automated driving split the problem into different subproblems, ranging from discrete, high-level decision making to prediction and continuous trajectory planning. This separation of one problem into several subproblems, combined with rule-based decision making, leads to sub-optimal behavior. This thesis presents a global, closed-loop formulation for the motion planning problem which intertwines action selection and corresponding prediction of the other agents in one optimization problem. The global formulation allows the planning algorithm to make the decision for certain high-level options implicitly. Furthermore, the closed-loop manner of the algorithm optimizes the solution for various, future scenarios concerning the future behavior of the other agents. Formulating prediction and planning as an intertwined problem allows for modeling interaction, i.e. the future reaction of the other drivers to the behavior of the autonomous car. The problem is modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) with a discrete action and a continuous state and observation space. The solution to the POMDP is a policy over belief states, which contains different reactive plans for possible future scenarios. Surrounding drivers are modeled with interactive, probabilistic agent models to account for their prediction uncertainty. The field of view of the autonomous car is simulated ahead over the whole planning horizon during the optimization of the policy. Simulating the possible, corresponding, future observations allows the algorithm to select actions that actively reduce the uncertainty of the world state. Depending on the scenario, the behavior of the autonomous car is optimized in (combined lateral and) longitudinal direction. The algorithm is formulated in a generic way and solved online, which allows for applying the algorithm on various road layouts and scenarios. While such a generic problem formulation is intractable to solve exactly, this thesis demonstrates how a sufficiently good approximation to the optimal policy can be found online. The problem is solved by combining state of the art Monte Carlo tree search algorithms with near-optimal, domain specific roll-outs. The algorithm is evaluated in scenarios such as the crossing of intersections under unknown intentions of other crossing vehicles, interactive lane changes in narrow gaps and decision making at intersections with large occluded areas. It is shown that the behavior of the closed-loop planner is less conservative than comparable open-loop planners. More precisely, it is even demonstrated that the policy enables the autonomous car to drive in a similar way as an omniscient planner with full knowledge of the scene. It is also demonstrated how the autonomous car executes actions to actively gather more information about the surrounding and to reduce the uncertainty of its belief state

Belief State Planning for Autonomous Driving: Planning with Interaction, Uncertain Prediction and Uncertain Perception

This work presents a behavior planning algorithm for automated driving in urban environments with an uncertain and dynamic nature. The algorithm allows to consider the prediction uncertainty (e.g. different intentions), perception uncertainty (e.g. occlusions) as well as the uncertain interactive behavior of the other agents explicitly. Simulating the most likely future scenarios allows to find an optimal policy online that enables non-conservative planning under uncertainty

Generalized belief change with imprecise probabilities and graphical models

We provide a theoretical investigation of probabilistic belief revision in complex frameworks, under extended conditions of uncertainty, inconsistency and imprecision. We motivate our kinematical approach by specializing our discussion to probabilistic reasoning with graphical models, whose modular representation allows for efficient inference. Most results in this direction are derived from the relevant work of Chan and Darwiche (2005), that first proved the inter-reducibility of virtual and probabilistic evidence. Such forms of information, deeply distinct in their meaning, are extended to the conditional and imprecise frameworks, allowing further generalizations, e.g. to experts' qualitative assessments. Belief aggregation and iterated revision of a rational agent's belief are also explored

A Game Theory Based Model of Human Driving with Application to Autonomous and Mixed Driving

In this work, I consider the development of a driver model to better understand human drivers’ various behaviors in the upcoming mixed situation of human drivers and autonomous vehicles. For this, my current effort focuses on modeling the driver’s decisions and corresponding driving behaviors. First, I study an individual driver’s reasoning process through game theoretic investigation. The driver decision model is modeled as the Stackelberg game, which is based on the backward information propagation. In the driver decision model, I focus on the drivers’ insensible desires and corresponding unwanted traffic situations. With the comparison of the model and the field data, it is shown that the model reproduces the relationship between the driver’s inattentiveness and collisions in the real world. Next, the driving behavior control is presented. I propose a human-like predictive perception model of potential collision with an adjacent vehicle. The model is based on hybrid systematic approach. In turn, with the predictive perceptions, a driving safety controller is designed based on model predictive control. The model shows adequate predictive responses against the other vehicles with respect to the driver’s rationality. In sum, I present a driver model that corresponds to and predicts traffic situations according to a human driver’s irrationality factor. This model shows a meaningful similarity to the real-world crashes and predictive behaviors according to the driver’s irrationality

Collaborative autonomy in heterogeneous multi-robot systems

As autonomous mobile robots become increasingly connected and widely deployed in different domains, managing multiple robots and their interaction is key to the future of ubiquitous autonomous systems. Indeed, robots are not individual entities anymore. Instead, many robots today are deployed as part of larger fleets or in teams. The benefits of multirobot collaboration, specially in heterogeneous groups, are multiple. Significantly higher degrees of situational awareness and understanding of their environment can be achieved when robots with different operational capabilities are deployed together. Examples of this include the Perseverance rover and the Ingenuity helicopter that NASA has deployed in Mars, or the highly heterogeneous robot teams that explored caves and other complex environments during the last DARPA Sub-T competition. This thesis delves into the wide topic of collaborative autonomy in multi-robot systems, encompassing some of the key elements required for achieving robust collaboration: solving collaborative decision-making problems; securing their operation, management and interaction; providing means for autonomous coordination in space and accurate global or relative state estimation; and achieving collaborative situational awareness through distributed perception and cooperative planning. The thesis covers novel formation control algorithms, and new ways to achieve accurate absolute or relative localization within multi-robot systems. It also explores the potential of distributed ledger technologies as an underlying framework to achieve collaborative decision-making in distributed robotic systems. Throughout the thesis, I introduce novel approaches to utilizing cryptographic elements and blockchain technology for securing the operation of autonomous robots, showing that sensor data and mission instructions can be validated in an end-to-end manner. I then shift the focus to localization and coordination, studying ultra-wideband (UWB) radios and their potential. I show how UWB-based ranging and localization can enable aerial robots to operate in GNSS-denied environments, with a study of the constraints and limitations. I also study the potential of UWB-based relative localization between aerial and ground robots for more accurate positioning in areas where GNSS signals degrade. In terms of coordination, I introduce two new algorithms for formation control that require zero to minimal communication, if enough degree of awareness of neighbor robots is available. These algorithms are validated in simulation and real-world experiments. The thesis concludes with the integration of a new approach to cooperative path planning algorithms and UWB-based relative localization for dense scene reconstruction using lidar and vision sensors in ground and aerial robots

Motion Planning for Autonomous Vehicles in Partially Observable Environments

Unsicherheiten, welche aus Sensorrauschen oder nicht beobachtbaren Manöverintentionen anderer Verkehrsteilnehmer resultieren, akkumulieren sich in der Datenverarbeitungskette eines autonomen Fahrzeugs und führen zu einer unvollständigen oder fehlinterpretierten Umfeldrepräsentation. Dadurch weisen Bewegungsplaner in vielen Fällen ein konservatives Verhalten auf. Diese Dissertation entwickelt zwei Bewegungsplaner, welche die Defizite der vorgelagerten Verarbeitungsmodule durch Ausnutzung der Reaktionsfähigkeit des Fahrzeugs kompensieren. Diese Arbeit präsentiert zuerst eine ausgiebige Analyse über die Ursachen und Klassifikation der Unsicherheiten und zeigt die Eigenschaften eines idealen Bewegungsplaners auf. Anschließend befasst sie sich mit der mathematischen Modellierung der Fahrziele sowie den Randbedingungen, welche die Sicherheit gewährleisten. Das resultierende Planungsproblem wird mit zwei unterschiedlichen Methoden in Echtzeit gelöst: Zuerst mit nichtlinearer Optimierung und danach, indem es als teilweise beobachtbarer Markov-Entscheidungsprozess (POMDP) formuliert und die Lösung mit Stichproben angenähert wird. Der auf nichtlinearer Optimierung basierende Planer betrachtet mehrere Manöveroptionen mit individuellen Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten und berechnet daraus ein Bewegungsprofil. Er garantiert Sicherheit, indem er die Realisierbarkeit einer zufallsbeschränkten Rückfalloption gewährleistet. Der Beitrag zum POMDP-Framework konzentriert sich auf die Verbesserung der Stichprobeneffizienz in der Monte-Carlo-Planung. Erstens werden Informationsbelohnungen definiert, welche die Stichproben zu Aktionen führen, die eine höhere Belohnung ergeben. Dabei wird die Auswahl der Stichproben für das reward-shaped Problem durch die Verwendung einer allgemeinen Heuristik verbessert. Zweitens wird die Kontinuität in der Reward-Struktur für die Aktionsauswahl ausgenutzt und dadurch signifikante Leistungsverbesserungen erzielt. Evaluierungen zeigen, dass mit diesen Planern große Erfolge in Fahrversuchen und Simulationsstudien mit komplexen Interaktionsmodellen erreicht werden

Advances in Automated Driving Systems

Electrification, automation of vehicle control, digitalization and new mobility are the mega-trends in automotive engineering, and they are strongly connected. While many demonstrations for highly automated vehicles have been made worldwide, many challenges remain in bringing automated vehicles to the market for private and commercial use. The main challenges are as follows: reliable machine perception; accepted standards for vehicle-type approval and homologation; verification and validation of the functional safety, especially at SAE level 3+ systems; legal and ethical implications; acceptance of vehicle automation by occupants and society; interaction between automated and human-controlled vehicles in mixed traffic; human–machine interaction and usability; manipulation, misuse and cyber-security; the system costs of hard- and software and development efforts. This Special Issue was prepared in the years 2021 and 2022 and includes 15 papers with original research related to recent advances in the aforementioned challenges. The topics of this Special Issue cover: Machine perception for SAE L3+ driving automation; Trajectory planning and decision-making in complex traffic situations; X-by-Wire system components; Verification and validation of SAE L3+ systems; Misuse, manipulation and cybersecurity; Human–machine interactions, driver monitoring and driver-intention recognition; Road infrastructure measures for the introduction of SAE L3+ systems; Solutions for interactions between human- and machine-controlled vehicles in mixed traffic

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health