A contribution to support decision making in energy/water sypply chain optimisation

The seeking of process sustainability forces enterprises to change their operations. Additionally, the industrial globalization implies a very dynamic market that, among other issues, promotes the enterprises competition. Therefore, the efficient control and use of their Key Performance Indicators, including profitability, cost reduction, demand satisfaction and environmental impact associated to the development of new products, is a significant challenge. All the above indicators can be efficiently controlled through the Supply Chain Management. Thus, companies work towards the optimization of their individual operations under competitive environments taking advantage of the flexibility provided by the virtually inexistent world market restrictions. This is achieved by the coordination of the resource flows, across all the entities and echelons belonging to the system network. Nevertheless, such coordination is significantly complicated if considering the presence of uncertainty and even more if seeking for a win-win outcome. The purpose of this thesis is extending the current decision making strategies to expedite these tasks in industrial processes. Such a contribution is based on the development of efficient mathematical models that allows coordinating large amount of information synchronizing the production and distribution tasks in terms of economic, environmental and social criteria. This thesis starts presents an overview of the requirements of sustainable production processes, describing and analyzing the current methods and tools used and identifying the most relevant open issues. All the above is always within the framework of Process System Engineering literature. The second part of this thesis is focused in stressing the current Multi-Objective solution strategies. During this part, first explores how the profitability of the Supply Chain can be enhanced by considering simultaneously multiple objectives under demand uncertainties. Particularly, solution frameworks have been proposed in which different multi-criteria decision making strategies have been combined with stochastic approaches. Furthermore, additional performance indicators (including financial and operational ones) have been included in the same solution framework to evaluate its capabilities. This framework was also applied to decentralized supply chains problems in order to explore its capabilities to produce solution that improves the performances of each one of the SC entities simultaneously. Consequently, a new generalized mathematical formulation which integrates many performance indicators in the production process within a supply chain is efficiently solved. Afterwards, the third part of the thesis extends the proposed solution framework to address the uncertainty management. Particularly, the consideration of different types and sources of uncertainty (e.g. external and internal ones) where considered, through the implementation of preventive approaches. This part also explores the use of solution strategies that efficiently selects the number of scenarios that represent the uncertainty conditions. Finally, the importance and effect of each uncertainty source over the process performance is detailed analyzed through the use of surrogate models that promote the sensitivity analysis of those uncertainties. The third part of this thesis is focused on the integration of the above multi-objective and uncertainty approaches for the optimization of a sustainable Supply Chain. Besides the integration of different solution approaches, this part also considers the integration of hierarchical decision levels, by the exploitation of mathematical models that assess the consequences of considering simultaneously design and planning decisions under centralized and decentralized Supply Chains. Finally, the last part of this thesis provides the final conclusions and further work to be developed.La globalización industrial genera un ambiente dinámico en los mercados que, entre otras cosas, promueve la competencia entre corporaciones. Por lo tanto, el uso eficiente de las los indicadores de rendimiento, incluyendo rentabilidad, satisfacción de la demanda y en general el impacto ambiental, representa un area de oportunidad importante. El control de estos indicadores tiene un efecto positivo si se combinan con la gestión de cadena de suministro. Por lo tanto, las compañías buscan definir sus operaciones para permanecer activas dentro de un ambiente competitivo, tomando en cuenta las restricciones en el mercado mundial. Lo anterior puede ser logrado mediante la coordinación de los flujos de recursos a través de todas las entidades y escalones pertenecientes a la red del sistema. Sin embargo, dicha coordinación se complica significativamente si se quiere considerar la presencia de incertidumbre, y aún más, si se busca exclusivamente un ganar-ganar. El propósito de esta tesis es extender el alcance de las estrategias de toma de decisiones con el fin de facilitar estas tareas dentro de procesos industriales. Estas contribuciones se basan en el desarrollo de modelos matemáticos eficientes que permitan coordinar grandes cantidades de información sincronizando las tareas de producción y distribución en términos económicos, ambientales y sociales. Esta tesis inicia presentando una visión global de los requerimientos de un proceso de producción sostenible, describiendo y analizando los métodos y herramientas actuales así como identificando las áreas de oportunidad más relevantes dentro del marco de ingeniería de procesos La segunda parte se enfoca en enfatizar las capacidades de las estrategias de solución multi-objetivo, durante la cual, se explora el mejoramiento de la rentabilidad de la cadena de suministro considerando múltiples objetivos bajo incertidumbres en la demanda. Particularmente, diferentes marcos de solución han sido propuestos en los que varias estrategias de toma de decisión multi-criterio han sido combinadas con aproximaciones estocásticas. Por otra parte, indicadores de rendimiento (incluyendo financiero y operacional) han sido incluidos en el mismo marco de solución para evaluar sus capacidades. Este marco fue aplicado también a problemas de cadenas de suministro descentralizados con el fin de explorar sus capacidades de producir soluciones que mejoran simultáneamente el rendimiento para cada uno de las entidades dentro de la cadena de suministro. Consecuentemente, una nueva formulación que integra varios indicadores de rendimiento en los procesos de producción fue propuesta y validada. La tercera parte de la tesis extiende el marco de solución propuesto para abordar el manejo de incertidumbres. Particularmente, la consideración de diferentes tipos y fuentes de incertidumbre (p.ej. externos e internos) fueron considerados, mediante la implementación de aproximaciones preventivas. Esta parte también explora el uso de estrategias de solución que elige eficientemente el número de escenarios necesario que representan las condiciones inciertas. Finalmente, la importancia y efecto de cada una de las fuentes de incertidumbre sobre el rendimiento del proceso es analizado en detalle mediante el uso de meta modelos que promueven el análisis de sensibilidad de dichas incertidumbres. La tercera parte de esta tesis se enfoca en la integración de las metodologías de multi-objetivo e incertidumbre anteriormente expuestas para la optimización de cadenas de suministro sostenibles. Además de la integración de diferentes métodos. Esta parte también considera la integración de diferentes niveles jerárquicos de decisión, mediante el aprovechamiento de modelos matemáticos que evalúan lasconsecuencias de considerar simultáneamente las decisiones de diseño y planeación de una cadena de suministro centralizada y descentralizada. La parte final de la tesis detalla las conclusiones y el trabajo a futuro necesario sobre esta línea de investigaciónPostprint (published version

A rolling horizon approach for optimal management of microgrids under stochastic uncertainty

This work presents a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) approach based on a combination of a rolling horizon and stochastic programming formulation. The objective of the proposed formulation is the optimal management of the supply and demand of energy and heat in microgrids under uncertainty, in order to minimise the operational cost. Delays in the starting time of energy demands are allowed within a predefined time windows to tackle flexible demand profiles. This approach uses a scenario-based stochastic programming formulation. These scenarios consider uncertainty in the wind speed forecast, the processing time of the energy tasks and the overall heat demand, to take into account all possible scenarios related to the generation and demand of energy and heat. Nevertheless, embracing all external scenarios associated with wind speed prediction makes their consideration computationally intractable. Thus, updating input information (e.g., wind speed forecast) is required to guarantee good quality and practical solutions. Hence, the two-stage stochastic MILP formulation is introduced into a rolling horizon approach that periodically updates input information

CHANGE-READY MPC SYSTEMS AND PROGRESSIVE MODELING: VISION, PRINCIPLES, AND APPLICATIONS

The last couple of decades have witnessed a level of fast-paced development of new ideas, products, manufacturing technologies, manufacturing practices, customer expectations, knowledge transition, and civilization movements, as it has never before. In today\u27s manufacturing world, change became an intrinsic characteristic that is addressed everywhere. How to deal with change, how to manage it, how to bind to it, how to steer it, and how to create a value out of it, were the key drivers that brought this research to existence. Change-Ready Manufacturing Planning and Control (CMPC) systems are presented as the first answer. CMPC characteristics, change drivers, and some principles of Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) are interwoven to present a blueprint of a new framework and mind-set in the manufacturing planning and control field, CMPC systems. In order to step further and make the internals of CMPC systems/components change-ready, an enabling modeling approach was needed. Progressive Modeling (PM), a forward-looking multi-disciplinary modeling approach, is developed in order to modernize the modeling process of today\u27s complex industrial problems and create pragmatic solutions for them. It is designed to be pragmatic, highly sophisticated, and revolves around many seminal principles that either innovated or imported from many disciplines: Systems Analysis and Design, Software Engineering, Advanced Optimization Algorisms, Business Concepts, Manufacturing Strategies, Operations Management, and others. Problems are systemized, analyzed, componentized; their logic and their solution approaches are redefined to make them progressive (ready to change, adapt, and develop further). Many innovations have been developed in order to enrich the modeling process and make it a well-assorted toolkit able to address today\u27s tougher, larger, and more complex industrial problems. PM brings so many novel gadgets in its toolbox: function templates, advanced notation, cascaded mathematical models, mathematical statements, society of decision structures, couplers--just to name a few. In this research, PM has been applied to three different applications: a couple of variants of Aggregate Production Planning (APP) Problem and the novel Reconfiguration and Operations Planning (ROP) problem. The latest is pioneering in both the Reconfigurable Manufacturing and the Operations Management fields. All the developed models, algorithms, and results reveal that the new analytical and computational power gained by PM development and demonstrate its ability to create a new generation of unmatched large scale and scope system problems and their integrated solutions. PM has the potential to be instrumental toolkit in the development of Reconfigurable Manufacturing Systems. In terms of other potential applications domain, PM is about to spark a new paradigm in addressing large-scale system problems of many engineering and scientific fields in a highly pragmatic way without losing the scientific rigor

A dynamic simulation framework for biopharmaceutical capacity management

In biopharmaceutical manufacturing there have been significant increases in drug complexity, risk of clinical failure, regulatory pressures and demand. Compounded with the rise in competition and pressures of maintaining high profit margins this means that manufacturers have to produce more efficient and lower capital intensive processes. More are opting to use simulation tools to perform such revisions and to experiment with various process alternatives, activities which would be time consuming and expensive to carry out within the real system. A review of existing models created for different biopharmaceutical activities using the Extend® (ImagineThat!, CA) platform led to the development of a standard framework to guide the design and construct of a more efficient model. The premise of the framework was that any ‘good’ model should meet five requirement specifications: 1) Intuitive to the user, 2) Short Run-Time, 3) Short Development Time, 4) Relevant and has Ease of Data Input/Output, and 5) Maximised Reusability and Sustainability. Three different case studies were used to test the framework, two biotechnology manufacturing and one fill/finish, with each adding a new layer of understanding and depth to the standard due to the challenges faced. These Included procedures and constraints related to complex resource allocation, multi-product scheduling and complex ‘lookahead’ logic for scheduling activities such as buffer makeup and difficulties surrounding data availability. Subsequently, in order to review the relevance of the models, various analyses were carried out including schedule optimisation, debottlenecking and Monte Carlo simulations, using various data representation tools to deterministically and stochastically answer the different questions within each case study scope. The work in this thesis demonstrated the benefits of using the developed standard as an aid to building decision-making tools for biopharmaceutical manufacturing capacity management, so as to increase the quality and efficiency of decision making to produce less capital intensive processes

Optimisation du développement de nouveaux produits dans l'industrie pharmaceutique par algorithme génétique multicritère

Le développement de nouveaux produits constitue une priorité stratégique de l'industrie pharmaceutique, en raison de la présence d'incertitudes, de la lourdeur des investissements mis en jeu, de l'interdépendance entre projets, de la disponibilité limitée des ressources, du nombre très élevé de décisions impliquées dû à la longueur des processus (de l'ordre d'une dizaine d'années) et de la nature combinatoire du problème. Formellement, le problème se pose ainsi : sélectionner des projets de Ret D parmi des projets candidats pour satisfaire plusieurs critères (rentabilité économique, temps de mise sur le marché) tout en considérant leur nature incertaine. Plus précisément, les points clés récurrents sont relatifs à la détermination des projets à développer une fois que les molécules cibles sont identifiées, leur ordre de traitement et le niveau de ressources à affecter. Dans ce contexte, une approche basée sur le couplage entre un simulateur à événements discrets stochastique (approche Monte Carlo) pour représenter la dynamique du système et un algorithme d'optimisation multicritère (de type NSGA II) pour choisir les produits est proposée. Un modèle par objets développé précédemment pour la conception et l'ordonnancement d'ateliers discontinus, de réutilisation aisée tant par les aspects de structure que de logique de fonctionnement, a été étendu pour intégrer le cas de la gestion de nouveaux produits. Deux cas d'étude illustrent et valident l'approche. Les résultats de simulation ont mis en évidence l'intérêt de trois critères d'évaluation de performance pour l'aide à la décision : le bénéfice actualisé d'une séquence, le risque associé et le temps de mise sur le marché. Ils ont été utilisés dans la formulation multiobjectif du problème d'optimisation. Dans ce contexte, des algorithmes génétiques sont particulièrement intéressants en raison de leur capacité à conduire directement au front de Pareto et à traiter l'aspect combinatoire. La variante NSGA II a été adaptée au problème pour prendre en compte à la fois le nombre et l'ordre de lancement des produits dans une séquence. A partir d'une analyse bicritère réalisée pour un cas d'étude représentatif sur différentes paires de critères pour l'optimisation bi- et tri-critère, la stratégie d'optimisation s'avère efficace et particulièrement élitiste pour détecter les séquences à considérer par le décideur. Seules quelques séquences sont détectées. Parmi elles, les portefeuilles à nombre élevé de produits provoquent des attentes et des retards au lancement ; ils sont éliminés par la stratégie d'optimistaion bicritère. Les petits portefeuilles qui réduisent les files d'attente et le temps de lancement sont ainsi préférés. Le temps se révèle un critère important à optimiser simultanément, mettant en évidence tout l'intérêt d'une optimisation tricritère. Enfin, l'ordre de lancement des produits est une variable majeure comme pour les problèmes d'ordonnancement d'atelier. ABSTRACT : New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline, namely, the presence of uncertainty, the high level of the involved capital costs, the interdependency between projects, the limited availability of resources, the overwhelming number of decisions due to the length of the time horizon (about 10 years) and the combinatorial nature of a portfolio. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R and D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while copying with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGA II type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. An object-oriented model previously developed for batch plant scheduling and design is then extended to embed the case of new product management, which is particularly adequate for reuse of both structure and logic. Two case studies illustrate and validate the approach. From this simulation study, three performance evaluation criteria must be considered for decision making: the Net Present Value (NPV) of a sequence, its associated risk defined as the number of positive occurrences of NPV among the samples and the time to market. Theyv have been used in the multiobjective optimization formulation of the problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. NSGA II has been adapted to the treated case for taking into account both the number of products in a sequence and the drug release order. From an analysis performed for a representative case study on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization, the optimization strategy turns out to be efficient and particularly elitist to detect the sequences which can be considered by the decision makers. Only a few sequences are detected. Among theses sequences, large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bicriteria optimization strategy. Small portfolio reduces queuing and time to launch appear as good candidates. The optimization strategy is interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems

Multiobjective optimization of New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry

New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline, namely, the presence of uncertainty, the high level of the involved capital costs, the interdependency between projects, the limited availability of resources, the overwhelming number of decisions due to the length of the time horizon (about 10 years) and the combinatorial nature of a portfolio. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R and D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while copying with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGA II type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. An object-oriented model previously developed for batch plant scheduling and design is then extended to embed the case of new product management, which is particularly adequate for reuse of both structure and logic. Two case studies illustrate and validate the approach. From this simulation study, three performance evaluation criteria must be considered for decision making: the Net Present Value (NPV) of a sequence, its associated risk defined as the number of positive occurrences of NPV among the samples and the time to market. Theyv have been used in the multiobjective optimization formulation of the problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. NSGA II has been adapted to the treated case for taking into account both the number of products in a sequence and the drug release order. From an analysis performed for a representative case study on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization, the optimization strategy turns out to be efficient and particularly elitist to detect the sequences which can be considered by the decision makers. Only a few sequences are detected. Among theses sequences, large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bicriteria optimization strategy. Small portfolio reduces queuing and time to launch appear as good candidates. The optimization strategy is interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems

Integrated feedstock optimisation for multi-product polymer production

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A chemical complex can have multiple value chains, some of which may span across geographical locations. Decisions regarding the distribution of feedstock and intermediate feedstock to different production units can occur at different time intervals. This is highlighted as two problems, a feedstock distribution problem and an intermediate feedstock distribution problem. Unexpected events can cause an imbalanced value chain which requires timely decision-making to mitigate further adverse consequences. Scheduling methods can provide decision support during such events. The purpose of this research study is to develop an integrated decision support system which handles the two problems as a single problem and maximises profit in the value chain for hourly and daily decision-making. A high-level DSS architecture is presented that incorporates metaheuristic algorithms to generate production schedules for distribution of feedstock through the value chain. The solution evaluation process contains a balancing period to enable the application of metaheuristics to this type of problem and a novel encoding scheme is proposed for the hourly interval problem. It was found that metaheuristics algorithms can be used for this problem and integrated into the proposed decision support system.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: ’n Chemiese kompleks kan verskeie waardekettings hê, waarvan sommige oor geografiese gebiede strek. Besluite rakende die verspreiding van grondstowwe en intermediêre grondstowwe na verskillende produksie-eenhede kan op verskillende tydsintervalle plaasvind. Dit word uitgelig as twee probleme: ’n probleem met die verspreiding van grondstowwe en ’n intermediêre grondstowwe verspreidingsprobleem. Onverwagte gebeure kan ’n ongebalanseerde waardeketting veroorsaak wat tydige besluitneming benodig om verdere gevolge te versag. Beplanningsmetodes kan ondersteuning bied tydens sulke geleenthede. Die doel van hierdie navorsingstudie was om ’n geïntegreerde stelsel vir besluitnemingsondersteuning oor die twee probleme as een probleem te ontwikkel, wat wins in die waardeketting vir uurlikse en daaglikse besluitneming maksimeer. ’n Hoëvlak DSS-argitektuur word aangebied met metaheuristieke om produksieskedules vir verspreidingstowwe deur die waardeketting te genereer. Die oplossingsevalueringsproses bevat ’n balanseerperiode om die metaheuristiek op hierdie tipe probleme toe te pas, en ’n nuwe koderingskema word voorgestel vir die uurlikse intervalprobleem. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat metaheuristieke vir hierdie probleem gebruik kan word en ge¨ıntegreer kan word in die voorgestelde ondersteuningsstelsel vir besluitneming.Doctora