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First time offenders as once and future victims: Using police records to explore the victim-offender overlap in the Turning Point Project
Introduction
The victim-offender overlap is an important phenomenon in criminology (Jennings et al, 2012). The research supporting the existence of the overlap is undisputable and it is arguably one of the most significant facts in criminology (Bottoms and Costello, 2010). Current research has neglected critical areas and answers are needed about how victimisation and offending co-occur and how to identify those victim-offenders who are most harmed (Bottoms and Costello, 2010). Furthermore, there is limited knowledge about what effect interventions such as out of court disposals (OOCD) have on the overlap, or if there is potential to build a triage tool or algorithm to identify the most harmed in future.
Research questions
These will focus on four areas victimisation â including types, frequency and harm, the victim-offender overlap, the impact on police reported victimisation by an OOCD, and finally if from criminal and victimisation history prior to the intervention date can outcomes post be predicted.
1). What does victimisation look like in low-level offenders when explored through police records in terms of prevalence, frequency, types, and harm?
2). What are the patterns and relationships between victimisation and offending in this sample?
3). What is the impact of an out of court disposal that aimed to be as effective at reducing offending as sending individuals to court on victimisation?
4). Can victimisation be predicted, and can who is most at-risk of becoming victim-offenders be predicted?
Methods
This PhD thesis used the police records of offending and victimisation from the sample of low-level offenders taking part in the Turning Point Project. Which was a randomised control trial (RCT) comparing sending low level offenders through court processing against an OOCD. Victimisation and offending data were collected from police data systems (CRIMES, Police National Computer, and ICIS), matched manually using name and date of birth. Before being analysed in R, basic descriptive statistics, correlations, and odds ratios were used for the first two parts of the analysis. Results from the RCT were analysed using chi square, effect sizes and survival analysis. The final section of the thesis used coxâs regression and binomial logistic regression to examine the impact of pre randomisation variables.
Results
The victim-offender overlap was found to be extensive with 63% of the sample reporting a form of victimisation. Victimisation experiences and involvement in offending varied throughout the sample. Violence was most the most prevalent form of both victimisation and offending, caused the most victimisation harm, and had the largest overlap between victimisation and offending. The analysis of harm indicated these low-level offenders reported victimisations that equalled a total 82,180.5 harm points on the Cambridge Crime Harm Index. Using a harm score allowed five different groupings for victimisation to be created, based on the total harm and total number of victimisations suffered. Combining victimisation and offending in this sample showed some complex patterns, and while the two were clearly related this was not a simple positive correlation.
The results of the RCT showed no effect of the intervention on male low-level offenders for either prevalence, frequency, survival, or harm for victimisation. However, a significant backfire effect on all measures was seen for female low-level offenders. Further research concludes this effect is most likely attributable to the significantly higher victimisation occurring prior to randomisation. Finally, the results of the regression analysis indicated key variables associated with increased risk, although the models used here produced high rates of false negatives. Victimisation is more likely to occur if the individual is still involved in offending and key predictive variables differ between victim only, offender only, non-involved and victim-offenders. With victim-offenders tending to be younger, be involved in offending or victimisation prior.
Discussion
Consistent with prior research low-level offenders show a substantial overlap, indicating that low-level can be experiencing problematic and concerning levels of victimisation. While the precise mechanism cannot be discerned from this study, it is proposed that understanding both the individual propensity and the environmental exposure is important. This provides some suggestions for beneficial interventions and how to target victim-offenders effectively. While the results here did not produce a clear case for the benefits of OOCD, the results indicated for male low-level offenders the OOCD was âas good asâ preventing victimisation as court processing. This mirrored the findings for offending for the OOCD, suggesting that inventions that have null effects on offending are likely to have the same on victimisation. The picture for female low-level offenders is more complex, and while it is likely related to the initially higher levels further investigation would be advisable. Finally, while the models used here produced high rates of false negatives and were limited in their explanatory power, they did highlight key variables and groups to focus on. Indicating this may be an approach to explore further in future.
Policy implications
This research suggests six key considerations for policy:
1). Given the amount of victimisation present in low level offenders any policy aimed at low level offenders needs to be written with the explicit understanding that there will be high levels of victimisation present.
2). Prevention of violence is a key policy that should be taken from this thesis. Violence was the most prevalent form of both victimisation and offending and caused the most harm from victimisation.
3). Issues are not distributed equally throughout, and resources should be targeted to those suffering or causing the most harm. Using number alongside harm may provide a context that allows better targeting of resources.
4). Any intervention research into preventing offending needs to include a measure of victimisation alongside that of offending, and vice versa. Without these important effects may be being missed, and policy decisions are not being made based on the best evidence.
5). Due to the link between victimisation and offending in those where cooccurring issues are identified, interventions should aim to approach both simultaneously.
6). Victimisation, offending and becoming a victim-offending appear to be outcomes that could to some degree be predicted through algorithms or machine learning. Therefore, policy should consider utilising this approach to improve the accuracy of decisions.
Conclusion
The study reiterates the importance of the victim-offender overlap and indicates even among low-level offenders the overlap can be extensive and problematic. The results here present important findings on several aspects including the first known analysis of victimisation from a RCT aimed at prevention of offending. The potential to prevent future harm from the policy implications outlined in this study are potentially vast, and the approaching victimisation and offending simultaneously could produce wide ranging benefits. The victim-offender overlap should be the centre of future policy and research.The Jerry Lee Foundatio
ICU nursesâ burnout, organizational commitment, turnover intention and hospital workplace violence: A study in Sichuan province, China
The study aims to research the relationship between burnout, organizational commitment and turnover intention. Additionally, hospital workplace violence and its influencing factors were also explored. A quantitative analysis was conducted with a survey of 305 ICU nurses in tertiary hospitals in Sichuan Province, China. The results reveal that (1) burnout is positively related to turnover intention; (2) organizational commitment is negatively correlated with turnover intention; (3) organizational commitment negatively moderates the effect of emotional exhaustion on turnover intention; (4) continuance commitment has a negative moderation effect on the relationship between emotional exhaustion on turnover intention; and (5) 77.7% of ICU nurses have experienced hospital workplace violence, among which professional title, gender, length of service and employment form are contributors.O estudo tem como objetivo pesquisar a relação entre burnout, compromisso organizacional e intenção de turnover. AlĂ©m disso, a violĂȘncia no ambiente de trabalho hospitalar e seus fatores influenciadores tambĂ©m foram explorados. Uma anĂĄlise quantitativa foi realizada com uma pesquisa de 305 enfermeiros de ICU em hospitais terciĂĄrios na provĂncia de Sichuan, na China. Os resultados revelam que (1) o burnout estĂĄ positivamente relacionado Ă intenção de turnover; (2) compromisso organizacional estĂĄ negativamente correlacionado com a intenção de turnover; (3) compromisso organizacional modera negativamente o efeito do esgotamento emocional sobre a intenção de turnover; (4) compromisso de continuidade tem um efeito negativo de moderação na relação entre exaustĂŁo emocional na intenção de turnover; e (5) 77,7% dos enfermeiros da ICU sofreram violĂȘncia hospitalar no local de trabalho, para a qual o tĂtulo profissional, o gĂȘnero, o tempo de serviço e a forma de emprego sĂŁo contribuintes
Transferring prisoners within the EU framework: its cosmopolitan reflections and existing European detention norms
A perverse side-effect of our interconnected world is that also crime crosses more and more borders. As a result, judicial cooperation in criminal matters is crucial before and after a criminal sentence. The increased global connectivity also gave rise to new paradigms in social sciences. As such, the paradigm of cosmopolitanism has been researched extensively in social sciences but has been largely neglected in criminology. By analyzing case law, European detention norms and EU legal instruments the submission critically evaluates cosmopolitanism in the area of EU judicial cooperation in criminal matters and more specifically to the transfer of prisoners. Cosmopolitanism is perfectly reflected in the mutual recognition principle as the cornerstone to develop the EU area of freedom, security and justice, based on notions of equivalence and trust. This principle is justified because every member state signed the European Convention of Human Rights and is a party of the EU Charter on Human Rights. On the other hand, reality revealed that mutual recognition is not absolute and mutual trust cannot be blind. An IRCP study, published in 2011, highlighted the various and often detrimental material prison conditions in different member states. These variances undermine the assumed mutual trust between member states although European detention norms - such as the European Prison Rules and CPT reportsâ already exist. These norms arenât legally binding and are still considered as âsoft lawâ, simultaneously they gain importance due to increased reference in the ECtHR judgments. The cosmopolitan outlook by the member states related to the transfer of prisoners is in this submission highlighted as being both problematic and promising. Hereby it appears as if the EU rhetoric being a âunity in diversityâ, by applying mutual recognition, is dominantly used to accommodate member states purposes rather than giving a central role to the individual
Abolishing the Evidence-Based Paradigm
The belief that policies and procedures should be data-driven and âevidence-basedâ has become criminal lawâs leading paradigm for reform. This evidence-based paradigm, which promotes quantitative data collection and empirical analysis to shape and assess reforms, has been widely embraced for its potential to cure the emotional and political pathologies that led to mass incarceration. It has influenced reforms across the criminal procedure spectrum, from predictive policing through actuarial sentencing. The paradigmâs appeal is clear: it promises an objective approach that lets data â not politics â lead the way and purports to have no agenda beyond identifying effective, efficient reforms.
This Article challenges the paradigmâs core claims. It shows that the evidence-based paradigmâs objectives, its methodology, and its epistemology advance conventional assumptions about what the criminal legal system should strive to achieve, whom it should target, and whose voices and interests matter. In other words, the evidence-based paradigm is political, and it does have an agenda. And that agenda, informed by neoliberalism and the enduring legacy of white supremacy in the criminal legal system, strengthens â rather than challenges â the existing system.
The Article argues that, if left unchallenged, the evidencebased paradigm will continue to reproduce the systemâs disparities and dysfunctions, under the veneer of scientific objectivity. Thus, it must be abolished and replaced with a new approach that advances a true paradigm shift about the aims of criminal legal reform and the role and definition of data and empiricism in advancing that vision
Concept and measurement of political risk: from theory to practice
Concepts, definitions, challenges. Rating methodologies and the Arab Spring: a comparative analysis. Operationalization. The role of expert judgment.Concepts, definitions, challenges. Rating methodologies and the Arab Spring: a comparative analysis. Operationalization. The role of expert judgment.LUISS PhD Thesi
The use of social media in marketing musicians : focus on independent music management companies
The digital era has brought great changes in the music industry and to the importance of the traditional set up of major labels and the independent labels. The digitalization of music and the rise of the social media has enabled individual musicians and various forms of independent music companies to succeed and grow their markets. The topic of this master thesis is the use of social media in marketing musicians focusing on the expert interviews from independent management companies. The purpose is to understand better the approach of the independent management companies on musicians and how the social media strategies are built to gain recognition and popularity. The research is divided into three sub-questions: which social media channels are used in promotion of musicians and what is their nature, how content can be used to get better engagement with fans and how social interaction can build partnerships to create new opportunities through social media?
The theoretical background is built through the three sub-questions. Firstly, we are observing what kind of social media channels there are, how the right channel is chosen and how marketing objectives and positioning influence the choice of channel. Secondly, the different types of content are explored, what is the benefit of creating content and the different categorization of them. Thirdly, the effectuation theory is examined to study how the musicians can use social interaction to create new opportunities. The data is collected through semi-structured interviews from three Berlin based independent management companies who represent various number of musicians internationally. This study is a qualitative research using the grounded theory to build a better understanding on the topic, which doesnât have a strong base from earlier research.
The results of this study show that the independent management companies use the mainstream social media channels, which are Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Youtube and they each have an individual nature to be approached with. The content created for musicians are music, photos, videos and playlists that can improve engagement though personalization, scheduling and optimization. The new business opportunities through social interaction are mainly build with other artists, brands and charities. The key is to understand what are the means the musicians can use and what risks and losses are they willing to take in pursuing these opportunities. Overall, the marketing of musicians using social media seems to have established practices from independent management company point of view, however the practices evolve mainly around the mainstream social media
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