Measuring the radicalisation risk in social networks

Social networks (SNs) have become a powerful tool for the jihadism as they serve as recruitment assets, live forums, psychological warfare, as well as sharing platforms. SNs enable vulnerable individuals to reach radicalized people, hence triggering their own radicalization process. There are many vulnerability factors linked to socio-economic and demographic conditions that make jihadist militants suitable targets for their radicalization. We focus on these vulnera bility factors, studying, understanding, and identifying them on the Internet. Here, we present a set of radicalization indicators and a model to assess them using a data set of tweets published by several Islamic State of Iraq and Sham sympathizers. Results show that there is a strong correlation between the values assigned by the model to the indicatorsThis work was supported in part by EphemeCH, Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity, under the European Regional Development Fund FEDER, under Grant TIN2014-56494-C4-4-P and in part by the Justice Programme of the European Union (2014-2020) 723180, RiskTrack, under Grant JUST-2015-JCOO-AG and Grant JUST-2015-JCOO-AG-1

Understanding the Roots of Radicalisation on Twitter

In an increasingly digital world, identifying signs of online extremism sits at the top of the priority list for counter-extremist agencies. Researchers and governments are investing in the creation of advanced information technologies to identify and counter extremism through intelligent large-scale analysis of online data. However, to the best of our knowledge, these technologies are neither based on, nor do they take advantage of, the existing theories and studies of radicalisation. In this paper we propose a computational approach for detecting and predicting the radicalisation influence a user is exposed to, grounded on the notion of ’roots of radicalisation’ from social science models. This approach has been applied to analyse and compare the radicalisation level of 112 pro-ISIS vs.112 “general" Twitter users. Our results show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms in detecting and predicting radicalisation influence, obtaining up to 0.9 F-1 measure for detection and between 0.7 and 0.8 precision for prediction. While this is an initial attempt towards the effective combination of social and computational perspectives, more work is needed to bridge these disciplines, and to build on their strengths to target the problem of online radicalisation

Security through aid: countering violent extremism and terrorism with Australia’s aid program

Overview This paper argues that countering violent extremism (CVE) and terrorism are international security and development issues. Australia’s foreign aid should be used to strengthen resilience to violent extremist ideologies. Improving governance in weak states can help to deny terrorists the easy recruiting grounds of lawless communities. The ASPI report argues that there are several ways to better leverage our foreign aid program to counter terrorism and violent extremism. Where a clear need has been identified, implement direct CVE aid programs Apply a CVE and counter-terrorism ‘filter’ to our aid programs Develop targeted reporting on CVE aid programs Use InnovationXchange to explore avenues for implementing CVE into the aid strategy Share information on CVE and aid Lead the debate to modernise official development assistance (ODA) reportin

Social Cohesion. A Basis for the Primary Prevention of Radicalisation in Cities.

Social cohesion has been widely used as a normative concept in European debate since the late 1990s. The contribution relates the concept to (primary prevention of) radicalisation and shows that a low degree of social cohesion enhances the danger of extremism. Our study in urban districts of Toulouse/France uses an adapted model of social cohesion that combines statistical data with qualitative data. The aim of the study is to describe the living circumstances in the districts in detail and to compare specific risks and protective factors in the territories. It can be shown that matching policies or social interventions may be developed–depending on the specific situation of each territory. Especially different perceptions of safety, the meaning of “feeling at home”, and the identification of inhabitants with “their” neighbourhood play an important role in terms of social cohesion and thus should be fostered in order to prevent violent, anti-democratic radicalisation. In socially marginalized neighbourhoods feelings of belonging may serve as a resource if municipality and the state executive manage to enter in a trustful relationship with the inhabitants

Europe: reinforcing existing trends

The main impact of 9/11 on European societies has been to crystallize the pre-existing debate on immigration around the culturalist paradigm. In mainstream thinking the culture of the immigrants came to be seen as the major obstacle to their integration. Issues as discrimination, disadvantaged socioeconomic position, and unemployment in the immigrant communities and their impact upon radicalization receded in the publics’ mind. Whilst the febrile debate on the compatibility of Islam with western values that had ensued has abated, a decade long Islam-centered security obsession has left its mark. Anti-Muslim prejudice has gained traction in mainstream thinking – even if its most extremist expression has again become the hallmark of a new generation of radical right groups, who claim the anti-Islam and anti-immigration themes as their unique selling proposition. But as was the case before 9/11, the situation differs among countries, with some countries displaying a more serene debate about the place of Muslims and Islam in society than others. One could argue that as apprehension among the public about Islam fluctuates, polity and media shoulder a crucial responsibility as to the way this issue is framed and discussed.Immigration and integration will indeed undoubtedly continue to be matters of intense policy discussion, sometimes (but not always) linked to Islam. Since Europe too has become an immigration continent, it experiences the same fluctuating apprehensions about the newcomers’ impact on society as the United States did with the nativist movement from the 19th century onwards. Nativist anti-immigration sentiments indeed remain present in European countries as well as grievances resulting from the fragile socio-economical position of immigration communities. This mix remains a potent cocktail for polarization and a major challenge for society in general. But they are now by and large devoid of the national security concerns they were associated with in the years following 9/11

Effective Counterterrorism: What Have We Learned so Far?

The fight against terrorism, in particular of Islamist nature, has become a focus area of foreign and security policies in Western countries and around the world. This substantial effort is however only to a limited extent matched by adequate evaluations as to its actual success. This paper offers an overview of the counterterrorism effectiveness literature in terms of main areas of interest, conceptualisation and operationalisation difficulties as well as methodological considerations regarding the types of methods used, validity and reliability evaluations. It discusses the different understandings of causality and proposes a working definition of counterterrorism effectiveness. We find that a main focus of the literature lies on the impact component of effectiveness, often in the sense of a reduction of terrorist attacks in general or a reduction of certain methods of terrorism such as suicide attacks. Our model article "What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model" by Kaplan et al. (2005) illustrates the above-mentioned issues and reflects the mainstream approach in this field. The article uses econometric methods to determine the impact-effectiveness of counter-terrorism and reflects the problematique associated with attempts to infer a causal relationship between counterterrorism policies and the occurrence of terrorism.Counterterrorism, effectiveness, causality, quantitative and qualitative research methods

Fighting fire with fire: target audience responses to online anti-violence campaigns

With the Syrian civil war entering its third year, drawing an increasing number of young Westerners into the fray, this report sought to discover how audiences respond to government-sponsored and community-generated online efforts to counter violent extremism. Overview Prepared by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute under contract to New South Wales Police Force and funded by Australia-New Zealand Counter-Terrorism Committee (ANZCTC). As the Syrian civil war entered its third year, drawing an increasing number of young Westerners into the fray, ASPI spoke with young Muslim Sydneysiders about Australia’s online efforts in countering violent extremism (CVE). This report sought to discover how such audiences respond to government-sponsored and community-generated anti-violence campaigns. The summary report outlines the main findings and recommendations from the full report. On the whole this report challenges approaches that only discuss Muslim youth as being highly vulnerable and in dire need of empowerment to resist violent propaganda. Instead, it shows that some have taken a lead role in challenging violent narratives and are empowering themselves. This report is intended for use by government agencies and communities to inform their future work in this area. Appendix 2 in the full report, by Kristy Bryden, considers international approaches to countering violent narratives online, particularly those developed by the UK, the US, Denmark, Canada and the Netherlands

Artificial Intelligence and Online Extremism: Challenges and Opportunities

Radicalisation is a process that historically used to be triggered mainly through social interactions in places of worship, religious schools, prisons, meeting venues, etc. Today, this process is often initiated on the Internet, where radicalisation content is easily shared, and potential candidates are reached more easily, rapidly, and at an unprecedented scale (Edwards and Gribbon, 2013; Von Behr et al., 2013). In recent years, some terrorist organisations succeeded in leveraging the power of social media to recruit individuals to their cause and ideology (Farwell, 2014). It is often the case that such recruitment attempts are initiated on open social media platforms (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, YouTube) but then move onto private messages and/or encrypted platforms (e.g., WhatsApp, Telegram). Such encrypted communication channels have also been used by terrorist cells and networks to plan their operations (Gartenstein-Ross and Barr). To counteract the activities of such organisations, and to halt the spread of radicalisation content, some governments, social media platforms, and counter-extremism agencies are investing in the creation of advanced information technologies to identify and counter extremism through the development of Artificial Intelligent (AI) solutions (Correa and Sureka, 2013; Agarwal and Sureka 2015a; Scrivens and Davies, 2018). These solutions have three main objectives: (i) understanding the phenomena behind online extremism (the communication flow, the use of propaganda, the different stages of the radicalisation process, the variety of radicalisation channels, etc.), (ii) automatically detecting radical users and content, and (iii) predicting the adoption and spreading of extremist ideas. Despite current advancements in the area, multiple challenges still exist, including: (i) the lack of a common definition of prohibited radical and extremist internet activity, (ii) the lack of solid verification of the datasets collected to develop detection and prediction models, (iii) the lack of cooperation across research fields, since most of the developed technological solutions are neither based on, nor do they take advantage of, existing social theories and studies of radicalisation, (iv) the constant evolution of behaviours associated with online extremism in order to avoid being detected by the developed algorithms (changes in terminology, creation of new accounts, etc.) and, (v) the development of ethical guidelines and legislation to regulate the design and development of AI technology to counter radicalisation. In this book chapter we provide an overview of the current technological advancements towards addressing the problem of online extremism (with a particular focus on Jihadism). We identify some of the limitations of current technologies, and highlight some of the potential opportunities. Our aim is to reflect on the current state of the art and to stimulate discussions on the future design and development of AI technology to target the problem of online extremism

Youth Resilience to Violent Extremism: An Evaluation of a Mentorship Intervention in Kenya

In response to the rise in extremist violence within Kenya, the Strengthening Resilience to Violent Extremism Programme was launched to counter the threat of violent extremism (VE) and prevent the radicalisation and recruitment of vulnerable youth. To assess the extent to which the Programme was able to achieve its objective, an evaluation of the Programme's key component – a mentoring and counselling-based project intervention, was conducted between 2017-19. In total, 347 youth,  identified as being 'at risk', were included as part of the evaluation. This paper presents the principal findings of the evaluation and assesses the effect of the intervention on three key dimensions: the youth's attitudes, their social networks and levels of awareness of the risks of VE and the strategies for countering violent extremist activities. Using logit models and controlling for any confounding effects of socio-demographic differences, the evaluation finds evidence of improvements in the at-risk groups' knowledge of the risks posed by VE groups as well as the strategies for countering VE. However, mixed results were noted in the groups' attitudes towards violence, their levels of self-confidence and the extent and diversity of their social networks. Across two of the dimensions, more significant effects were also observed among 'at-risk' groups who were employed versus those who were unemployed. Some variability in outcomes was also found among at-risk groups who had been exposed to the intervention for longer compared to those who had been in the Project for shorter periods. Taken together, these findings underscore the need for extending the Project's existing engagements and incorporating a nuanced and sustained approach for engendering more long-term change. The analytical insights presented also offer critical lessons for designing and implementing similar interventions in Kenya and in the wider global context